ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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meriland23
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Re: Re:

#3681 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:01 am

boca wrote:
meriland23 wrote:I don't know how this will ever...ever reach major hurricane status if it only has 96 hrs before landfall


You mean a couple of hours

I mean landfall in the gulf somewhere.. golly gee I hope it don't turn into no MH in a couple of hours ! That would be horrible :S
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Re: Re:

#3682 Postby smw1981 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:04 am

meriland23 wrote:
boca wrote:
meriland23 wrote:I don't know how this will ever...ever reach major hurricane status if it only has 96 hrs before landfall


You mean a couple of hours

I mean landfall in the gulf somewhere.. golly gee I hope it don't turn into no MH in a couple of hours ! That would be horrible :S


I'm confused...do you want to reach major status? Or did you think it would?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3683 Postby orion » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:05 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:It could just be me but it almost looks like Hispaniola may be pulling the center to the NNW with frictional forces and rotational dynamics. Not sure if those are appropriate scientific terms or not. This is what I spoke about previously about the land causing track changes and center reformations.
SFT


I was just looking at the vorticity loop at http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 4java.html
You can see the land interaction you were talking about as the winds out of the NNE get 'turned' as friction slows the wind over the mountainous areas creating positive vorticity (cyclonic motion) as Isaac approaches Haiti and then Cuba. Will be interesting to see if this interaction causes Isaac to nudge more NNW (and perhaps less interaction with land?) Or if the interaction will mess with the formation of the eye that looks to be occurring as he approaches Haiti.

~orion

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#3684 Postby smw1981 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:05 am

Does anyone know where to get the probabilities listing that it will hit X area? I know that in past years, people posted it here (or a link to it), but I don't know where to go to get it! Thanks!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3685 Postby Recurve » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:05 am

First chance I've had to post an AOML/HRD windfield analysis map for Isaac. This is the latest,9:30 pm EDT; earlier ones are archived and they will be issued regularly as resources permit I believe:

Image

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The Integrated Kinetic Energy calculation feeds into the resulting Destructive Potential Rating, which is an alternative to SS intensity scale. DPR tries to capture total impacts of both wind and surge, with separate ratings on a scale of 0 to 6.

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/Operational/2012/AL092012/0825/0130/AL092012_0825_0130_contour08.png
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#3686 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:07 am

Looks like it is on the NHC track points, you cannot really go by sat presentation especially at night as the tops of clouds can deceive you as to where the actual center is located.
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Re: Re:

#3687 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:08 am

[I'm confused...do you want to reach major status? Or did you think it would?


Huh? No I don't want it to be a huge thing like that, but I have heard from several mets that the time spent in the gulf... it very very well could, I just don't see how it could given the short amount of time
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Re:

#3688 Postby artist » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:10 am

smw1981 wrote:Does anyone know where to get the probabilities listing that it will hit X area? I know that in past years, people posted it here (or a link to it), but I don't know where to go to get it! Thanks!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0248.shtml
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3689 Postby MHurricanes » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:12 am

From Joe Bastardi:

"Expect this to be 970 mb or lower by Sunday evening."

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 48/photo/1
Last edited by MHurricanes on Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3690 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:14 am

JB tweeted he thinks it could RI in the Straits and make Cat2 or 3 in the Keys!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3691 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:14 am

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

Sunday Night Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. [b]Windy, with a northeast wind 15 to 25 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. [/b]Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. [b]Windy, with a east wind around 40 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph[/b]. Chance of precipitation is 70%. :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3692 Postby Meteorcane » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:15 am

Looks to be very close to making landfall in Haiti, RECON should confirm.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3693 Postby JPmia » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:15 am

MHurricanes wrote:From Joe Bastardi:

"Expect this to be 970 mb or lower by Sunday evening."

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 48/photo/1


lol he must expect rapid intensification between FL and Cuba? that's why i was asking earlier to see what the current numbers look like.
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Re:

#3694 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:16 am

Dean4Storms wrote:JB tweeted he thinks it could RI in the Straits and make Cat2 or 3 in the Keys!

:hmm: hmmm
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Re: Re:

#3695 Postby smw1981 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:16 am

meriland23 wrote:
[I'm confused...do you want to reach major status? Or did you think it would?


Huh? No I don't want it to be a huge thing like that, but I have heard from several mets that the time spent in the gulf... it very very well could, I just don't see how it could given the short amount of time


Gotcha..that's what I wondered because I haven't heard that. I know some mets on here have said that they don't think it could get that too terribly strong because the gulf isn't as warm as it normally is (and some other things that I don't remember because it's been a long night of tropics watching!), hence why I was confused! I, of course, have no idea... :)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3696 Postby MHurricanes » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:18 am

JPmia wrote:
MHurricanes wrote:From Joe Bastardi:

"Expect this to be 970 mb or lower by Sunday evening."

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 48/photo/1


lol he must expect rapid intensification between FL and Cuba? that's why i was asking earlier to see what the current numbers look like.


Here is the correct link to Bastardi's Tweet:

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 48/photo/1
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3697 Postby pricetag56 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:18 am

Can someone find any history on storm intensity as they past through the florida straits because it seems like its been a hot spot for spinning up powerful storms?
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#3698 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:19 am

:uarrow: hmm I thought the gulf was more worm than usual? iono..iono anymore lol.. it'll do what it'll do :P
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3699 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:19 am

KBBOCA wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:you think hurr watch will be issue for south area of miami?


There ALREADY IS a hurricane watch for SE FL south of Miami.
Look at the pink band outside of the blue on the NHC tracking map - that's a hurricane watch.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

i was saying for miami area i saw south of miami?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3700 Postby MHurricanes » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:23 am

Bastardi Tweet:

"This should be a multi billion dollar storm.. cat 2 or 3 in keys. GFS very close to the weatherbell track."


https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 36/photo/1
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