ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

CYA?

[cycloneye]

They may wait for the first visble images and depending on how much convection it has,then the trigger may be pulled.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SeminoleWind]

Still looks lackluster but more symmetrical

[SouthDadeFish]

Cycloneye, I see what you mean, but the circulation is already well established so I don't think they need visible to see the convection. Any decent sized blob on IR over the center that holds for more than 6 hours should do the trick in my opinion.

[hurricanefloyd5]

from my local weather man on facebook tonight.

Brian Monahan, WFTV
New models continue to show a Florida threat from Invest 94L/Isaac. I believe this is valid; certainly lots of questions (intensity, land interaction, wind shear, dry air, etc -- lots of hurdles!) but each model run and REAL data (real data, what's actually going on, is MUCH more important than model data most of the time) lead me to believe this system will be nearby Florida this weekend and early next week. -BM

Bryan Norcross


Bryan Norcross
The low pressure system that we've been tracking across the Atlantic is in a position to be a problem. Our two main computer forecast models - the American GFS and the European ECMWF - both forecast a storm to threaten Florida next week... including the Tampa area where they've got the Republican Convention. A LOT can happen by then, but it is striking that the two models are so aligned in terms of where the system will go. And other models show more or less the same idea. BUT... there are big unknowns. For one, the system has wrapped in a LOT of dry air and is not strengthening, in spite of a well-developed circulation. Also, if it tracks even remotely as expected, there is land between its track and Florida - namely Hispaniola or Cuba. If it goes over Hispaniola, it will likely be severely weakened. If it stays south of the islands and then turns north over or near western Cuba, however, the weakening effect of the land would be minimized. Also, the main models don't make it especially strong... as was the case with Ernesto, and they were right. But, the conditions look more favorable for this system to develop than they did for Ernesto. For now, we have to wait for the system to develop, but Florida people be aware, things could develop quickly this week with the system approaching the southern part of Florida around the weekend. For now, only vigilance is required... but it could get annoying. I hope the Republicans have a plan.
Like · · Share · 67 · 4 minutes ago ·

[ozonepete]

Looks like it's on the upswing now. Convection and banding definitely increasing and it has better symmetry. I guess they'll go at 5AM.

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[rainstorm]

i think its going to end up a major. we will see.

[jaxfladude]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

from my local weather man on facebook tonight.

Brian Monahan, WFTV
New models continue to show a Florida threat from Invest 94L/Isaac. I believe this is valid; certainly lots of questions (intensity, land interaction, wind shear, dry air, etc -- lots of hurdles!) but each model run and REAL data (real data, what's actually going on, is MUCH more important than model data most of the time) lead me to believe this system will be nearby Florida this weekend and early next week. -BM

Bryan Norcross


Bryan Norcross
The low pressure system that we've been tracking across the Atlantic is in a position to be a problem. Our two main computer forecast models - the American GFS and the European ECMWF - both forecast a storm to threaten Florida next week... including the Tampa area where they've got the Republican Convention. A LOT can happen by then, but it is striking that the two models are so aligned in terms of where the system will go. And other models show more or less the same idea. BUT... there are big unknowns. For one, the system has wrapped in a LOT of dry air and is not strengthening, in spite of a well-developed circulation. Also, if it tracks even remotely as expected, there is land between its track and Florida - namely Hispaniola or Cuba. If it goes over Hispaniola, it will likely be severely weakened. If it stays south of the islands and then turns north over or near western Cuba, however, the weakening effect of the land would be minimized. Also, the main models don't make it especially strong... as was the case with Ernesto, and they were right. But, the conditions look more favorable for this system to develop than they did for Ernesto. For now, we have to wait for the system to develop, but Florida people be aware, things could develop quickly this week with the system approaching the southern part of Florida around the weekend. For now, only vigilance is required... but it could get annoying. I hope the Republicans have a plan.
Like · · Share · 67 · 4 minutes ago ·

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I am NOW getting more than worried......time will tell. Been thru two T.S.'s Beryl and Debby(both led to the worst flooding in my life, water nearly got into the house with Debby) earlier this season, hate to think of "the third time being the charm"...

[Hurricane Alexis]

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

from my local weather man on facebook tonight.

