ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1401 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:26 am

Starting to move into a more moist air environment.

Note the advection of high TPW air from the north ahead of Isaac

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1402 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:27 am

The French Antilles radar is starting to show Isaac well : long loop link
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1403 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:28 am

I don't know what you guys are seeing. Save for the EURO, which is an outlier and no perfect, the consensus takes this to Florida. You actas if you know for a fact the models will change. Maybe they will, but for now look at where they actually are.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1404 Postby KBBOCA » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:28 am

artist wrote:
sandyb wrote:A good example as to why not to believe everything you read this is from out local weather site web page
Tropical Storm Isaac is tracking west at about 80 miles per hour,



A local website/newspaper here also posted something about Isaac a few hours ago (translated):
Tourists and resident in the Lesser Antilles are on the alert since Monday. Hurricane "Isaak" is expected to move through the area, then impact Puerto Rico and head towards the US. (...) Intensity models are very agressive and bullish on the system and all signs are pointing towards a major hurricane (category 3+). [snip]

I know this storm won't get too much attention here in Germany unless it hits the US mainland but still I'm really shocked what I have to read sometimes.


Maybe we can start a thread in Talking Tropics for the outrageous things we hear / read about Isaac? There are bound to be some doozies, especially with all the attention given the upcoming RNC in Tampa next week. Many more people are following this than usual, I think.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1405 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:29 am

Brian Shields, WFTV
A NOAA jet will get into Isaac tomorrow. After that, the models will have the best data possible. Models on Friday should reflect this, and we'll have a better handle on when/if the northwest turn will take place.
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#1406 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:29 am

OY!

Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:04am EDT

* Storm Isaac has potential to hit Florida coast by Monday
* Florida is largest citrus-growing state in the United
States
* Nearby prices race to 3-month highs


NEW YORK, Aug 22 (Reuters) - New York orange juice prices
jumped on Wednesday after the U.S. National Hurricane Center
warned that Tropical Storm Isaac, which is strengthening in the
Caribbean, could hit the south coast of citrus-rich Florida by
Monday.
Benchmark prices jumped 5.6 percent to a six-week high of
$1.2185 per lb in early trading and briefly pierced key
resistance at its 100-day moving average before easing back off
those highs.
The most-active November frozen concentrated orange juice
on ICE Futures U.S. was up 3.03 percent at $1.189 per lb
at 9:55 a.m. EDT (1355 GMT). Prices had jumped as much as 8
percent on Tuesday after weather forecasters first raised the
alert.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/ ... I320120822
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#1407 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:31 am

Looking very good this morning. though the convection is still lopsided on the south side with a little bit trying to build on the NE side.


Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1408 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:31 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:I don't know what you guys are seeing. Save for the EURO, which is an outlier and no perfect, the consensus takes this to Florida. You actas if you know for a fact the models will change. Maybe they will, but for now look at where they actually are.


People are just guessing and making predictions, that's what we do here. I haven't seen anyone state anything as fact. That would be against posting policy, anyway.
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Re: Re:

#1409 Postby x-y-no » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:33 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
Tyler Penland wrote:Last hour looks like he's wobbled south. Main convection did anyways.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html


Thats from the NE shear.. not a movement.


Yeah, it looks like the upper anti-cyclone is situated ahead of the center, so to a certain extent it's doing this to itself. there's also some relatively light NE shear at the mid-level.

Also, the surface circulation(s) that recon has found are decidedly unimpressive - very disorganized at the surface.

If this can get better stacked as it enters the Caribbean it'll strengthen.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1410 Postby Frank2 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:38 am

Yes, that explains why the max temp is displaced 26 miles from the center - some good news...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1411 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:40 am

BigB0882 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:I don't know what you guys are seeing. Save for the EURO, which is an outlier and no perfect, the consensus takes this to Florida. You actas if you know for a fact the models will change. Maybe they will, but for now look at where they actually are.


People are just guessing and making predictions, that's what we do here. I haven't seen anyone state anything as fact. That would be against posting policy, anyway.


/Agree. Right now the models have windshield wiped across the Florida Peninsula 3x so far, trends can change as soon as the next run. We wont have true climate data in the models until tomorrow night, right now they're working off of their own programming and baises(sp).

