ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

It will be interesting down the road. We'll see if the USA may have lucked out once again avoiding a major....

[wxwatcher1999]

Does recon even have a reliable center? I don't see how any movement can be confirmed without that. We have had so many different center reports over the last 24 hours.

exactly what im thinking...how can they have a good motion if they dont have a good center?

[ozonepete]

Does recon even have a reliable center? I don't see how any movement can be confirmed without that. We have had so many different center reports over the last 24 hours.

exactly what im thinking...how can they have a good motion if they dont have a good center?

the same way AFM and Aric have been describing. It's also in the 5AM discussion. Basically they are finding the center around which the LLCs are rotating but also taking into account the higher centers at 5,000 and 10,000 feet roughly and extrapolating the expected position based on continuity from the previous track.

[Dean4Storms]

It looks like Isaac is getting closer at being stacked and could make a run for hurricane strength before hitting Cuba where it is likely to weaken a bit. I don't think that little peninsula of Haiti will have that much effect.

[bucman1]

Looking much better-out flow has really improved and their seems to be some wrapping going on towards the center

[ROCK]

Does recon even have a reliable center? I don't see how any movement can be confirmed without that. We have had so many different center reports over the last 24 hours.

exactly what im thinking...how can they have a good motion if they dont have a good center?

the same way AFM and Aric have been describing. It's also in the 5AM discussion. Basically they are finding the center around which the LLCs are rotating but also taking into account the higher centers at 5,000 and 10,000 feet roughly and extrapolating the expected position based on continuity from the previous track.

so in other words they are guessing..... I knew it....Just follow the blob is what I say until it resolves all these LLCs....

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[wxman57]

I don't see any NW motion (304 deg or greater), possibly WNW. It's easy to be deceived by the satellite loop as your eye is drawn to an area of convection east of the center that is rotating northwestward.

thought recon confirrmed NW motion

Recon had a very hard time finding a well-defined center.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think it should be said...While many of us on here are focused on Florida and points West let's not forget that there are many people in harms way right now in Haiti. We have seen countless times before where even a minor TD or TS can cause a large loss of life (i.e. Jeanne). Let us all keep the people in Hispaniola in our thoughts and prayers as we remain vigilant for the final destination of Isaac.

SFT

[otowntiger]

I don't see any NW motion (304 deg or greater), possibly WNW. It's easy to be deceived by the satellite loop as your eye is drawn to an area of convection east of the center that is rotating northwestward.

thought recon confirrmed NW motion

Recon had a very hard time finding a well-defined center.

Which is the story of Isaac isn't it? Has there EVER been a defined center? As someone else just said, it really is about watching the blob and its overall movement.

[Caribwxgirl]

I think it should be said...While many of us on here are focused on Florida and points West let's not forget that there are many people in harms way right now in Haiti. We have seen countless times before where even a minor TD or TS can cause a large loss of life (i.e. Jeanne). Let us all keep the people in Hispaniola in our thoughts and prayers as we remain vigilant for the final destination of Isaac.

SFT

I second that statement. I said something similar earlier. They really don't need this at all. I pray they are spared the worst of it.

[wxwatcher1999]

this is just my opinion but i still think the center will miss hispaniola to the west...but im not a professional

[ROCK]

Recon had a very hard time finding a well-defined center.[/quote] Which is the story of Isaac isn't it? Has there EVER been a defined center? As someone else just said, it really is about watching the blob and its overall movement. [/quote]



yep that was me... but seriously its still got serious stacknig issues...RECON would not be all over the place at different altitudes if it was clear cut.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Some wrapping going on?

[pgoss11]

Is that finally the COC we are seeing??

[Blown Away]

It does look like an eye, I'll just say it.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Is that finally the COC we are seeing??

Yes, that's why I posted it. The coc looks like an eye, probably a 65mph TS at 11

[Sanibel]

It's got the look now, no doubt.

Good thing there's land ahead of it.

[ozonepete]

http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/3645/isaaac.jpg


Some wrapping going on?

Definitely. Looks like this could, finally, be ramp up time. Not that we haven't said that a zillion times already. And obviously big-time land interaction is not far off.

[ObsessedMiami]

Really waiting til the last minute for that 11 am advisory, aren't they?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Big slug of dry air on the N and NE sides and thus as it "wraps" it will hold off some convection near the core later today. Shear is abating NE quad for sure now