Caribbean - Central America Weather
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- cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N18W TO 20N17W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA AFTER 12/1200 UTC
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB LOW NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N17W. THE 700 MB
TROUGHING EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG 18N TO 21N. ALSO...TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
LOCATED FROM 06N-17N E OF 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 12W-22W.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N38W TO 25N36W MOVING WNW AT 15-20
KT. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 21N37W
AND COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN
35W-42W. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AND DUST SURROUND THE WAVE LIMITING
DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
20N-24N BETWEEN 37W-42W.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N69W TO 18N67W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVEN...SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AXIS. THIS WAS CONFIRMED EARLIER BY A
12/1438 UTC ASCAT PASS IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO ALONG
67W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
65W-71W...AND IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N19W TO
11N36W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
11N36W TO 10N49W TO 08N59W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
AT THIS TIME.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N18W TO 20N17W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA AFTER 12/1200 UTC
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB LOW NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N17W. THE 700 MB
TROUGHING EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG 18N TO 21N. ALSO...TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
LOCATED FROM 06N-17N E OF 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 12W-22W.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N38W TO 25N36W MOVING WNW AT 15-20
KT. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 21N37W
AND COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN
35W-42W. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AND DUST SURROUND THE WAVE LIMITING
DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
20N-24N BETWEEN 37W-42W.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N69W TO 18N67W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVEN...SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AXIS. THIS WAS CONFIRMED EARLIER BY A
12/1438 UTC ASCAT PASS IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO ALONG
67W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
65W-71W...AND IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N19W TO
11N36W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
11N36W TO 10N49W TO 08N59W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
AT THIS TIME.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AUGUST STARTS WITH A RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT IN EL SALVADOR
July 2012 ended as the 10th driest July on record nation-wide but in the east part of El Salvador it was the 2nd driest on record (only 1977 was drier) but as August arrived the rains returned to the east part of El Salvador, especially last week after Ernesto's outer bands produced beneficial rains during 3 days, in fact the eastern part of the country is now wetter than normal for the August 1 to August 11 period. This is a comparison of July's total rainfall with the amounts registered from August 1-11 2012 and the climatological average for the period.
Acajutla, southwest El Salvador
July 2012: 261 mm/10.28 in
July (climatology): 303 mm/11.93 in
August 1-11 2012: 113 mm/4.45 in
August 1-11 (climatology): 97 mm/3.83 in
Santa Ana, northwest El Salvador
July 2012: 287 mm/11.30 in
July (climatology): 286 mm/11.26 in
August 1-11 2012: 146 mm/5.75 in
August 1-11 (climatology): 118 mm/4.13 in
San Salvador, central El Salvador
July 2012: 306 mm/12.05 in
July (climatology): 328 mm/12.91 in
August 1-11 2012: 105 mm/4.13 in
August 1-11 (climatology): 115 mm/4.53 in
Perquin, northeast El Salvador
July 2012: 176 mm/6.93 in
July (climatology): 290 mm/11.42 in
August 1-11 2012: 212 mm/8.35 in
August 1-11 (climatology): 124 mm/5.24 in
San Miguel, southeast El Salvador
July 2012: 9 mm/0.35 in
July (climatology): 198 mm/7.80 in
August 1-11 2012: 95 mm/3.74 in
August 1-11 (climatology): 88 mm/3.45 in
La Union, southeast El Salvador
July 2012: 10 mm/0.39 in
July (climatology): 173 mm/6.81 in
August 1-11 2012: 124 mm/4.88 in
August 1-11 (climatology): 81 mm/3.20 in
July 2012 ended as the 10th driest July on record nation-wide but in the east part of El Salvador it was the 2nd driest on record (only 1977 was drier) but as August arrived the rains returned to the east part of El Salvador, especially last week after Ernesto's outer bands produced beneficial rains during 3 days, in fact the eastern part of the country is now wetter than normal for the August 1 to August 11 period. This is a comparison of July's total rainfall with the amounts registered from August 1-11 2012 and the climatological average for the period.
Acajutla, southwest El Salvador
July 2012: 261 mm/10.28 in
July (climatology): 303 mm/11.93 in
August 1-11 2012: 113 mm/4.45 in
August 1-11 (climatology): 97 mm/3.83 in
Santa Ana, northwest El Salvador
July 2012: 287 mm/11.30 in
July (climatology): 286 mm/11.26 in
August 1-11 2012: 146 mm/5.75 in
August 1-11 (climatology): 118 mm/4.13 in
San Salvador, central El Salvador
July 2012: 306 mm/12.05 in
July (climatology): 328 mm/12.91 in
August 1-11 2012: 105 mm/4.13 in
August 1-11 (climatology): 115 mm/4.53 in
Perquin, northeast El Salvador
July 2012: 176 mm/6.93 in
July (climatology): 290 mm/11.42 in
August 1-11 2012: 212 mm/8.35 in
August 1-11 (climatology): 124 mm/5.24 in
San Miguel, southeast El Salvador
July 2012: 9 mm/0.35 in
July (climatology): 198 mm/7.80 in
August 1-11 2012: 95 mm/3.74 in
August 1-11 (climatology): 88 mm/3.45 in
La Union, southeast El Salvador
July 2012: 10 mm/0.39 in
July (climatology): 173 mm/6.81 in
August 1-11 2012: 124 mm/4.88 in
August 1-11 (climatology): 81 mm/3.20 in
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. Some showers will fall today in PR as trailing moisture from the Tropical Wave (Ex TD7) moves thru.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST MON AUG 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WITH ASSOCIATED TUTT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TUTT WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE FILLING...AND BECOMING SITUATED
JUST WEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE NOW SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION...WHILE A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND
TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE CREATED BY THE DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG WITH DECENT AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WAS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FUEL STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. PRESENTLY MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINED OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND MOVE WESTWARD.
DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS EXPECTED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO TRAIL THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AFFECT
PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND SOME OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS PARTS CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND
SOME OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. BY LATE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE ACTIVITY
TO SHIFT MORE TO PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. BY TUESDAY AND THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY EXPECTED MOSTLY FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY AND LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION IN
ISOLATED SPOTS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. NO MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DIRECTLY
AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT TJPS THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AT TJMZ AFTER 13/17Z AND AT TJBQ AFTER 13/18Z RESULTING IN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS. LLVL WINDS ARE ESE 15 TO 30 KNOTS AND WILL SHIFT TO E
10 TO 25 KNOTS AFT 13/12Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 79 / 30 40 40 20
STT 88 78 90 79 / 30 30 30 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST MON AUG 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WITH ASSOCIATED TUTT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TUTT WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE FILLING...AND BECOMING SITUATED
JUST WEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE NOW SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION...WHILE A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND
TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE CREATED BY THE DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG WITH DECENT AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WAS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FUEL STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. PRESENTLY MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINED OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND MOVE WESTWARD.
DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS EXPECTED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO TRAIL THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AFFECT
PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND SOME OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS PARTS CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND
SOME OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. BY LATE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE ACTIVITY
TO SHIFT MORE TO PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. BY TUESDAY AND THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY EXPECTED MOSTLY FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY AND LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION IN
ISOLATED SPOTS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. NO MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DIRECTLY
AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT TJPS THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AT TJMZ AFTER 13/17Z AND AT TJBQ AFTER 13/18Z RESULTING IN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS. LLVL WINDS ARE ESE 15 TO 30 KNOTS AND WILL SHIFT TO E
10 TO 25 KNOTS AFT 13/12Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 79 / 30 40 40 20
STT 88 78 90 79 / 30 30 30 30
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Hi BZSTORM. Here we go again with something going to the Yucatan. This is the 2 PM EDT TWO for Ex TD7.
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE MOVING OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD TO HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR
20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE MOVING OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD TO HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR
20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
It looks like things will be tranquil in the Atlantic for now,but dont let your guard down as things can change quickly especially as the peak of the hurricane season arrives on August 15th.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST MON AUG 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT TO THE NNE OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN/FILL OVR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA MID WEEK. RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH SUN WITH ANOTHER TUTT
TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS TUTT TO THE NNE GRADUALLY FILLS AND
GETS ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROF EMERGING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
EXPECT MAINLY LOCAL EFFECTS TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WX PATTERN WITH
SOME PRECIP ENHANCEMENT FRI BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE.
