ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[brunota2003]

Isaac already has a CDO...it's just that the convection inside of it is not very deep at all, currently...however, that may change over the next couple hours...as those storms may continue to fire.

[ColinDelia]

Can someone post a GOES 14 image? I am on my iPad, no flash.

I can see it on my iPad. It's just a big file

[HurricaneAndrew92]

If it follows its pattern..passing out at noon,peaking at its worst at4-5 then at 8 getting better and looking best at 5-9am, we will see convection fire.

[psyclone]

I think the confusion here is also the fact there are watches outside the cone. The cone is confusing, as it is simply a line with the rate of error in miles for the center on either side at that particular timeframe- such as 12, 24, 36, 48, hours, etc. That means that if the center (eye) of the storm were to travel to the outer line of the cone, etc. then those outside the cone would see the effects of hurricane force winds, possibly or tropical storm force, etc. Whatever the storm happens to be at that point. I hope this makes sense.
An example, here in Palm Beach county we are actaully just outside the cone yet we are already under a tropical storm watch.

Bryan Norcross did a good job on TWC explaining that TS force winds would basically extend all acrossthe entire peninsula of FL if it followed the GFS track, not just affecting "the cone"

The "forecast" cone has nothing to do with the area of TS or Hurricane force winds. The cone does not show where and how severe impacts will be only the possible error out in time of the forecast track.

a great way to illustrate this is to look at a historical advisory for a storm approaching landfall. you'll see large areas of coastline outside of the cone under warnings. they're going to get hit, just not by the center. large storms have windfields that extend well beyond their respective cone. the wind probability maps the NHC provides are under utilized. they are a terrific resource.

[KBBOCA]

I think the confusion here is also the fact there are watches outside the cone. The cone is confusing, as it is simply a line with the rate of error in miles for the center on either side at that particular timeframe- such as 12, 24, 36, 48, hours, etc. That means that if the center (eye) of the storm were to travel to the outer line of the cone, etc. then those outside the cone would see the effects of hurricane force winds, possibly or tropical storm force, etc. Whatever the storm happens to be at that point. I hope this makes sense.
An example, here in Palm Beach county we are actaully just outside the cone yet we are already under a tropical storm watch.

Yes, it is REALLY important to remember that the cone does not show the areas to be impacted. I know I've already posted on this yesterday, but some of the worst impact of Isaac in the islands was in Trinidad - severe rain and flooding - which was 400 miles to the south of the center and not in any cone nor under any watches / warnings. With big storms like this, the impacts can be real and serious OUTSIDE THE CONE. I truly hope local mets will keep stressing this in their broadcasts to help the average public understand!

At one point Isaac was 1000 miles in diameter while still very weak and disorganized. I don't know what he is now, but that means even if he were to landfall in the keys, Miami could be impacted, etc.

Just an amateur, but really concerned that folks not only focus on who is inside the cone.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

TWC just said center is where white X is..I say its where the red X is.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm with Andrew on the Red X being the center and if the white X is the center then I definitely need to get my eyes checked...Or maybe TWC needs to get theirs checked. The white X doesn't look right.

SFT

[Meteorcane]

That white x looks really incorrect and must have been an error by TWC if indeed they claimed that was the center.

[summersquall]

I think the confusion here is also the fact there are watches outside the cone. The cone is confusing, as it is simply a line with the rate of error in miles for the center on either side at that particular timeframe- such as 12, 24, 36, 48, hours, etc. That means that if the center (eye) of the storm were to travel to the outer line of the cone, etc. then those outside the cone would see the effects of hurricane force winds, possibly or tropical storm force, etc. Whatever the storm happens to be at that point. I hope this makes sense.
An example, here in Palm Beach county we are actaully just outside the cone yet we are already under a tropical storm watch.

Bryan Norcross did a good job on TWC explaining that TS force winds would basically extend all acrossthe entire peninsula of FL if it followed the GFS track, not just affecting "the cone"

The "forecast" cone has nothing to do with the area of TS or Hurricane force winds. The cone does not show where and how severe impacts will be only the possible error out in time of the forecast track.

Wundermap from http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... &ft=0&sl=0


Clearly, should Isaac follow the eastern border of the guidance envelope, much of the east coast of south/central Florida would see TS winds - not to mention that that track places us in the dreaded northeast quadrant. Should models trend more easterly in the coming hours more watches will probably go up. (Just my very meteorologically uneducated opinion.)

[tolakram]

TWC probably just made a mistake. We know where the center is, recon just identified it. Let's stop posting every mistake the media makes.

[KBBOCA]

I think the confusion here is also the fact there are watches outside the cone. ...

Yeah the cone is not an "impacts cone" Wind radii would perform that function better.

I'll be creating another one of those this evening (posted one back on either Tuesday or Wednesday I think it was). I don't think it'll get the real "impact" threat out there atm because there is so much uncertainty, especially out to 120 hours.

It might be helpful if potentially flooding rainfall could be included in the "impacts cone" too - the southern part of the circulation seemed to dump TONS of rain on Trinidad and elsewhere. As I see it there are 3 different types of impact:
- storm surge
- winds - including potential tornadic risk areas away from the center
- intense rain / flooding.

Another example of impact far from the center was Irene last year. Much of the focus was the NYC metro area where landfall was forecast, but wind and surge caused little damage. Much of the worst impact was the devastating inland flooding in upstate NY, vermont, and also North Jersey, etc.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Isaac's gonna make Landfall in Haiti in about an hour

[JamesCaneTracker]

:uarrow: I'm with Andrew on the Red X being the center and if the white X is the center then I definitely need to get my eyes checked...Or maybe TWC needs to get theirs checked. The white X doesn't look right.

SFT

Recon is in the system, clearly showing where the center is... It is in fact where you guys have the red X... I have no idea what the TWC is seeing or where they are getting their data from because they are clearly not getting it from Recon!

[Hurricane Andrew]

I am back. This happens with so many storms, they look great as they landfall.

Isaac, Ernesto, Alex,...

[stephen23]

How long an estimate for landfall in Haiti? Around 6 hours or so?

[Meteorcane]

RECON showing northern semicircle is quite intense lots of 60ish kt flight level winds, lack of great convection limits their transport to the surface however, as most surface winds are in the 40-50 kt range, however I think Isaac will see some more convective bursts tonight, with only some minor interference from Hati.


My opinion only

[KBBOCA]

Here's what Dr. Jeff Masters posted in his latest blog update re: Isaac. Very well put:

Residents of South Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas should not focus overly much of the exact track of the center of Isaac, because the storm's heaviest winds and rain will be spread out over a large area, and will not be focused near the core of the storm. Tropical storm-force winds currently extend outwards 185 miles to the right of Isaac's center, and will continue to extend outwards about this far as the storm passes by the Bahamas and South Florida. Heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches will be common along this swath. I recommend using the latest wind probability forecast from NHC to see your odds of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or higher.

from here: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2202

[guyclaude08]

Hello everyone it's been a long time since i came here i"m in Santiago Dominican Republic and it's really dark right now it has been raining all day long.For some reason i feel like it's getting stronger by the hours i would like to know if there's going to be a lot of wind tonight in Santiago DR ??? btw i'm in the north part of the country thx

[ROCK]

looks like some warming tops in and around the center. I though it look better when it had 3 centers...to be honest....

[KBBOCA]

By the way, I know we're all focused on every wobble of Isaac right now, but it is worth a 5 - 10 minute diversion to check out what Typhoon Bolaven is doing in the WPAC right now. Up to 145 MPH winds (Cat 4 I believe) and just incredible looking... and land is in its path.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 6_sat.html
viewtopic.php?f=76&t=113383&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=60