ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneseddy]

Here's the exact statement from the NHC 11 p.m. forecast advisory about hurricane watches in FL. I'm not sure exactly where Ocean Reef is in relation to Miami.


A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FOR THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM OCEAN REEF ON THE EAST COAST
WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST.

Ocean Reef is pretty much the northern extent of the Keys before the mainland

[evenoelle]

Here's the exact statement from the NHC 11 p.m. forecast advisory about hurricane watches in FL. I'm not sure exactly where Ocean Reef is in relation to Miami.

It's where you would see Key Largo on the map. About 60 miles south.

[JPmia]

Here's the exact statement from the NHC 11 p.m. forecast advisory about hurricane watches in FL. I'm not sure exactly where Ocean Reef is in relation to Miami.


A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FOR THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM OCEAN REEF ON THE EAST COAST
WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST.

Ocean Reef is the northern tip of the keys island chain.. as you drive south from homestead/florida city.. you'll be in Ocean Reef and Key Largo.

[SapphireSea]

Here's the exact statement from the NHC 11 p.m. forecast advisory about hurricane watches in FL. I'm not sure exactly where Ocean Reef is in relation to Miami.


A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FOR THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM OCEAN REEF ON THE EAST COAST
WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST.

Ocean Reef is the northern tip of the keys island chain.. as you drive south from homestead/Florida city.. you'll be in Ocean Reef and Key Largo.

I don't recall an actual Geographical marker as Ocean Reef, so I believe it is the community on the north east part of Key Largo. I used to go there alot on business. It's a small town / giant gated community / resort.

[WeatherOrKnot]

It has been raining pretty much non stop since 6pm here in southern Palm Beach County. Periods of heavy winds and lots of thunder/lightening as well.

[MGC]

Ocean Reef might be just south of the Last Chance Bar in Florida City...not that I've been there!?!?!

Recon will have to do high altitude around the mountains....do you think they will wait for it to move offshore before doing a pentration?......MGC

[MHurricanes]

The eye should cross the coast over the next few hours. It may have just enough time to become a Category 1 hurricane, depending on what recon finds in just a bit.

On infrared, it looks like an eyewall is forming. How long will it take for Isaac to traverse the narrow peninsula near Jacmel?

[smw1981]

The eye should cross the coast over the next few hours. It may have just enough time to become a Category 1 hurricane, depending on what recon finds in just a bit.

On infrared, it looks like an eyewall is forming. How long will it take for Isaac to traverse the narrow peninsula near Jacmel?

Not long..it is pretty narrow. Maybe 2 hours if he is moving 10-12mph (give or take some) would be my guess. It appears to be between 20-25 miles wide on Google maps. Of course, it also depends on how fast he decides to move at that time!

[JPmia]

Anyone have the latest Rapid Intensification parameters?

Anyone know where to find this info?

[MHurricanes]

The eye should cross the coast over the next few hours. It may have just enough time to become a Category 1 hurricane, depending on what recon finds in just a bit.

On infrared, it looks like an eyewall is forming. How long will it take for Isaac to traverse the narrow peninsula near Jacmel?

Not long..it is pretty narrow. Maybe 3 hours (give or take some) would be my guess. Of course, it also depends on how fast he decides to move at that time!

On its current track, it looks like Isaac will only brush the east end of Cuba. The storm could track into the Florida Straits as a near-hurricane and then intensify rapidly.

[CronkPSU]

Anyone have the latest Rapid Intensification parameters?

Anyone know where to find this info?

Rapid Intensification:
An increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt in a 24-h period.

also seen a decrease of 42 mb in 24 hours as well

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

[MHurricanes]

Anyone have the latest Rapid Intensification parameters?

Anyone know where to find this info?

Rapid Intensification:
An increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt in a 24-h period.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

[MGC]

I'd say the chance of RI is quite low for the next 36 hours due to Isaac's close proximity to land......MGC

[boca]

Im not sure if this is a model thread statement or here in discussion but wxman57 said that thought from eastern North Carolina to the Florida Straits is pulling Issac north west but I see over Florida the clouds are moving Northward so its possible that Issac can hit the SE coast of Florida but highly unlikely

[TCmet]

Anyone have the latest Rapid Intensification parameters?

Anyone know where to find this info?

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%)


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

Actually, RI chances are quite high right now, but I don't believe these numbers take into account land interactions.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think that a lot of people should be prepared for the next few days.

[JPmia]

Anyone have the latest Rapid Intensification parameters?

Anyone know where to find this info?

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%)


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

Actually, RI chances are quite high right now, but I don't believe these numbers take into account land interactions.

thanks.. that's what i was looking for! thanks everyone else for the info too.

[meriland23]

I don't know how this will ever...ever reach major hurricane status if it only has 96 hrs before landfall

[boca]

I don't know how this will ever...ever reach major hurricane status if it only has 96 hrs before landfall

You mean a couple of hours

[JamesCaneTracker]

I don't know how this will ever...ever reach major hurricane status if it only has 96 hrs before landfall

You mean a couple of hours

I'm sure she is talking about it's final US Landfall...