OVERALL...PATTERN LOOKS SOMEWHAT WETTER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED RECENTLY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS WITH BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND REDUCED TRADE WINDS.
INVEST 93L IS HEADING TO THE NORTHWEST AND WHILE IT MAY EVENTUALLY
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT LIKELY TO TROUBLE ANY LAND AREAS
OTHER THAN THE AZORES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
TROPICS...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ANY
DEVELOPMENT AND DO NOT SUGGEST ANY OTHER AREAS OF POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT/INTEREST IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. SO AS WE ENTER THE
MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE SEASON ALL OF A SUDDEN CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ATLC BASIN REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT SVRL DAYS WITH JUST VCTS AT JMZ.
&&
.MARINE...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
AND SEAS 3-5 FT WITH TSTMS MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST OF PR AND
AFFECTING THE MONA PASSAGE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 90 75 88 / 10 10 20 30
STT 79 82 79 81 / 20 20 50 50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST MON AUG 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT TO THE NNE OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN/FILL OVR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA MID WEEK. RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH SUN WITH ANOTHER TUTT
TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS TUTT TO THE NNE GRADUALLY FILLS AND
GETS ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROF EMERGING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
EXPECT MAINLY LOCAL EFFECTS TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WX PATTERN WITH
SOME PRECIP ENHANCEMENT FRI BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE.
OVERALL...PATTERN LOOKS SOMEWHAT WETTER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED RECENTLY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS WITH BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND REDUCED TRADE WINDS.
INVEST 93L IS HEADING TO THE NORTHWEST AND WHILE IT MAY EVENTUALLY
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT LIKELY TO TROUBLE ANY LAND AREAS
OTHER THAN THE AZORES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
TROPICS...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ANY
DEVELOPMENT AND DO NOT SUGGEST ANY OTHER AREAS OF POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT/INTEREST IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. SO AS WE ENTER THE
MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE SEASON ALL OF A SUDDEN CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ATLC BASIN REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT SVRL DAYS WITH JUST VCTS AT JMZ.
&&
.MARINE...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
AND SEAS 3-5 FT WITH TSTMS MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST OF PR AND
AFFECTING THE MONA PASSAGE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 90 75 88 / 10 10 20 30
STT 79 82 79 81 / 20 20 50 50
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT AXIS HAS NOW SHIFTED WEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WITH WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS HELPING TO CREATE FAIRLY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SHALLOW
PATCHES OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS QUICKLY
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WATERS AND BRUSHING PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS...FEW TO ISOLATED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
BRUSH MAINLY SOME OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS A SLOT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. BY MID MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON..LOCAL TERRAIN AND AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO INDUCE SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WITH
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IF ANY.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT BETTER CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL NOT ANTICIPATED. ON FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION
ALONG AND AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS ONCE AGAIN WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING TIME OF
MAX HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
EXPECT A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE TO
HIGH CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST AND A DRYER AIR MASS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURATIONS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14/17Z. E-ESE LOW
LEVEL WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 88 79 / 10 20 30 10
STT 89 79 89 79 / 20 50 50 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT AXIS HAS NOW SHIFTED WEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WITH WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS HELPING TO CREATE FAIRLY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SHALLOW
PATCHES OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS QUICKLY
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WATERS AND BRUSHING PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS...FEW TO ISOLATED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
BRUSH MAINLY SOME OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS A SLOT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. BY MID MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON..LOCAL TERRAIN AND AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO INDUCE SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WITH
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IF ANY.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT BETTER CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL NOT ANTICIPATED. ON FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION
ALONG AND AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS ONCE AGAIN WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING TIME OF
MAX HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
EXPECT A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE TO
HIGH CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST AND A DRYER AIR MASS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURATIONS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14/17Z. E-ESE LOW
LEVEL WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 88 79 / 10 20 30 10
STT 89 79 89 79 / 20 50 50 20
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- tropicana
- Category 5
- Posts: 8056
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Check this scary video out, this was filmed in the NW suburb of Glencoe in Trinidad early on Saturday morning, August 11 2012... after 75-100 mm of rain fell in a matter of 2 hours over the moutainous areas. Very very scary.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAZz5gW3 ... ata_player
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAZz5gW3 ... ata_player
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT TO THE NNE WILL CONTINUE TO FILL THEN GET
ABSORBED BY LARGER TROF EMERGING OFF THE U.S. NORTHEAST COAST THU.
