ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Still not high enough to be upgraded to a TD.

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DATE/TIME     LAT      LON      CLASSIFICATION       STORM
  20/2345 UTC   15.2N     48.7W       T1.0/1.0         94L -- Atlantic 

[SouthDadeFish]

Still not high enough to be upgraded to a TD.

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DATE/TIME     LAT      LON      CLASSIFICATION       STORM
  20/2345 UTC   15.2N     48.7W       T1.0/1.0         94L -- Atlantic 

In my opinion it is only that low due to the lack of convection. There really is no justification for a higher T number based off IR imagery alone.

[NDG]

Still not high enough to be upgraded to a TD.

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DATE/TIME     LAT      LON      CLASSIFICATION       STORM
  20/2345 UTC   15.2N     48.7W       T1.0/1.0         94L -- Atlantic 

In my opinion it is only that low due to the lack of convection. There really is no justification for a higher T number based off IR imagery alone.

I agree.

[northjaxpro]

Comparing all of the CV waves which has traversed across the tropical Atlantic to this point, 94L most definitely has the most impressive circulation of the bunch. It is just a matter of time before this system finds a moisture laden atmosphere to fire convection near the center of circulation. As soon as that process begins, there is a potential for this system to really spin up into a formidable tropical cyclone depending on the precise track it takes. There are so many variables to factor in of course and I am just going to take this day by day. But, no question, we all will be very vigilant in these coming days.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

latest loop

[psyclone]

once a circulation as large and well established as this one gets going at this time of year...it's like an atmospheric volcano. it's not a question of if, but when, it blows. based on the verbiage of the latest TWO, the NHC thinks an eruption is imminent. I'm just waiting for convection to blossom, at which time we'll have a renumber and likely a name soon thereafter.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Another view. Convection still struggling to maintain itself.

[sunnyday]

Can someone please explain to me how this can be at 90% tonight? Many posters are saying how terrible it looks and saying it doesn't have its act together at this point. What is in front of it or not in front of it that can make it have such a high chance?
Thank you for your answer.

[tolakram]

Can someone please explain to me how this can be at 90% tonight? Many posters are saying how terrible it looks and saying it doesn't have its act together at this point. What is in front of it or not in front of it that can make it have such a high chance?
Thank you for your answer.

The discussion by the NHC explains it best.

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER...ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD
SOON BE REQUIRED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

A significant blowup would probably mean a quick upgrade to depression status.

[SeminoleWind]

Yeah that exert from the NHC discussion says it all, they have there finger on the trigger and just waiting to pull it.

[brunota2003]

And remember that that 90% is over a 48 hour period...not a 1 or even 12 hour period.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I agree with TA 13 forecast looks impressive maybe 11?

[Nimbus]

Looks like the strong forecast ridge is now rolling east and will trap 94l. Technically this is a TD at the moment but there was some talk of the ULL to the northwest shearing it back to an open wave.

Looked to me like the ULL is weakening and might only enhance convection on the northern side of the track. Hope it stays just a TD till it passes Guadalupe. Would probably not have any serious impact east of Hispaniola in that scenario.

[blp]

Slight dip to the SW today.Let's see if it continues. Could make a difference down the road with its interaction with land.

20/2345 UTC 15.2N 48.7W T1.0/1.0 94L
20/1745 UTC 15.6N 46.7W T1.0/1.0 94L
20/1145 UTC 15.7N 44.8W TOO WEAK 94L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 94, 2012082100, , BEST, 0, 153N, 488W, 30, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

00z Best Track

AL, 94, 2012082100, , BEST, 0, 153N, 488W, 30, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Almost a TD...It's no longer just a mere disturbance (DB), but now it's a low (LO).

[fci]

My forecast is unchanged from the past few nights.

Cool map, thanks!
My thought is that if thd system crosses Hispañola like you depicted it will not emerge with 50 MPH winds. It would be shredded by the mountains. But on the downside; the flooding would be horrific.

[somethingfunny]

My forecast is unchanged from the past few nights.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/YyBGU.jpg[/i mg]

Cool map, thanks!
My thought is that if thd system crosses Hispañola like you depicted it will not emerge with 50 MPH winds. It would be shredded by the mountains. But on the downside; the flooding would be horrific.

I think this system is actually large enough that it would probably survive crossing the Greater Antilles islands without too much of a problem. I hope it stays away from Hispaniola though or at least moves along past it quickly, since a large-sized system would drop more rainfall than a small one.

[sunnyday]

Thank you, tolakram. I appreciate your help.

[floridasun78]

Hispañola and hait dont need alot rain haiti still rebuilding