ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[Extratropical94]

Up to 70%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM REACHES LAND IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING COULD BE
NEEDED FOR PART OF THE COAST TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON.

[drezee]

Recon needs to get there fast... heading West at 95.2 W at 6z

AL, 07, 2012081706, , BEST, 0, 197N, 952W, 25, 1011, LO,

[Blown Away]

BOC and Central Atlantic seems to be the only areas these tropical systems can find ideal conditions.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This should make landfall in 36-48 hours from now as a minimal tropical storm and move inland some. After that time, a deepening trough over the East USA should induce a north..and eventually northeast..movement that brings it back offshore. A continued motion in that direction will strengthening slowly seems very plausible, IMO. The Texas coast needs to watch this.

[NDG]

The recon this afternoon could very well find at least that TD7 has reintensified to a TD if not a Tropical Storm if deep convection continues through the day.

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[NDG]

[KWT]

High chance now then, I'm not all that surprised given its current presentation and it does look like redevelopment/development is likely.

[wxman57]

This should make landfall in 36-48 hours from now as a minimal tropical storm and move inland some. After that time, a deepening trough over the East USA should induce a north..and eventually northeast..movement that brings it back offshore. A continued motion in that direction will strengthening slowly seems very plausible, IMO. The Texas coast needs to watch this.

The circulation center appears to be only about 30 miles offshore. If it really is moving at 8 kts then it'll be inland before noon today. I do expect it to slow down a lot, but that might not happen until it's inland.

[tolakram]

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[lrak]

So with it moving inland this far south does it mean a bust for S. Texas rain?

[wxwatcher1999]

I wonder even if it does move inland will the front still pull it north and maybe east back over water

[Houstonia]

I'm getting confused trying to keep track of what wave is what remnant? Jeff Lindner with the HC flood control district is already talking about ANOTHER system getting ready to form along the eastern MX coast. But... if it forms out of the remains of the REMNANTS of TX #7... How will they label THAT?!?

Jeff Lindner:

...

Front will sag southward today, but remain well to our north. However, deep tropical moisture over the Gulf of Mexico will begin to move inland over the TX coast leading in increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Air mass will become unstable by mid to late morning and upper level winds are weakly divergent with no capping. Feel the wetter guidance may win out today given the presence of showers already along the coast currently…usually a good sign in the summer of an active seabreeze.

...

Early next week:

Front looks to slip off the coast Monday-Tuesday leading to drier conditions at least north of I-10. Front and moisture may linger close enough to the coast to keep rain chances in the forecast for those areas. Then all eyes turn to the south and what if anything develops tropically over the weekend into early next week.

Gulf:

Remains of TD # 7 have moves over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche and have shown signs of organization this overnight and this morning. Deep convection has developed over a possible low/mid level center with a few banding features. The system is moving toward the WNW and will be crossing inland along the eastern MX coast later today.

Forecast models have come into slightly better agreement on trying to close off some sort of surface low out of a coastal trough along the eastern MX coast late this weekend into early next week. Not sure if they are picking up on the current system, or a trough that will be left behind near the coast. 00Z CMC has come in fairly aggressive showing development off of Brownsville, while the GFS lingers a broad trough/weak surface low along the NE MX coastline for days. Think the current system will move inland, but leave unsettled weather over the western Gulf well into next week and we will have to continue to monitor for any possible development.


With the front likely stalling over the waters on Monday and low pressure over the western Gulf, winds will gradually back and increase out of the NE to ENE early next week. For now will limit rain chances near the coast, but it is possible that the front/any tropical system may back northward and greatly increase mid week rain chances….stay tuned!

Stay tuned indeed!

[tailgater]

The tropical models are running seven07l now.
GDFL
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
HWRF
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

The circulation center appears to be only about 30 miles offshore. If it really is moving at 8 kts then it'll be inland before noon today. I do expect it to slow down a lot, but that might not happen until it's inland.

Going to be a close call, but even if it does slow down, its still going to be inland before tomorrow at this rate.

[NDG]

This should make landfall in 36-48 hours from now as a minimal tropical storm and move inland some. After that time, a deepening trough over the East USA should induce a north..and eventually northeast..movement that brings it back offshore. A continued motion in that direction will strengthening slowly seems very plausible, IMO. The Texas coast needs to watch this.

The circulation center appears to be only about 30 miles offshore. If it really is moving at 8 kts then it'll be inland before noon today. I do expect it to slow down a lot, but that might not happen until it's inland.

Best track at 12z
AL, 07, 2012081712, , BEST, 0, 200N, 960W, 25, 1009, LO, 34

Which is about 30 miles offshore, good call!
But it looks like its forward speed is beginning to slow down and is starting to track a little more parallel to the coast, but even then it could come onshore later tonight.
It would have to slow down even further and start tracking more NNW to stay away from the coast.

[NDG]

12z soundings shows a weak ridging remaining over TX, but it is still forecasted to weaken and or shift westward over the weekend, this should make X-TD7 put on the breaks later tonight, the question if it is going to be inland or offshore by then.

[NDG]

Recon still on for this afternoon, around 20z

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 17 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-091

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION INTO THE REMNANTS OF TD #7 FOR
17/2000Z WILL FLY AS TASKED ON TCPOD 12-090.

[MGC]

Lets hope this gets inland before it can really start intensifying. Conditions look nearly ideal for this to spin up if it can stay out over the water......MGC

[KWT]

I think NDG that it will indeed be inland by that time looking at its current position. I'm struggling to see how this system won't gain an extra 30 miles west in the next 12-18hrs.

[ROCK]

brings back thoughts of Humberto though I think "H" was not as close to the coast as X-TD7.....even if it goes inland guidance suggests it moving back offshore. it is a race as some say as how strong this may become...