ATLC RIDGE WILL THEN BECOME THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. TUTT WILL REESTABLISH OVR THE AREA AGAIN NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LINGERING TUTT AXIS ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO YIELD SVRL
DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER STARTING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SAT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT FRI AS SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE BUILDS WWD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE ALSO TWO
OTHER LOW LEVEL FEATURES FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ONE ON FRI
AND ANOTHER ON SAT. THE ONE ON FRI APPEARS TO BE A TUTT INDUCED
PERTURBATION WHILE THE ONE ON SAT IT APPEARS TO BE A TROPICAL
WAVE. WED AND FRI LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS WITH THU AND SAT
BEING LESS ACTIVE.
LOCAL AREA THEN BECOMES UNDER AN INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT
FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A RETROGRESSING TUTT WITH
RAPID EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. SUN-TUE LOOK PRETTY
DRY AT THIS POINT. A TROPICAL WAVE THAT JUST EMERGED OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST IS FCST TO ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA NEXT THU. NONE OF
THE MODELS SHOW ANY TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS WAVE. THE 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS A TC DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ERN ATLC
FROM ANOTHER AFRICAN DISTURBANCE BUT RECURVING BEFORE REACHING
50W.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 16Z WED BUT TSTMS LIKELY TOMORROW ACROSS
SW PR IN THE VCNTY OF JMZ. SCT-NMRS THU-SAT ESPECIALLY FRI LIKELY
AFFECTING JMZ.
&&
.MARINE...CG LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH TSTMS MOVING OFF OF WRN PR. OTHERWISE...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
PATTERN WITH 3-5 FT SEAS AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER NEAR TSTMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 79 90 / 20 30 10 20
STT 79 89 79 90 / 50 50 20 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT TO THE NNE WILL CONTINUE TO FILL THEN GET
ABSORBED BY LARGER TROF EMERGING OFF THE U.S. NORTHEAST COAST THU.
ATLC RIDGE WILL THEN BECOME THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. TUTT WILL REESTABLISH OVR THE AREA AGAIN NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LINGERING TUTT AXIS ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO YIELD SVRL
DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER STARTING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SAT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT FRI AS SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE BUILDS WWD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE ALSO TWO
OTHER LOW LEVEL FEATURES FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ONE ON FRI
AND ANOTHER ON SAT. THE ONE ON FRI APPEARS TO BE A TUTT INDUCED
PERTURBATION WHILE THE ONE ON SAT IT APPEARS TO BE A TROPICAL
WAVE. WED AND FRI LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS WITH THU AND SAT
BEING LESS ACTIVE.
LOCAL AREA THEN BECOMES UNDER AN INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT
FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A RETROGRESSING TUTT WITH
RAPID EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. SUN-TUE LOOK PRETTY
DRY AT THIS POINT. A TROPICAL WAVE THAT JUST EMERGED OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST IS FCST TO ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA NEXT THU. NONE OF
THE MODELS SHOW ANY TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS WAVE. THE 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS A TC DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ERN ATLC
FROM ANOTHER AFRICAN DISTURBANCE BUT RECURVING BEFORE REACHING
50W.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 16Z WED BUT TSTMS LIKELY TOMORROW ACROSS
SW PR IN THE VCNTY OF JMZ. SCT-NMRS THU-SAT ESPECIALLY FRI LIKELY
AFFECTING JMZ.
&&
.MARINE...CG LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH TSTMS MOVING OFF OF WRN PR. OTHERWISE...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
PATTERN WITH 3-5 FT SEAS AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER NEAR TSTMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 79 90 / 20 30 10 20
STT 79 89 79 90 / 50 50 20 30
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
tropicana wrote:Check this scary video out, this was filmed in the NW suburb of Glencoe in Trinidad early on Saturday morning, August 11 2012... after 75-100 mm of rain fell in a matter of 2 hours over the moutainous areas. Very very scary.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAZz5gW3 ... ata_player
Is scary indeed Justin. Hopefully,all returns to normal very soon over there.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
tropicana wrote:Check this scary video out, this was filmed in the NW suburb of Glencoe in Trinidad early on Saturday morning, August 11 2012... after 75-100 mm of rain fell in a matter of 2 hours over the moutainous areas. Very very scary.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAZz5gW3 ... ata_player
wow, what an amazing amount of water.
Thanks for posting
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Too many hurricanes to remember
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST WED AUG 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE PASSING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE USVI AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE DAY AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST THEN BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE VALUES INCREASING TO ALMOST 2 INCHES
ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...ONCE AGAIN COMBINING WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS
WEEKEND...GFS MODEL INDICATES A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
COMING IN FROM THE EAST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO ABOUT 1.3 INCHES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 15/12Z. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLDS MAINLY BTW 020-070 KFT WITH
ACCOMPANYING PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND NRN
LEEWARDS...AS WELL AS VCTY TNCM...TKPK..TIST...TISX..AND TJSJ.
EARLIER TJSJ 15/00Z SOUNDING AS WELL AS LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE
SUGGESTS MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS BLO 12K FT AT 10 TO 20 KTS FROM
SFC-25K FT. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS IS FCST AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET OR LESS.
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF PUERTO RICO TO THE WEST MAY AFFECT THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TO THE WEST OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE MONA PASSAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 88 79 / 30 10 20 20
STT 90 80 90 80 / 40 20 30 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST WED AUG 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE PASSING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE USVI AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE DAY AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST THEN BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE VALUES INCREASING TO ALMOST 2 INCHES
ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...ONCE AGAIN COMBINING WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS
WEEKEND...GFS MODEL INDICATES A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
COMING IN FROM THE EAST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO ABOUT 1.3 INCHES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 15/12Z. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLDS MAINLY BTW 020-070 KFT WITH
ACCOMPANYING PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND NRN
LEEWARDS...AS WELL AS VCTY TNCM...TKPK..TIST...TISX..AND TJSJ.
EARLIER TJSJ 15/00Z SOUNDING AS WELL AS LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE
SUGGESTS MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS BLO 12K FT AT 10 TO 20 KTS FROM
SFC-25K FT. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS IS FCST AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET OR LESS.
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF PUERTO RICO TO THE WEST MAY AFFECT THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TO THE WEST OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE MONA PASSAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 88 79 / 30 10 20 20
STT 90 80 90 80 / 40 20 30 30
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
msbee wrote:tropicana wrote:Check this scary video out, this was filmed in the NW suburb of Glencoe in Trinidad early on Saturday morning, August 11 2012... after 75-100 mm of rain fell in a matter of 2 hours over the moutainous areas. Very very scary.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAZz5gW3 ... ata_player
wow, what an amazing amount of water.
Thanks for posting
Hi Barbara



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- tropicana
- Category 5
- Posts: 8056
- Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2003 6:48 pm
- Location: Niagara Falls, Ontario, Canada
- Contact:
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
UPDATE Wed Aug 15/12 8amET
Overnight showers across some of the islands, for the 12 hours ending at 8amET this morning, 10mm of rain has fallen at Grantley Adams in Barbados, 16mm at Foul Bay east of the airport in Barbados, 9mm at Arnos Vale in St Vincent, 5mm at Hewannora St Lucia, 17mm at Vigie Airport St Lucia, 2mm at Golden Rock St Kitts, 3mm at VC Bird Antigua and a deluge at LeLamentin in Martinique to start off the Assumption Day Holiday there with 31mm. Piarco International Airport in Trinidad was reporting a thunderstorm to the east of the aerodrome at 8am.
Unstable air across the Eastern Caribbean will lead to an unsettled weather pattern through today. Heavy rainfall has been reported in Honduras overnight due to the ex-tropical depression 7 that caused all the problems in Trinidad and Dominica last weekend.... 22mm of rain has fallen overnight at La Ceiba and 27mm at Roatan, both in E Honduras.
-justin-
Overnight showers across some of the islands, for the 12 hours ending at 8amET this morning, 10mm of rain has fallen at Grantley Adams in Barbados, 16mm at Foul Bay east of the airport in Barbados, 9mm at Arnos Vale in St Vincent, 5mm at Hewannora St Lucia, 17mm at Vigie Airport St Lucia, 2mm at Golden Rock St Kitts, 3mm at VC Bird Antigua and a deluge at LeLamentin in Martinique to start off the Assumption Day Holiday there with 31mm. Piarco International Airport in Trinidad was reporting a thunderstorm to the east of the aerodrome at 8am.
