ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricanes1234]

Very cold cloudtops - around -80°C in the tallest thunderstorms.

[SunnyThoughts]

AFM...if you have a second, has anything happened or have you seen anything to change your mind about the Destin area? I saw where you were thinking 60 miles or so either way from Destin at one point.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

18z GFDL over southern tip of Fla. At what point do watches go up for the keys?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

ATCF also went with the northern center.

AL, 09, 2012082400, , BEST, 0, 165N, 680W, 40, 1002, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[KWT]

Pressure dropping yet further closer to the MLC, down to nearly 1000mbs according to the noaa flight. Wind shift much more defined further north, but pressure is lower with the southern area.

[hurricanes1234]

00z Best Track

ATCF also went with the northern center.

AL, 09, 2012082400, , BEST, 0, 165N, 680W, 40, 1002, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

No change in strength...am I right?

[Air Force Met]

To back up the idea of the center being up there, this is recons latest pass through:

235030 1628N 06803W 8410 01545 0030 +189 +180 273010 011 027 002 00

Wind shift was a touch north of there, strongly agrees with radar and microwave that this is where the strongest circulation is right now...

Not to say that this will be the dominant vortex, but it is the strongest right now.

was jsut about to mention that. the wind field around the northern vort appears to more defined this evening. there is a bunch of missing minob sets that would help but appears to better now. the mid level may die out tonight.

This will be interesting to watch. Recon now headed SE...glancing blow towards what I think is the second center. Winds are already veering back towards the east some instead of staying SW like they should if this was where the LLC was and was all along. Plus the pressure is staying steady. It was 1003 extrap near the light winds to the north and is 1003.3 with 20 kt winds from the SSE.

Update...just passed through another area of light winds: ESE@5 kts and 1002MB at 15.5/67.5. This is lower than the pressure at 16.3/68.9

[Air Force Met]

AFM...if you have a second, has anything happened or have you seen anything to change your mind about the Destin area? I saw where you were thinking 60 miles or so either way from Destin at one point.

Same thoughts...but I am hedging my bets now to the left a little because I think this thing will redevelop near 15N...and I want to wait until the 12Z models tmw. B/W NOLA/Destin...

[cycloneye]

No change in strength...am I right?

Best Track went up from 35kts to 40kts,same as the 8 PM Advisory.

[ROCK]

2 centers that are fighting it out? this is something you dont see very often...well not like this anyway....

[AdamFirst]

Do you think Isaac's centers are finally consolidating, rather than two dueling vorticities?

[SunnyThoughts]

AFM...if you have a second, has anything happened or have you seen anything to change your mind about the Destin area? I saw where you were thinking 60 miles or so either way from Destin at one point.

Same thoughts...but I am hedging my bets now to the left a little because I think this thing will redevelop near 15N...and I want to wait until the 12Z models tmw. B/W NOLA/Destin...

Thanks for the response AFM, appreciate it

[SFLcane]

If the center does establish itself finally at 16.5N as reported by best track might the change future track?

[Weatherboy1]

Interesting that some of the models tonight are showing Isaac "tagging" South Florida before shifting W or WNW into the Gulf. I wonder how far north he will get before making that turn?

[hurricanes1234]

No change in strength...am I right?

Best Track went up from 35kts to 40kts,same as the 8 PM Advisory.

Again, excuse me for all these questions...I'm fairly new at this.

[brunota2003]

#NOAA42: Doppler analysis from first pass in #Isaac shows circulation doesn't extend above 8 km altitude. Easterly winds above that height.

There's one clue.

[WeatherGuesser]

Are we basically set on the Western Solution or could this thing still swing up the East Coast?

[MGC]

Would not be surprised that the northern circulation is destroyed by the mountain of Hispaniola allowing the southern circulation to become dominate. Just a WAG but that is what I'm thinking......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Portastorm]

Are we basically set on the Western Solution or could this thing still swing up the East Coast?

Nobody is off the hook yet.

[hurricanes1234]

Are we basically set on the Western Solution or could this thing still swing up the East Coast?

Considering how unpredictable Isaac has been, I'd say we should wait another day or so.