Brian Monahan, WFTV
New models continue to show a Florida threat from Invest 94L/Isaac. I believe this is valid; certainly lots of questions (intensity, land interaction, wind shear, dry air, etc -- lots of hurdles!) but each model run and REAL data (real data, what's actually going on, is MUCH more important than model data most of the time) lead me to believe this system will be nearby Florida this weekend and early next week. -BM

Bryan Norcross


Bryan Norcross
The low pressure system that we've been tracking across the Atlantic is in a position to be a problem. Our two main computer forecast models - the American GFS and the European ECMWF - both forecast a storm to threaten Florida next week... including the Tampa area where they've got the Republican Convention. A LOT can happen by then, but it is striking that the two models are so aligned in terms of where the system will go. And other models show more or less the same idea. BUT... there are big unknowns. For one, the system has wrapped in a LOT of dry air and is not strengthening, in spite of a well-developed circulation. Also, if it tracks even remotely as expected, there is land between its track and Florida - namely Hispaniola or Cuba. If it goes over Hispaniola, it will likely be severely weakened. If it stays south of the islands and then turns north over or near western Cuba, however, the weakening effect of the land would be minimized. Also, the main models don't make it especially strong... as was the case with Ernesto, and they were right. But, the conditions look more favorable for this system to develop than they did for Ernesto. For now, we have to wait for the system to develop, but Florida people be aware, things could develop quickly this week with the system approaching the southern part of Florida around the weekend. For now, only vigilance is required... but it could get annoying. I hope the Republicans have a plan.
Like · · Share · 67 · 4 minutes ago ·

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I am NOW getting more than worried......time will tell. Been thru two T.S.'s Beryl and Debby(both led to the worst flooding in my life, water nearly got into the house with Debby) earlier this season, hate to think of "the third time being the charm"...

Yea, this will probably be huge flooding problem for the whole entire state if it were to come here.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[stephen23]

wow. Looks like this thing has really started to fire up last two frames

[tolakram]

latest ir

[HurricaneWarning92]

convection is definitely improving.

[Zanthe]

latest ir

Convection is definitely improving. I'll say TD by 5AM. Also, what website is that from? That looks good for IR.

[MGC]

Yes, all 94L needs is a bit more convection near the center and it will be upgraded..MGC

[ROCK]

better convection and this is hauling right along the 15N lat.....they will call it soon. Got to give the island folks a heads up...

[KG4HPN]

CYA?

Cover your assets. You know, board the windows, sink the lawn chairs in the pool, that kind of thing.

[CourierPR]

Joe Bastardi has posted that strengthening 94L may have a similar track to Cleo in 1964.

[northjaxpro]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

from my local weather man on facebook tonight. Brian Monahan, WFTV New models continue to show a Florida threat from Invest 94L/Isaac. I believe this is valid; certainly lots of questions (intensity, land interaction, wind shear, dry air, etc -- lots of hurdles!) but each model run and REAL data (real data, what's actually going on, is MUCH more important than model data most of the time) lead me to believe this system will be nearby Florida this weekend and early next week. -BM Bryan Norcross Bryan Norcross The low pressure system that we've been tracking across the Atlantic is in a position to be a problem. Our two main computer forecast models - the American GFS and the European ECMWF - both forecast a storm to threaten Florida next week... including the Tampa area where they've got the Republican Convention. A LOT can happen by then, but it is striking that the two models are so aligned in terms of where the system will go. And other models show more or less the same idea. BUT... there are big unknowns. For one, the system has wrapped in a LOT of dry air and is not strengthening, in spite of a well-developed circulation. Also, if it tracks even remotely as expected, there is land between its track and Florida - namely Hispaniola or Cuba. If it goes over Hispaniola, it will likely be severely weakened. If it stays south of the islands and then turns north over or near western Cuba, however, the weakening effect of the land would be minimized. Also, the main models don't make it especially strong... as was the case with Ernesto, and they were right. But, the conditions look more favorable for this system to develop than they did for Ernesto. For now, we have to wait for the system to develop, but Florida people be aware, things could develop quickly this week with the system approaching the southern part of Florida around the weekend. For now, only vigilance is required... but it could get annoying. I hope the Republicans have a plan. Like · · Share · 67 · 4 minutes ago ·

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. I am NOW getting more than worried......time will tell. Been thru two T.S.'s Beryl and Debby(both led to the worst flooding in my life, water nearly got into the house with Debby) earlier this season, hate to think of "the third time being the charm"...

Yeah, I am with you on this. We definitely have had too much action in these parts earlier this season. We just have to stay vigilant all week long and see what this system does. It has been quite the season here in the Jacksonville area with Beryl and Debby. Flooding was worse when Debby came through here at my location with more than 16 inches measured.

Again, lots can happen of course and I am just taking this situation with 94L day by day. But, I have to admit that the GFS runs through tonight look rather ominous for the Florida peninsula. Hopefully the model runs will keep shifting east as time progresses. We don't need any more tropical mischief in this area I can certainly attest to this fact!

________________________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SeminoleWind]

coming together well, wont be long now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[boca]

Its so early in the game this can be a Bahamas system and miss us to the east.Isn't the rule if your in the 5 day cone at day 5 your not going to get hit.