Unstable air across the Eastern Caribbean will lead to an unsettled weather pattern through today. Heavy rainfall has been reported in Honduras overnight due to the ex-tropical depression 7 that caused all the problems in Trinidad and Dominica last weekend.... 22mm of rain has fallen overnight at La Ceiba and 27mm at Roatan, both in E Honduras.
-justin-
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- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good afternoon.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST WED AUG 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...OLD TUTT AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FA EARLY TONIGHT...
AS INVERTED TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS MOVE
NORTHWEST TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE FA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA LATE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY END
THIS EVENING...WITH A BAND OF DRY AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH VERY EARLY THURSDAY...YIELDING
A RATHER DRY BUT BRIEF SPELL OF WEATHER. THEREAFTER...INVERTED
TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY. THESE FEATURES AND
ASSOCIATED FAIRLY DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
WITH THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 14Z THROUGH 22Z
THURSDAY. ANOTHER DRY PATCH IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROPICAL WAVE AND
LIMITED ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
FA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN OVERALL DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
NEAR TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT 15/23Z IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST TOWARD AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY...AS INVERTED TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS
APPROACH AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 87 79 88 / 20 50 20 30
STT 80 90 80 90 / 20 50 30 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST WED AUG 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS...OLD TUTT AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FA EARLY TONIGHT...
AS INVERTED TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS MOVE
NORTHWEST TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE FA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA LATE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY END
THIS EVENING...WITH A BAND OF DRY AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH VERY EARLY THURSDAY...YIELDING
A RATHER DRY BUT BRIEF SPELL OF WEATHER. THEREAFTER...INVERTED
TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY. THESE FEATURES AND
ASSOCIATED FAIRLY DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
WITH THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 14Z THROUGH 22Z
THURSDAY. ANOTHER DRY PATCH IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROPICAL WAVE AND
LIMITED ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
FA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN OVERALL DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
NEAR TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT 15/23Z IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST TOWARD AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY...AS INVERTED TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS
APPROACH AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 87 79 88 / 20 50 20 30
STT 80 90 80 90 / 20 50 30 30
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- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO A MORE EAST NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON
FRIDAY. INVERTED TUTT AND ITS REFLECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...INVERTED TUTT AND ITS REFLECTION WILL COMBINE TODAY
WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE LOCAL EFFECTS TO CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA UNTIL
EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION WITH
THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS WELL AS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AT ANY GIVEN
MOMENT...BUT THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
STARTING ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GO
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY...ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN K-INDEX FOR SUNDAY. THIS MEANS THAT FOR THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK AND INTO SATURDAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEN ON SUNDAY A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...BANDS OF MOIST AND DRY AIR WILL PASS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING SHRA AND SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. AFT 16/16Z AREAS OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP WITH MVFR LCLY IFR CONDS IN WRN PR AND TJMZ
WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS. IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED AFT 16/21Z. LLVL
WINDS E TO SE 5 TO 15 KT UP THRU 30 KFT. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS 30-42
KFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 50 20 30 40
STT 90 80 90 80 / 50 20 20 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO A MORE EAST NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON
FRIDAY. INVERTED TUTT AND ITS REFLECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...INVERTED TUTT AND ITS REFLECTION WILL COMBINE TODAY
WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE LOCAL EFFECTS TO CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA UNTIL
EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION WITH
THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS WELL AS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AT ANY GIVEN
MOMENT...BUT THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
STARTING ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GO
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY...ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN K-INDEX FOR SUNDAY. THIS MEANS THAT FOR THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK AND INTO SATURDAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEN ON SUNDAY A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...BANDS OF MOIST AND DRY AIR WILL PASS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING SHRA AND SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. AFT 16/16Z AREAS OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP WITH MVFR LCLY IFR CONDS IN WRN PR AND TJMZ
WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS. IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED AFT 16/21Z. LLVL
WINDS E TO SE 5 TO 15 KT UP THRU 30 KFT. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS 30-42
KFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 50 20 30 40
STT 90 80 90 80 / 50 20 20 30
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This link is for news reporter Patrick Jones of Love FM FB wall hes posted today about flooding in small villages on Corozol (this area was affected with some minor flooding from TS Ernesto) but TW remnants of TD7 did way more damage https://www.facebook.com/#!/media/set/? ... 150&type=1
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good afternoon. We will have to begin to watch what is going on between Africa and the Lesser Antilles as things for sure will pick up towards development in the comming days.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST THU AUG 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH OVR THE AREA
FRI-SAT. TUTT ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE ESTABLISHING AGAIN MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
BUT I EXPECT AN UPTICK IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC TROF MOVES
ACROSS. MUCH DRIER AIR NOW OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT FOR A QUIET NIGHT. THEN ANOTHER SURGE IN MOISTURE TOMORROW
FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLY MORE THAN TODAY. MODELS THEN SHOW
MOISTURE DECREASING SAT WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN CVRG THEN
REALLY DRY AIR FOR SUN UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF SAHARAN
AIR. LOWERED POPS TO ISOLD SUN ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT NOT BE
ANYTHING AT ALL. DRY STABLE AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TUE WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.
MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE TUE
NIGHT AND WED. THEN IMPROVING WEATHER NEXT THU AND FRI BEHIND
DEPARTING WAVE. NOTE THAT NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY DEVELOPMENT
WITH THIS WAVE WED AND MOST OF THEM SHOW A WEAKENING SIGNAL AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
FAIRLY VIGOROUS WAVE NOW NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST IS FCST BY GLOBAL
MODELS TO BECOME OUR NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR AT JBQ AND JSJ WITH VCTS. QUIET TONIGHT BUT
ACTIVE WX AGAIN FRI WITH CONVECTION CONCENTRATING INLAND AND
LIKELY AFFECTING JMZ.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR TSTMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 90 / 20 40 40 40
STT 80 90 80 90 / 20 40 30 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST THU AUG 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH OVR THE AREA
FRI-SAT. TUTT ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE ESTABLISHING AGAIN MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
BUT I EXPECT AN UPTICK IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC TROF MOVES
ACROSS. MUCH DRIER AIR NOW OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT FOR A QUIET NIGHT. THEN ANOTHER SURGE IN MOISTURE TOMORROW
FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLY MORE THAN TODAY. MODELS THEN SHOW
MOISTURE DECREASING SAT WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN CVRG THEN
REALLY DRY AIR FOR SUN UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF SAHARAN
AIR. LOWERED POPS TO ISOLD SUN ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT NOT BE
ANYTHING AT ALL. DRY STABLE AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TUE WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.
MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE TUE
NIGHT AND WED. THEN IMPROVING WEATHER NEXT THU AND FRI BEHIND
DEPARTING WAVE. NOTE THAT NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY DEVELOPMENT
WITH THIS WAVE WED AND MOST OF THEM SHOW A WEAKENING SIGNAL AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
FAIRLY VIGOROUS WAVE NOW NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST IS FCST BY GLOBAL
MODELS TO BECOME OUR NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR AT JBQ AND JSJ WITH VCTS. QUIET TONIGHT BUT
ACTIVE WX AGAIN FRI WITH CONVECTION CONCENTRATING INLAND AND
LIKELY AFFECTING JMZ.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR TSTMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 90 / 20 40 40 40
STT 80 90 80 90 / 20 40 30 30
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - C America: Watching invest 94L in East Atlantic
Good morning. Tropical Wave moving thru PR today bringing scattered showers. We are watching invest 94L in the far Eastern Atlantic.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGHINESS SHIFTS FROM
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO TO NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN BACK
BY MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...A TRANS-ATLANTIC MID-LATITUDE RIDGE
REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH
JUST OFFSHORE FROM AFRICA TODAY MIGRATES TO NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BY THE LAST
WEEKEND OF AUGUST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...BANDS OF MOISTURE IN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF A LARGE MASS OF DRY
AIR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH. THIS DRY AIR...HOWEVER...
IS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH BY PULSES OF MOISTURE THAT TRAIL IN FROM
THE POOL OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST...KEEPING SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AREA UNTIL THE NEXT GOOD WAVE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. SOME DUST WILL BECOME APPARENT IN THE SKIES TODAY
AND TOMORROW...BUT SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO INHIBIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY REDUCED ON SUNDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE FROM AFRICA
TODAY THAT MOVES WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND TURNS NORTHWEST EARLY
IN THE WEEK TO BE SOME 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF ARECIBO BY EARLY IN
THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE INTENSITY-WISE
THAN THE ECMWF BUT BOTH HAVE IT ARRIVING IN VERY SIMILAR POSITIONS
BY THE END OF THE 10 DAY FORECAST. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION PROVE
CORRECT PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WOULD EXPERIENCE
VERY LIGHT WINDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST TODAY FOR THE LOCAL TAF SITES AS
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN. TKPK AND TNCM AS WELL AS TIST/TISX WILL
LIKELY OBSERVE SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER
17/15Z...SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PR. TSRA ARE LIKELY
ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ...WHILE TJSJ AND TJPS HAVE A CHANCE OF TSRA BUT
MORE LIKELY VCTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE EXPECTED TSRA.
ALSO...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR AS CLOUDINESS INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY. CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 17/23Z. LLVL
WINDS EAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 20 KFT BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST
10 TO 25 KNOTS BY 18/12Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS IN BOTH
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN. WINDS NEAR SW AND NW PUERTO RICO MAY
OCCASIONALLY APPROACH 20 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 80 / 50 40 40 60
STT 89 79 90 81 / 40 30 30 50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGHINESS SHIFTS FROM
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO TO NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN BACK
BY MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...A TRANS-ATLANTIC MID-LATITUDE RIDGE
REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH
JUST OFFSHORE FROM AFRICA TODAY MIGRATES TO NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BY THE LAST
WEEKEND OF AUGUST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...BANDS OF MOISTURE IN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF A LARGE MASS OF DRY
AIR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH. THIS DRY AIR...HOWEVER...
IS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH BY PULSES OF MOISTURE THAT TRAIL IN FROM
THE POOL OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST...KEEPING SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AREA UNTIL THE NEXT GOOD WAVE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. SOME DUST WILL BECOME APPARENT IN THE SKIES TODAY
AND TOMORROW...BUT SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO INHIBIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY REDUCED ON SUNDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE FROM AFRICA
TODAY THAT MOVES WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND TURNS NORTHWEST EARLY
IN THE WEEK TO BE SOME 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF ARECIBO BY EARLY IN
THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE INTENSITY-WISE
THAN THE ECMWF BUT BOTH HAVE IT ARRIVING IN VERY SIMILAR POSITIONS
BY THE END OF THE 10 DAY FORECAST. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION PROVE
CORRECT PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WOULD EXPERIENCE
VERY LIGHT WINDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST TODAY FOR THE LOCAL TAF SITES AS
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN. TKPK AND TNCM AS WELL AS TIST/TISX WILL
LIKELY OBSERVE SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER
17/15Z...SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PR. TSRA ARE LIKELY
ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ...WHILE TJSJ AND TJPS HAVE A CHANCE OF TSRA BUT
MORE LIKELY VCTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE EXPECTED TSRA.
ALSO...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR AS CLOUDINESS INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY. CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 17/23Z. LLVL
WINDS EAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 20 KFT BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST
10 TO 25 KNOTS BY 18/12Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS IN BOTH
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN. WINDS NEAR SW AND NW PUERTO RICO MAY
OCCASIONALLY APPROACH 20 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 80 / 50 40 40 60
STT 89 79 90 81 / 40 30 30 50
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - C America: Watching invest 94L in East Atlantic
Here is Stu Ostro of the Weather Channel talking about the system that may be a Cyclone in the next few days.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... index.html
Models continue to key on a tropical wave and low pressure system now coming off Africa as having a high probability of becoming a tropical cyclone as it traverses the Atlantic. Those projections also continue to show the system not making the journey all the way across to North America.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... index.html
Models continue to key on a tropical wave and low pressure system now coming off Africa as having a high probability of becoming a tropical cyclone as it traverses the Atlantic. Those projections also continue to show the system not making the journey all the way across to North America.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - C America: Watching invest 94L in East Atlantic
8 AM Tropical Weather Outlook.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
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