If all else fails the one thing I've learned from being here since 2004 is that I always look at someones location before reading their prediction and put that information in the equation and form my own opinion of their prognosis. (Didn't use the dreaded W word :lol: )
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1412 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:41 am

is the center moving over the islands now as we speak or no.

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animator.php?137
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#1413 Postby shaggy » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:45 am

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1000 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2012

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 26 2012 - 12Z WED AUG 29 2012

...HURCN ISAAC MAY IMPACT FL DURING THE D5-D7 TIME PERIOD...


THE MAJOR THREAT DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE TIME FRAME WILL BE WITH
HURCN ISAAC WHICH IS CURRENTLY CHURNING THE WATERS NEARBY THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THE LATEST NHC TRACK SUGGESTS THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF CUBA BY 25/1200Z WITH A
GENERAL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST CARRYING IT NEAR THE FL KEYS BY
27/1200Z. FCST MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT ISAAC TOWARD THE SERN U.S. BY MID-NEXT
WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THE CURRENT 06Z/00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A
VARIETY OF SOLNS PRESENTED THEREBY COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR
INTERESTED PARTIES ACRS THE SERN U.S. THE CURRENT TRACK INDICATED
BY THE NHC GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN THRU D5 WITH
HPC CONTINUING ITS GENERALLY MOTION TOWARD THE NNW INTO CNTRL GA
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OF COURSE...PLEASE VISIT THE LATEST
TRACK OF HURCN ISAAC ON THE NHC WEBSITE AT http://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE HIGH AMPLITUDE IN NATURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MEAN NEG ANOMALY SHOULD BE FEATURED JUST TO THE WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WITH THIS AXIS OF HGT FALLS GRADUALLY SPREADING SERD
TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND/COASTAL PAC NW BY 27/1200Z. CONSIDERING
TELECONNECTIONS UTILIZING THIS NEG ANOMALY CENTER...A BROAD AXIS
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS SUGGESTED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS
WITH A GENERAL MAX ACRS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. IN THIS OMEGA BLOCK
SIGNATURE...AN ELONGATED TROF AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE ERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. THIS FEATURE IN PARTICULAR WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL
ROLE IN HOW MUCH LATITUDE ISAAC WILL GAIN THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD.

LOOKING AT THE DETERMINISTIC/ENS GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE...THE IDEA OF
THIS HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS CONVEYED ACRS THE BOARD.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE NRN STREAM TROF MOVING THRU
THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND ERN U.S. DOES VARY WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS OF
THE EVENTUAL PATH OF ISAAC. CURRENTLY...THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
MEAN MAINTAIN A STRONG ENOUGH 500-MB RIDGE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
SOUTH OF 30N. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE
GFS WHICH HAS MAINTAINED ITS SOLN THE PAST 4 RUNS...INSIST ON
ISAAC BEING DRAWN NWRD. OVERALL...HPC FAVORED A SOLN COMPRISING
THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN WITH SOME COMPLIMENTS FROM THE 00Z UKMET
EARLY ON GIVEN ITS FAVORABLE HANDLING OF THE NRN STREAM.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1414 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:46 am

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:is the center moving over the islands now as we speak or no.

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animator.php?137


not quite over the next few hours.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1415 Postby x-y-no » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:46 am

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:is the center moving over the islands now as we speak or no.

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animator.php?137


No. The center is near the NE edge of the big blob of convection.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1416 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:48 am

Aric is the center south of the forcast track abit?
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#1417 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:48 am

Isaac looks kinda "meh" if you ask me. The members who seem to think he'll strengthen rapidly seem to forget Isaac has a convective look very similar to many storms in it's area...also Isaac has to go through the graveyard and land interaction...I expect GFS to join EURO west. Also, Isaac has gained little latitude. IMO, that is inconsistent with the GFS.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1418 Postby marciacubed » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:48 am

Can someone translate that discussion for me please. Thanks
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Re:

#1419 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:49 am

shaggy wrote:PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1000 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2012

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 26 2012 - 12Z WED AUG 29 2012

...HURCN ISAAC MAY IMPACT FL DURING THE D5-D7 TIME PERIOD...

THE CURRENT 06Z/00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A
VARIETY OF SOLNS PRESENTED THEREBY COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR
INTERESTED PARTIES ACRS THE SERN U.S
.


Would be nice if they fired up the G-IV today to knock down all of these Solutions sooner than later
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1420 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:50 am

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