ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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smw1981
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Re: Re:

#3721 Postby smw1981 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:03 am

floridasun78 wrote:
smw1981 wrote:New Advisory:

Still 990mb, moving NW at 13mph

did pressure drop more?


No, same as last advisory.
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Re: Re:

#3722 Postby smw1981 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:04 am

smw1981 wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:
smw1981 wrote:New Advisory:

Still 990mb, moving NW at 13mph

did pressure drop more?


No, same as last advisory.


Only change was he slowed 1mph
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Re:

#3723 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:04 am

KBBOCA wrote:Here's the exact statement from the NHC 11 p.m. forecast advisory about hurricane watches in FL. I'm not sure exactly where Ocean Reef is in relation to Miami.


A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FOR THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM OCEAN REEF ON THE EAST COAST
WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST.


It's located in north Key Largo.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3724 Postby stormhunter7 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:07 am

Recon just glazed the center of Isaac.. Its less than 10 miles from making landfall in Haiti.
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Re:

#3725 Postby artist » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:10 am

smw1981 wrote:artist, were you thinking that Dean was SeaninNewOrleans? That is one person I can think of that was here for Katrina but I never see anymore on here. (I was on here under a different name then.)

We haven't seen him in awhile, have we? Maybe it was Frank P? I remember they lived on the water there in MS, I believe. Had to rebuild their house?
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#3726 Postby southerngale » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:11 am

Stop by the chatroom and chat about Isaac with your fellow s2k'ers. It's active now. Drop by!

http://webchat.esper.net/?channels=storm2k
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#3727 Postby summersquall » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:12 am

Thanks brunato. I like your map very much. :D
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Re: Re:

#3728 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:12 am

artist wrote:
smw1981 wrote:artist, were you thinking that Dean was SeaninNewOrleans? That is one person I can think of that was here for Katrina but I never see anymore on here. (I was on here under a different name then.)

We haven't seen him in awhile, have we? Maybe it was Frank P? I remember they lived on the water there in MS, I believe. Had to rebuild their house?

viewtopic.php?f=33&t=87773

Him? According to his profile he was on earlier today.
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Re:

#3729 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:20 am

artist wrote:you know, it seems to me we watched a storm many years ago that seemed to seek out the lowest and point as well as the quickest route over here. :lol: Can't for the life of me remember what storm it was!

Are you thinking of Hurricane Tomas of 2010? It was the first tropical cyclone I saw that completely and cleanly went through the Mona passage.

JB's prediction of 970 mb before the Sunday night period is over is not that wild, I can see that happening. Issac has a history of lower pressure readings for a normal strength TS. Also, the Gulf is running above normal in SST's but interestingly enough, the Florida Straits have slightly warmer waters than that so RI is possible there for sure.

Issac has maintained itself better than I was expecting so far. And the latest speed is 1 mph slower? Looks to be speeding up not slowing down.
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Re: Re:

#3730 Postby Umbris » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:23 am

SapphireSea wrote:
JPmia wrote:
KBBOCA wrote:Here's the exact statement from the NHC 11 p.m. forecast advisory about hurricane watches in FL. I'm not sure exactly where Ocean Reef is in relation to Miami.


A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FOR THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM OCEAN REEF ON THE EAST COAST
WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST.


Ocean Reef is the northern tip of the keys island chain.. as you drive south from homestead/Florida city.. you'll be in Ocean Reef and Key Largo.


I don't recall an actual Geographical marker as Ocean Reef, so I believe it is the community on the north east part of Key Largo. I used to go there alot on business. It's a small town / giant gated community / resort.


Yes, Ocean Reef Club is a private gated community in North Key Largo, just north of Card Sound Road and north of the old Largo Nike Missile IFC post. In relation to Miami, its about 15 miles directly SE of Homestead and about 30 miles directly south of Miami.
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#3731 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:25 am

Looks to me like its very close to landfall, its interesting to see that its still off land, especially after its motion before 00z, but there you go!

If it does take the offshore track and stays as far away from Cuba as possible then things are going to get interesting to say the least, even if it does get disrupted.
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Re:

#3732 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:30 am

summersquall wrote:Thanks brunato. I like your map very much. :D

Thanks :) weird, I can't get on the site on my comp all of a sudden, but I can get on with my phone
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Re: Re:

#3733 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:33 am

brunota2003 wrote:
summersquall wrote:Thanks brunato. I like your map very much. :D

Thanks :) weird, I can't get on the site on my comp all of a sudden, but I can get on with my phone



Has happened to me for the last 3 nights around 230am
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3734 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:34 am

Trough is digging a little further into the east right now. In response to it Isaac seems to be moving a little more NNW like 340 degrees instead of due NW. This could be important for the future track, meaning the models may have to shift back a little more east again towards the east coast of Florida. Would also mean that Isaac could get out over open very warm water where it can intensify earlier than we thought. Way too early still to know if this latest trend will last, but once again we'll have to wait for the next model output, which isn't until the 12Z runs which we will see at around 11:30AM. Don't think you can say much before they come out. JMHO.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3735 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:35 am

ozonepete wrote:Trough is digging a little further into the east right now. In response to it Isaac seems to be moving a little more NNW like 340 degrees instead of due NW. This could be important for the future track, meaning the models may have to shift back a little more east again towards the east coast of Florida. Would also mean that Isaac could get out over open very warm water where it can intensify earlier than we thought. Way too early still to know if this latest trend will last, but once again we'll have to wait for the next model output, which isn't until the 12Z runs which we will see at around 11:30AM. Don't think you can say much before they come out. JMHO.

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So it could end up brushing the east coast of fl?
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Re: Re:

#3736 Postby summersquall » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:35 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:
summersquall wrote:Thanks brunato. I like your map very much. :D

Thanks :) weird, I can't get on the site on my comp all of a sudden, but I can get on with my phone



Has happened to me for the last 3 nights around 230am


me too, must be some kind of server maintenance, stinks when it corresponds with the euro run.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3737 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:37 am

ozonepete wrote:Trough is digging a little further into the east right now. In response to it Isaac seems to be moving a little more NNW like 340 degrees instead of due NW. This could be important for the future track, meaning the models may have to shift back a little more east again towards the east coast of Florida. Would also mean that Isaac could get out over open very warm water where it can intensify earlier than we thought. Way too early still to know if this latest trend will last, but once again we'll have to wait for the next model output, which isn't until the 12Z runs which we will see at around 11:30AM. Don't think you can say much before they come out. JMHO.

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thought that happened a few hrs ago..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3738 Postby pricetag56 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:37 am

it looks like the center has made landfall already? No?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3739 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:38 am

Hurricane Alexis wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Trough is digging a little further into the east right now. In response to it Isaac seems to be moving a little more NNW like 340 degrees instead of due NW. This could be important for the future track, meaning the models may have to shift back a little more east again towards the east coast of Florida. Would also mean that Isaac could get out over open very warm water where it can intensify earlier than we thought. Way too early still to know if this latest trend will last, but once again we'll have to wait for the next model output, which isn't until the 12Z runs which we will see at around 11:30AM. Don't think you can say much before they come out. JMHO.

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So it could end up brushing the east coast of fl?


It could go right over the southeast coast of Florida. But we will have to wait and see what the computer model output shows when it comes out around 11:30 to 12 NOON tomorrow.


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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3740 Postby SapphireSea » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:39 am

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Storm's NW is having issues building storms due to mountains and it seems like the storms from the trough/outflow just off of FL are likely not helping the case. While this is not condusive for steady strengthening, it looks like it has enough convection around to sustain. I believe Haiti's disruption is and will be very limited. Cuba is up next, but current motion may give it the opportunity to also avoid it. If the center stays off-shore and can keep it's circulation sufficiently away from the mountains, I don't think there will be any more surprise reformations or wobbles. It will all be up to the synoptics.
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