ATL: ISAAC - Models

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PTrackerLA
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#3361 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:53 pm

I know the NAM isn't good for tropical systems but is it showing a stronger ridge than earlier?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3362 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:53 pm

Jevo,

Does it appear that the NAM has a stronger ridge this time as compared to last nights 00z run where it started the trend of a weaker ridge with the G-IV data ingested into it?

SFT
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#3363 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:58 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Does gain some lat by H 84.


Aric is much better at explaining the nuiances of the NAM than I am, but from what I do know it that it's not really used to plotting and forecasting tropical cyclones as much as it used for in showing the enviroment impacting the system..

The running joke is that whenever you post a NAM the format should be

I know it's the NAM.. but 18Z +84

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3364 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:03 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Jevo,

Does it appear that the NAM has a stronger ridge this time as compared to last nights 00z run where it started the trend of a weaker ridge with the G-IV data ingested into it?

SFT


This run would have balloon data and any recon data... But Aric explained it earlier that we wouldnt see new G-IV data until 0z

PTrackerLA wrote:I know the NAM isn't good for tropical systems but is it showing a stronger ridge than earlier?


Tough to say.. It looks flat into the midwest towards the end... im not sure I put 100% confidence in this NAM... A track taking it to the FL Keys then a left into the Central Gulf.... I think it's another wait and see till 0z
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#3365 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:19 pm

is the NAM still running?
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Re:

#3366 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:20 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:is the NAM still running?


No sir.. The NAM only runs out 84 hours.. At least on the site I use
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Re: Re:

#3367 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:22 pm

Jevo wrote:
wxwatcher1999 wrote:is the NAM still running?


No sir.. The NAM only runs out 84 hours.. At least on the site I use


LOL...Thank God!

GFS Rolls in 8 Mins...See if it sticks to its guns with some more data injested..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3368 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:23 pm

Another reminder.

We have a discussion thread for discussions, this thread is for model runs and discussion of them only.

One liners, jokes, model war posts and off topic posts will be removed without warning.

Thanks.
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#3369 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:23 pm

My 18z GFS guess: First LF a touch east of 12z, second landfall at Pcola.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3370 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:30 pm

GFS is Rolling...Initialized maybe a bit South but not bad.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3371 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:35 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:GFS is Rolling...Initialized maybe a bit South but not bad.


its the 18z no need to pay too much attention to it.
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#3372 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:36 pm

Aric what's wrong with the 18Z GFS?
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Re:

#3373 Postby petit_bois » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:38 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Aric what's wrong with the 18Z GFS?


No new NOAA jet data
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3374 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:39 pm

The 00z and 12z runs have much more data than the 06z and 18z ones.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3375 Postby Dydion » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:40 pm

How long does it take after the GFS run for the whole run to show up on the model sites like the FSU site in the MODELS link at the top of the page? Or any model run, for that matter? I'm presuming the Euro is the ecmwf-oper?

Thanks.
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#3376 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:40 pm

But the 18Z run still has some rawindsonde data in it due to the launching every six hours, correct?
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#3377 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:41 pm

Don't like the look of that NAM run...geez.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3378 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:41 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:GFS is Rolling...Initialized maybe a bit South but not bad.


its the 18z no need to pay too much attention to it.


I'm looking more at the trends than anything Aric. Wouldn't the 18z still have the balloon and recon data in it from today???

SFT
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Re:

#3379 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:42 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Don't like the look of that NAM run...geez.



will you post it please?
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Re:

#3380 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:42 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:But the 18Z run still has some rawindsonde data in it due to the launching every six hours, correct?


sometimes. but its still typically just a re run of the 12z data.
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