ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Recon now found a pressure of 1000mb in an area NW from the last fix, might be the true LLC of Isaac, a bit further north near 15.8N

Good morning NDG. I just saw that myself and you beat meto the punch LOL. Yeah, the center may be where you pointed out at that latitude. But, no question, Isaac is strengthening and getting his act together now.

[jlauderdal]

hmmmm which to believe? I am all types of confuzzled

Err on the side of climatology: major hurricanes, especially large Cape Verde hurricanes at lower latitude in the Caribbean, have a marked tendency to plow straight ahead -- the models be damned.

this isn't a major hurricane nor is it forecast to become one at this time

[NDG]

Recon now found a pressure of 1000mb in an area NW from the last fix, might be the true LLC of Isaac, a bit further north near 15.8N

Good morning NDG. I just saw that myself and you beat meto the punch LOL. Yeah, the center may be where you pointed out at that latitude. But, no question, Isaac is strengthening and getting his act together now.

Good morning! Here we go again with another possible strike for FL!
Weird how the latest vortex message contradicts that reading, they must be ignoring that pressure reading for now, too weird.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 22/0600 UTC IS NEAR
15.6N 56.4W...MOVING WESTWARD 16 KNOTS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT
300 NM/555 KM TO THE EAST OF GUADELOUPE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY... MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND
58W AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W AND FROM 13N TO 20N
BETWEEN 58W AND 62W. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ISLANDS FROM
THE SAINT LUCIA CHANNEL TO GUADELOUPE.

[tgenius]

I just woke up and saw the latest 5 day projection. Looks like a cat1 on My doorstep Monday morning. Only a day or 2 and SFL in the 3 day cone :/

[GCANE]

Isaac is firing convection very close to the LLC.

Very cold cloud tops.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.jpg

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 220215.jpg

Very nice UL outflow on the western portion of Isaac.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

This seems to be supported by an UL trough running from the N Carib into the east Bahamas.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Also, moving into an anti-cyclone with no UL PV anomalies.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

All indications that Isaac will continue to intensify before passing over the islands.

GFS is forecasting that the UL Trough will move NW away from Isaac and dissipate when Issac is somewhere around PR.

A new ULL will kick in at about 28N 59W and create an enhanced poleward outflow channel in about 93 hrs.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

On satellite loop you can clearly see that the NE shear has led up a little bit this morning. Outflow is still lacking in its NE quadrant, that could change as it keeps moving westward and starts catching up to the UL trough to its west over the next couple of days.

[northjaxpro]

Recon now found a pressure of 1000mb in an area NW from the last fix, might be the true LLC of Isaac, a bit further north near 15.8N

Good morning NDG. I just saw that myself and you beat meto the punch LOL. Yeah, the center may be where you pointed out at that latitude. But, no question, Isaac is strengthening and getting his act together now.

Good morning! Here we go again with another possible strike for FL! Weird how the latest vortex message contradicts that reading, they must be ignoring that pressure reading for now, too weird.

NDG, you know how weary I have been from what we have experienced thus far this season here in Jax. Now, we may get impacts from Isaac. Mother Nature seemingly has targeted our state this season. Just take it day by day. I am hoping that GFS will keep trending east in time. Of course, if that happens, then Isaac's worst effects will be away from Florida, but worse for the Bahamas and the threat would put the U.S. East Coast in play. Lots of variables as always, but yeah, I am definitely growing more uncomfortable as time progresses.
________________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[GCANE]

Rain-rate is pegged out.

Massive hot-tower firing:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... bean.0.jpg

[NDG]

I just woke up and saw the latest 5 day projection. Looks like a cat1 on My doorstep Monday morning. Only a day or 2 and SFL in the 3 day cone :/

SE FL could start feeling the effects of Isaac as early as Sunday afternoon, if the GFS is correct.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[GCANE]

Hot tower started at 0845Z

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexdat/CONUS ... bean.0.jpg

[Shuriken]

hmmmm which to believe? I am all types of confuzzled

Err on the side of climatology: major hurricanes, especially large Cape Verde hurricanes at lower latitude in the Caribbean, have a marked tendency to plow straight ahead -- the models be damned.

this isn't a major hurricane nor is it forecast to become one at this time

I know.

But that's the another thing Caribbean storms have a marked tendency to do -- the models be damned.

[SouthFLTropics]

Just got up and looked at the 5:00AM forecast track. Models in good agreement (except Euro) about bringing Isaac to our neck of the woods by this weekend. Looked at the Discussion from Stacy Stewart and I must say the guy never ceases to amaze me...What a great write up about what the NHC is thinking and why. Interesting days ahead folks. Don't think we've seen a threat like this to South Florida that has this much model agreement in a long time.

SFT

[NDG]

Good morning NDG. I just saw that myself and you beat meto the punch LOL. Yeah, the center may be where you pointed out at that latitude. But, no question, Isaac is strengthening and getting his act together now.

Good morning! Here we go again with another possible strike for FL! Weird how the latest vortex message contradicts that reading, they must be ignoring that pressure reading for now, too weird.

NDG, you know how weary I have been from what we have experienced thus far this season here in Jax. Now, we may get impacts from Isaac. Mother Nature seemingly has targeted our state this season. Just take it day by day. I am hoping that GFS will keep trending east in time. Of course, if that happens, then Isaac's worst effects will be away from Florida, but worse for the Bahamas and the threat would put the U.S. East Coast in play. Lots of variables as always, but yeah, I am definitely growing more uncomfortable as time progresses.
________________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The consistency and persistency of the GFS is scary. What I am afraid of is that Isaac really slows down as it tracks somewhere over the FL Peninsula as the trough begins to exit later in the period, pulling something close to a Fay.
As I type this while looking at the 06z gfs come in it seems that the GFS does not want to keep the eastward trend going, it seems that it wants to track Isaac a little further west than previous runs, not good for FL.

[CourierPR]

Just saw a post about erring on the side of climatology regarding Isaac's path. Climatology does not steer hurricanes. It is not a force in itself. Pay attention to the NHC.

[Chickenzilla]

Really cold cloud tops.


What are the chances for Isaac to be like last year's Irene?

[MGC]

5am forecast track has Isaac right off Key Largo in the upper keys early Monday morning....depending on had badly the inner core is disrupted as the cyclone trecks over land will be the key to the ultimate intensity Isaac brings to Florida. The storm is quite large and looks like Isaac is intensifying this morning based on its satellite appearance. All of ya'll in the Islands stay safe with the passage of Isaac........MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[ObsessedMiami]

Weird discussion of Issac on NBC6 Miami is morning. Met Ryan Phillips said "there are too many variables to predict what impact Issac will have on Florida yet" but then said "we are in the center of the cone and will be there for some time."

[NDG]

Recon reports are not as impressive as the sat pressention of Isaac this morning, they keep having a hard time finding the true LLC of Isaac this morning.

[SouthFLTropics]

Recon reports are not as impressive as the sat pressention of Isaac this morning, they keep having a hard time finding the true LLC of Isaac this morning.

That doesn't surprise me...Isaac is just starting to get cooking. The center is probably wobbling around underneath the CDO and attempting to establish itself. With the convection that it is maintaining now it shouldn't be long before things start to ramp up.

SFT