ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[petit_bois]

http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/6263/isaacsatellite2.jpg http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I would say a solid 315 degree heading and to the right of the forecast points.

The line and the circle around the LLC were drawn by me and in no way should be used as a forecast. Thank you!

I believe your LLC depiction is way off... JMHO

[meriland23]

I want to ask something, if this is north and east of PP, and say comes to SE to E Fl, would it ride up the coast line vs go left

[Weatherboy1]

I've been looking at a 24-hr WV loop that shows an upper low over the Carolinas and a trof extending down into the FL Straits. Winds aloft ahead of this trof are from the southwest. This could induce a NW motion of Isaac over the next 24-36 hours, taking the center closer to south Florida before the ridge builds back to its north and turns it back to the WNW and into the eastern Gulf. Hard to say how strong Isaac might get between now and south FL. Seems to have great outflow now but still it's struggling.

That's what I've been trying to flag here. The base of that trof is all the way down around 23N ... and Isaac is probably centered around 17ish. That means we could definitely see the system tugged further north before the ridge builds back in, and that's what the GFS must be sniffing out. Need to see if other models confirm for sure!

[SouthDadeFish]

Not sure if this has been posted yet or not, but microwave imagery is showing some tight spiral banding near the center. We may finally have an inner core trying to form:

[meriland23]

Not sure if this has been posted yet or not, but microwave imagery is showing some tight spiral banding near the center. We may finally have an inner core trying to form:

http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/2528 ... pct91h.jpg

when was that taken? Looks a few hrs behind? center looks more south

[tolakram]

Keep your eyes peeled to the rapid scan loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

I *think* the LLC is fairly evident now, and convection slowly on the increase.

Latest

17:15Z 1:15PM EDT

[wxman57]

G-IV flight path and dropsonde drop plan for today. 36 dropsondes:

http://noaahrd.files.wordpress.com/2012 ... 9track.gif

[Blown Away]

http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/6263/isaacsatellite2.jpg http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I would say a solid 315 degree heading and to the right of the forecast points.

The line and the circle around the LLC were drawn by me and in no way should be used as a forecast. Thank you!

I believe your LLC depiction is way off... JMHO

Go back a few pages and see Aric's graphic that showed an exposed LLC, it was pretty clear, and extrapolate from there. Also, if you click on the visble loop the LLC pops out in the frame I posted.

You may need to press your face against the monitor!

[brunota2003]

Looking at the sat loops, the MLC is around where Aric put his circle. I think there are still two vorts circling around each other (one north of the MLC clearly visible near the tip of land, one probably further south somewhere...) either that or the llc and MLC just haven't hooked up quite yet. Watch to see if that llc starts heading SW in the next few frames or not. Definitely better organized than yesterday though!

[Patrick99]

Well well. There's some fight in old Isaac after all. Getting more interesting, though still not "worried" here in SFL. I guess the questions are how far north does it get, and perhaps more importantly, does it do the whole skirt around land routine some past storms have managed?

Not an easy storm to forecast.

[ozonepete]

Too late for RI now. Even if it stayed just slightly offshore, a large part of the northern half of the circulation and core is already over land and much of the circulation will be until around Sunday morning.

[meriland23]

Well well. There's some fight in old Isaac after all. Getting more interesting, though still not "worried" here in SFL. I guess the questions are how far north does it get, and perhaps more importantly, does it do the whole skirt around land routine some past storms have managed?

Not an easy storm to forecast.

probably one of the most unpredicatable ones thus far.. in my opinion

[Aric Dunn]

if you look at the 1km loop you clearly see the llc exposed then convection build over it. it is now fully under the ball of convection.

[meriland23]

if you look at the 1km loop you clearly see the llc exposed then convection build over it. it is now fully under the ball of convection.

so ..strengthening yes?

[Aric Dunn]

recon will likely find pressures around 998 or so

[SouthFloridawx]

recon will likely find pressures around 998 or so

Can you post a link, I am at work and don't have my bookmarks?

[Blinhart]

I don't know if it matters any, but the weather here in South Louisiana has winds out of the South and storms racing to the North. Looking at some of these graphics you would think it would be the other way around, but it's not. Could this have some implications on the future path of Isaac?

[SouthDadeFish]

Total Precipitable Water Microwave Imagery shows Isaac is located in a relatively moist environment:



Dry air shouldn't be much of a problem over the next 24 hours.

[Blown Away]

Keep your eyes peeled to the rapid scan loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

I *think* the LLC is fairly evident now, and convection slowly on the increase.

Latest

17:15Z 1:15PM EDT

http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/784/zztemp.jpg[/img]

This where you see it tolakram?

[Sanibel]

I think this thing is well right of trop points.


Could spell a closer track to SW Florida.


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