ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
KBBOCA
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1559
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2003 5:27 am
Location: Formerly Boca Raton, often West Africa. Currently Charlotte NC

Re:

#2461 Postby KBBOCA » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:40 pm

monicaei wrote:Also, when do the models with the Gulfstream's data come out? (in time other than UTC, please 8-) )


I have been seeing mods & mets (including NHC Twitter feed) saying that the Gulfstream data will show up in the 5 a.m. Eastern advisories and track. I understand that means that data will be fed into the 8 p.m. (00 z) models tonight, which I believe start becoming available 2 to 3 hours after they run.

Just an amateur...
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#2462 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:42 pm

:uarrow: Yes...the 00Z (8 pm EDT) GFS runs start coming out around 11:30 pm EDT, and the Euro is usually a couple hours after that.
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.

JamesCaneTracker
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 207
Joined: Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:33 pm
Location: Portland, Maine

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2463 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:45 pm

Based on Long Range Radar from PR. I would say that northern Circulation is certainly becoming the center... Below is a image showing the latest Radar and the direction the storms are going...

This is just my unprofessional take on it... Please see the latest from the NHC or your local office of the National Weather Service for any life or Death decisions!

Image
0 likes   

sammy126
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 20
Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2012 7:02 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2464 Postby sammy126 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:50 pm

wow, I must say after being on this site for a few days, you all are very good at analysing isaac.
Do you all keep track of how many times you are right and wrong with your forecasting?
"Great site"
0 likes   

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

#2465 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:51 pm

Speed up to 45 on the 8PM, so maybe it's starting to rev the engine?
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2466 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:51 pm

Saved radar loop

Remember this is looking way way up at the MLC at this distance.

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2467 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:53 pm

Compare the radar loop with this saved IR loop

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145665
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re:

#2468 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:55 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:Speed up to 45 on the 8PM, so maybe it's starting to rev the engine?



...ISAAC A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 67.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#2469 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:58 pm

The northern vort on its present course would landfall on hispaniola tomorrow. so if that ends up bring the dominant one then expect the models to change reflecting a system that will likely emerge very weak.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

HurrMark
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 769
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:18 pm
Location: Somerville, MA

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2470 Postby HurrMark » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:59 pm

I don't know if I'm looking at this wrong, but I see no evidence that the center is anywhere near 16.2/67.8. All data I can find shows it is still somewhere below 16...based on the latest Windsat, I would put the center at 16.5/68.5 (not official).
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2471 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:59 pm

JamesCaneTracker wrote:Based on Long Range Radar from PR. I would say that northern Circulation is certainly becoming the center... Below is a image showing the latest Radar and the direction the storms are going...

This is just my unprofessional take on it... Please see the latest from the NHC or your local office of the National Weather Service for any life or Death decisions!

Image


That's just a piece of vorticity rotating around the center. It would put a center around 16.7/68.2...which if you look at the satellite...shows nothing is there but a feeder band.

Also...remember you are not looking at the sfc. At that distance from the radar, you are looking between 17K and 30K feet. No where close to the sfc.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2472 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:00 pm

Well the winds seem to have strengthened, probably due to the strength of the convective bursts, still poorly organised with regards to the structure however.

AFM, I disagree there, the microwave passes recently have shown a strong circulation in that location (you can tell by the way the convection curves around the southern side), so there is something of note up there, its certainly stronger looking than any other circulation out there at the moment.
Last edited by KWT on Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re:

#2473 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:01 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:The northern vort on its present course would landfall on hispaniola tomorrow. so if that ends up bring the dominant one then expect the models to change reflecting a system that will likely emerge very weak.


Another possibility if the northern vort is the dominant one would be it being disrupted and a new vort/center relocation/reformation taking place. I'll say it again...Until Isaac interacts with the islands all options are on the table. Once we know where it will set up shop after the islands then we can nail down the long term track and intensity.

SFT
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
SeminoleWind
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 359
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:37 pm
Location: Lake County Florida

Re:

#2474 Postby SeminoleWind » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:02 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:The northern vort on its present course would landfall on hispaniola tomorrow. so if that ends up bring the dominant one then expect the models to change reflecting a system that will likely emerge very weak.


Wouldnt that make it a little sooner and how might that change the "official" track?, if at all?
0 likes   
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2475 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:05 pm

To back up the idea of the center being up there, this is recons latest pass through:

235030 1628N 06803W 8410 01545 0030 +189 +180 273010 011 027 002 00

Wind shift was a touch north of there, strongly agrees with radar and microwave that this is where the strongest circulation is right now...

Not to say that this will be the dominant vortex, but it is the strongest right now.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2907
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2476 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:07 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Isaac is now beginning to heal from its poor structure earlier on. This could mean at least some steady intensification, or it could be one of the fluctuations the system is going through, between 40 and 45 mph.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

Shuriken

#2477 Postby Shuriken » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:09 pm

If this verifies, we're looking at a storm forecast to be a strong TS upon exiting Cuba given another two and a half days to strengthen in the GOM prior to a non-recurve landfall scenario.

...that raises the hairs on the back of my neck.

Image
Last edited by Shuriken on Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re:

#2478 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:09 pm

KWT wrote:To back up the idea of the center being up there, this is recons latest pass through:

235030 1628N 06803W 8410 01545 0030 +189 +180 273010 011 027 002 00

Wind shift was a touch north of there, strongly agrees with radar and microwave that this is where the strongest circulation is right now...

Not to say that this will be the dominant vortex, but it is the strongest right now.


was jsut about to mention that. the wind field around the northern vort appears to more defined this evening. there is a bunch of missing minob sets that would help but appears to better now. the mid level may die out tonight.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2479 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:11 pm

HurrMark wrote:I don't know if I'm looking at this wrong, but I see no evidence that the center is anywhere near 16.2/67.8. All data I can find shows it is still somewhere below 16...based on the latest Windsat, I would put the center at 16.5/68.5 (not official).


I think that is one they are hanging on to for continuity. There are probably 2 centers...one which is north and one south...under the main MLC near 15/68. I would expect the northern one to eventually get sheared out later tonight as the tstms deepen around the lower latitude circulation.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2480 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:14 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
HurrMark wrote:I don't know if I'm looking at this wrong, but I see no evidence that the center is anywhere near 16.2/67.8. All data I can find shows it is still somewhere below 16...based on the latest Windsat, I would put the center at 16.5/68.5 (not official).


I think that is one they are hanging on to for continuity. There are probably 2 centers...one which is north and one south...under the main MLC near 15/68. I would expect the northern one to eventually get sheared out later tonight as the tstms deepen around the lower latitude circulation.


Its a tough one, I think the northern one is starting to get much more defined, the recon pass matched that microwave pass very nicely with regards to the wind direction and the curvature of that convection.

Then again the MLC has better convective support.

Tough call, no doubt that the models are latching onto the northern one still.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests