ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CourierPR]

It looks more impressive on the WV - but that TUTT will make all the difference if it remains in place and it becomes an exposed LLC because of that - we'll see...

P.S. A bit of deja-vu today (lost my rental house in Andrew 20 years ago this Friday)...

Just read NHC forecast discussion on Isaac and saw no mention of a TUTT affecting Isaac's future.

[KWT]

an infrared shot looks decent but a careful inspection using visible shows the system is an organizational shambles. having said that, i never turn my back on any storm in the heart of hurricane season... things can change fast.

Indeed, when you see a strong convective response, even if it is sheared off, it does tend to mean that if the LLC covers itself it'll get off to a quick start. Big if though!

Looking forward to seeing what recon shows shortly.

[Frank2]

Courier,

A dumbell-shaped TUTT feature is visible on WV - any pro mets here to verify that for us?

Frank

[Weatherboy1]

While the fast motion and dry air entrainment has certainly kept Isaac from popping to hurricane strength, I think it is only a matter of time -- and probably not a lot of it either! The circulation envelope is large, convection is ample, and it's going to entering some of the warmest water in the Atlantic Basin. Moreover, the shear is forecast to decrease even further in the next 24 hours or so. I believe the idea this will fizzle a la the HWRF or remain extremely weak a la the euro is highly unlikely. Just my opinion, as an amateur, as always!

[Weatherfreak000]

I know alot of members here truly want this storm, even if they wouldn't admit it. Personally however, any track Isaac could take to alleviate the drought in the middle u.s would be huge. Just something to consider.

[WeatherGuesser]

however, any track Isaac could take to alleviate the drought in the middle u.s would be huge. Just something to consider.

I'd kill for a solid rainmaker to come up into the Mississppi/Ohio River valleys as long as it didn't have Ike-like winds.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

latest

[psyclone]

I know alot of members here truly want this storm, even if they wouldn't admit it. Personally however, any track Isaac could take to alleviate the drought in the middle u.s would be huge. Just something to consider.

My desire for a storm is confined to a low end TS. too many trees around me to want anything more and i have no generator. in general, i think the enthusiasm for storms wanes with age. it sure has for me.

[ozonepete]

Courier,

A dumbell-shaped TUTT feature is visible on WV - any pro mets here to verify that for us?

Frank

That's an upper level low. It doesn't even look like a TUTT low; it is not at or attached to the bottom of a TUTT that would be extending northeastward. the entire TWD from the NHC doesn't mention one:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1155.shtml?

[Senobia]

I know alot of members here truly want this storm, even if they wouldn't admit it. Personally however, any track Isaac could take to alleviate the drought in the middle u.s would be huge. Just something to consider.

Well, I can tell you - with certainty - that it isn't anyone who went through Ike. I can also tell you with the same degree of certainty that those same people are watching this track with a sinking feeling in their stomachs, because it is so similar to the one he took 4 years ago.



NOTE: The image posted in this reply is from 2008 and Hurricane Ike, NOT the current TS Isaac.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 221751
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
200 PM AST WED AUG 22 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 60.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[ROCK]

Courier,

A dumbell-shaped TUTT feature is visible on WV - any pro mets here to verify that for us?

Frank

I mentioned this yesterday but was publicly flogged....

[dizzyfish]

I know alot of members here truly want this storm, even if they wouldn't admit it. Personally however, any track Isaac could take to alleviate the drought in the middle u.s would be huge. Just something to consider.

My desire for a storm is confined to a low end TS. too many trees around me to want anything more and i have no generator. in general, i think the enthusiasm for storms wanes with age. it sure has for me.

Amen to that! I truly fear having high winds after all the rain that has been dumped on us this summer. The trees will fall all over the place.

Anxiously awaiting the final track.

[KWT]

Worth mentioning that sometimes these storms do wierd things when they get close to Haiti, sometimes they bounce off, sometimes they get sucked in, so who knows!

[uhvjaguars22]

Gaining speed not good for organizations 21 mph up from 18

[ROCK]

Worth mentioning that sometimes these storms do wierd things when they get close to Haiti, sometimes they bounce off, sometimes they get sucked in, so who knows!

EURO last night suggested some sort of interaction that really disrupted the storm...that is the wild card, IMO....

[ozonepete]

Courier,

A dumbell-shaped TUTT feature is visible on WV - any pro mets here to verify that for us?

Frank

I mentioned this yesterday but was publicly flogged....

Ha ha, Rock, I remember that. It's not always easy to pick them out since they are a high level feature that often has very few clouds associated with it. But a TUTT is a TROUGH, not a low; an upper level low that forms at the bottom of a TUTT is a TUTT low. But this isn't one in this case. The best thing to do if you're not sure is read the latest Tropical Weather Discussion from the NHC or look at the 200mb analysis for the Atlantic. You will surely see it there.

[jabman98]

Well, I can tell you - with certainty - that it isn't anyone who went through Ike. I can also tell you with the same degree of certainty that those same people are watching this track with a sinking feeling in their stomachs, because it is so similar to the one he took 4 years ago.

That would be me. Seeing that track of Ike that you posted was a reminder of just what can happen. I remember going away for the weekend and Ike was supposed to go east of Florida, or maybe hit Florida. Came back after the weekend and all of a sudden Ike is heading for my house. Not a good feeling.

If the Euro is still sending Isaac to the GOM, that's enough to get me to pay attention. I hope it's nothing more than a weak tropical storm, wherever it hits.

[ROCK]

Gaining speed not good for organizations 21 mph up from 18

horrible to sort out all the internal issues that are going on at the low levels....in compounds them and then you throw in some SAL and we have what we have on RGB....

[tolakram]

Courier,

A dumbell-shaped TUTT feature is visible on WV - any pro mets here to verify that for us?

Frank

I mentioned this yesterday but was publicly flogged....

That was just for you being you. I think someone mentioned that technically that is just an upper level low that is weak and forecast to weaken. I'm not sure the designation means much at this point, the question is ... will it weaken?