ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[lrak]

Could well stay very near the coast (sometimes inland, sometimes offshore) alternating between TD/TS for the next 4-5 days as it drifts slowly northward. Final landfall likely south of Brownsville around next Tue-Wed. Could mean some heavy rain for south TX from Sunday through next Thursday.

Great news for South Texas!

[wxman57]

You could finally get some decent rain out of this, combined with that weak/dissipating frontal boundary/trof along the coast.

I just wish SOMEONE could explain to me why recon is always scheduled to arrive on the first invest of a system just about the time the afternoon advisory is issued (3pm CDT). Wouldn't it make more sense to have the plane complete its investigation before the advisory process begins around noon to 1pm CDT? Why isn't the plane already in there?

[jabman98]

So is it the remnants of 7 that are what would be responsible for the rain we're being forecast to get in Houston over the next several days?

[Aric Dunn]

You could finally get some decent rain out of this, combined with that weak/dissipating frontal boundary/trof along the coast.

I just wish SOMEONE could explain to me why recon is always scheduled to arrive on the first invest of a system just about the time the afternoon advisory is issued (3pm CDT). Wouldn't it make more sense to have the plane complete its investigation before the advisory process begins around noon to 1pm CDT? Why isn't the plane already in there?

I have always wondered why they are so late sometimes. like they dont want to actually issues advisories being that its already near the coast.

[NDG]

So is it the remnants of 7 that are what would be responsible for the rain we're being forecast to get in Houston over the next several days?

More to do with a frontal boundary stalling along the NW gulf coast over the next few days.

[Zanthe]

Up to 80%, if no one saw.

[ROCK]

12Z GFS sending these left overs into SW LA now....

[Clint_TX]

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/alvarado/alvarado.php

Creeping at 320 to me...

[KWT]

Very close to the coast now, convective blow-up on the coast, hope recon can get in there, needs to move NNW right now if its to keep offshore...

[Rgv20]

Took a quick look at the 12zGFS and it looks like whatever becomes of Ex-Td7 makes landfall just north of Tampico and a piece of Energy/Vorticity shoots NE toward LA.

[Portastorm]

Guess it's down to wobble watching now but seems to me like the circulation center has slowed to a crawl and is moving northwest, almost north-northwest.

[tolakram]

Full 30 frame live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Looks like the center is right on the coast.

2 saved Mexican radar loops





from: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/

[KWT]

Does look like its moving more to the NW right now, whether or not that'll be enough to keep it offshore I'm not sure. Going to a tricky one to watch thats for sure, a coastal crawler!!

[tolakram]

Latest visible

[Nikki]

Does look like its moving more to the NW right now, whether or not that'll be enough to keep it offshore I'm not sure. Going to a tricky one to watch thats for sure, a coastal crawler!!

I just hope all coastal residents are watching this one!

[NDG]

Does look like its moving more to the NW right now, whether or not that'll be enough to keep it offshore I'm not sure. Going to a tricky one to watch thats for sure, a coastal crawler!!

Yeap, I agree, it seems to be now moving more parallel to the coast, crawling at best.

[wxwatcher1999]

Is possible for this thing to travel parallel all the way up the Texas coast?

[vbhoutex]

This is going to be interesting to watch. The center is definitely just on the coast and CRAWLING. The questions I see right now are is it going to crawl West and dissapate or crawl West and the center start to dissapate and then reform further East under what appears to be increasing convection??? Lots of questions and not a lot of answers yet and definitely open to a LOT of speculation with the current pattern developing over the W GOM and Texas. This definitely puts Mexico under the gun for major flooding rains under almost any scenario that develops. I hope they don't have horrendous flash floods.

[KWT]

Does look like its moving more to the NW right now, whether or not that'll be enough to keep it offshore I'm not sure. Going to a tricky one to watch thats for sure, a coastal crawler!!

I just hope all coastal residents are watching this one!

Yep, really won't take much of a shift in track to take this back over the gulf and with very good conditions aloft, it'd only probably take 12-18hrs for it to spin into a TS from this point.

[Nikki]

Does look like its moving more to the NW right now, whether or not that'll be enough to keep it offshore I'm not sure. Going to a tricky one to watch thats for sure, a coastal crawler!!

I just hope all coastal residents are watching this one!

Yep, really won't take much of a shift in track to take this back over the gulf and with very good conditions aloft, it'd only probably take 12-18hrs for it to spin into a TS from this point.

I am in the Galveston area and I know a hit here isn't as likely as it is elsewhere along the Texas coast, but still I will watch it...this is a crazy lil storm to say the least!