2012 EPAC season

[somethingfunny]

BEST TRACK: EP93, 102N 1005W, 25kts, 0mb, DB

This is the 10% blob east of Gilma.

[Yellow Evan]

EPAC getting dead again after Gilma and Hector.

[Kingarabian]

I'm sure it will re-fire sooner than later.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't think the models showing anything.

[Cyclenall]

I'm sure it will re-fire sooner than later.

Not for at least another 10 days and that is embarrassing. Gilma and Hector were not interesting.

[Ntxw]

Yeah MJO is heading into phase 2/3. That is not favorable for EPAC developments and activity will be over in the Atlantic until the signal returns to phases 4/5/6 or greater.

[hurricanes1234]

What about that disturbance off the coast of southwestern Mexico? The NHC gave it a 10% chance of development, but I doubt this will do anything other than dissipate probably by tomorrow. To me, these systems usually don't develop into anything but a cluster of showers and thunderstorms. The cloudtops have also warmed considerably since earlier this morning, and the appearance is somewhat disorganized and elongated. I am not saying this won't develop, I am just saying it may dissipate before it could even earn a medium/high chance of development. I also remember another system from last month in this same area where this one is, and I think it dissipated within 24 hours of being monitored. I also noticed the SSTs in the eastern Pacific cooling to about 28°C from around 31°C a couple weeks ago (off the southwestern coast of Mexico). Where is the superb activity that was in the basin just a month ago?

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PERSISTS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.

[Yellow Evan]

What about that disturbance off the coast of southwestern Mexico? The NHC gave it a 10% chance of development, but I doubt this will do anything other than dissipate probably by tomorrow. To me, these systems usually don't develop into anything but a cluster of showers and thunderstorms. The cloudtops have also warmed considerably since earlier this morning, and the appearance is somewhat disorganized and elongated. I am not saying this won't develop, I am just saying it may dissipate before it could even earn a medium/high chance of development. I also remember another system from last month in this same area where this one is, and I think it dissipated within 24 hours of being monitored. I also noticed the SSTs in the eastern Pacific cooling to about 28°C from around 31°C a couple weeks ago (off the southwestern coast of Mexico). Where is the superb activity that was in the basin just a month ago?

______________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The trough looks alright, but it does not have much time, hence why it is at 10%.

[Yellow Evan]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE AFTER
THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.

[NDG]

Have things really quited down in EPAC this month compared to July, things look to stay quite through the rest of the month!

[Yellow Evan]

You realize we have an invest now, right

[Yellow Evan]

Nvm, 96E is gone.

[Cyclenall]

I also noticed the SSTs in the eastern Pacific cooling to about 28°C from around 31°C a couple weeks ago (off the southwestern coast of Mexico). Where is the superb activity that was in the basin just a month ago?

Exactly, with the cooler SSTs and the waning Nino 3.4 (down 0.2ºC?) with the fact that this August in the Epac has been inactive, that doesn't sound like a developing El Nino to me.

[Kingarabian]

This is really depressing. I wanted some nice super fish....

On to the next.

[Ntxw]

Can't fully blame developing Nino. Just because it's there doesn't guarantee activity nonstop. The MJO is still in phases 2/3 and Epac activity won't pick up until it leaves that region. It will be at least another 2 weeks. Enjoy watching the Atlantic side until early Sept! People underestimate using the MJO as a forecasting tool.

[Yellow Evan]

Aha a life

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW
DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD.

[Kingarabian]

That dry air is really suffocating in the EPac. Geez.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like there is a big ULL given the dry air.

[Yellow Evan]

1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH.