ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[pcolaman]

So is it safe to say the upper Texas coast and sw Louisiana is in the clear?

Until it gets north of you ,never turn ur back .

[floridasun78]

i be looking to see how far off cuba coast will it move my weather man say here in miami say we could see cone be move more to east track too that but miami closer to center

[otowntiger]

it really looks like hispaniola has done a number to isaac. even though the center may have cleared land, it's very lopsided and the low level circ may be impacted by the nearby higher elevations for some time to come. look at the lack of convection north and west of the center. perhaps downsloping winds are contributing. with the way Isaac has behaved, my inclination is to bet against strengthening until there's compelling evidence to the contrary.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Most everybody expected this. I'm not sure what you expected but I didn't see anyone say they thought this thing would do anything but weaken while crossing a MOUNTAINOUS region, lol. Nor is anyone expecting it to intensify while interacting with the mountainous terrain nearby. The forecast and general consensus is that it will gradually strengthen once it is far enough away from land.

[psyclone]

it really looks like hispaniola has done a number to isaac. even though the center may have cleared land, it's very lopsided and the low level circ may be impacted by the nearby higher elevations for some time to come. look at the lack of convection north and west of the center. perhaps downsloping winds are contributing. with the way Isaac has behaved, my inclination is to bet against strengthening until there's compelling evidence to the contrary.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Most everybody expected this. I'm not sure what you expected but I didn't see anyone say they thought this thing would do anything but weaken while crossing a MOUNTAINOUS region, lol. Nor is anyone expecting it to intensify while interacting with the mountainous terrain nearby. The forecast and general consensus is that it will gradually strengthen once it is far enough away from land.

My comment is in the context of an assumption that just crossing the tiburon peninsula and mostly shooting the windward passage wouldn't be that harmful to the storm. that doesn't appear to be the case. i know nothing of the big blowup of convection over south florida and how might impact the storm but that didn't appear well forecasted either.

[smw1981]

Not too happy about the fact HWRF takes this all the way down to 940 mb on the western panhandle, lowest I have seen Isaac forecasted (in strength)

Good morning Meriland! HWRF is not too good with forecasting strength, so I wouldn't put too weight on it.

[Stephanie]

it really looks like hispaniola has done a number to isaac. even though the center may have cleared land, it's very lopsided and the low level circ may be impacted by the nearby higher elevations for some time to come. look at the lack of convection north and west of the center. perhaps downsloping winds are contributing. with the way Isaac has behaved, my inclination is to bet against strengthening until there's compelling evidence to the contrary.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Most everybody expected this. I'm not sure what you expected but I didn't see anyone say they thought this thing would do anything but weaken while crossing a MOUNTAINOUS region, lol. Nor is anyone expecting it to intensify while interacting with the mountainous terrain nearby. The forecast and general consensus is that it will gradually strengthen once it is far enough away from land.

Sometimes it is surprising to a person to see what is left to a storm after crossing over a mountainous terrain. Still, I wouldn't place any kind of bet on a tropical system.

[cpdaman]

tailgater doesn't look like it's gonna be spending 5-6 hours over E cuba to me...unless it starts wobblin WNW in next frame..(which it could) ....the gitmo radar is not a good way to track the center if that is what anyone is doing

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html (latest frame seems to show clouds /surrounding LLC to thicken and this could go to town again by this afternoon *if it is not pull'd WNW shortly into NE cuban coastline* next few hours crucial

[jlauderdal]

Well whatever that trough area is in the vicinity of the Keys, it is soaking us here in South FL. Been pouring in Jupiter on and off all morning ... and Isaac isn't even supposed to be in our neighborhood for another 24-36 hours. I do still wonder if this more northerly component is going to continue a bit longer than anticipated. Seems like Isaac is consistently missing model and forecast points to the north and east - not by a lot, but a little. And each miss increases the risk further up the coast of FL. All in my amateur opinion, of course.

usually we get some nice weather before these systems but this thing is so sloppy...if we have to go out and shutter up its not going to be pretty in these conditions..its breezy and wet already

[meriland23]

Not too happy about the fact HWRF takes this all the way down to 940 mb on the western panhandle, lowest I have seen Isaac forecasted (in strength)

Good morning Meriland! HWRF is not too good with forecasting strength, so I wouldn't put too weight on it.

good morning . yeah, I am not putting much weight.. but still a considerable drop from the last hwrf run, same with gdfl. I don't put really any thought into intensity on any models, even gfs.. that is one of those things I think Isaac only knows, ya know?

[tailgater]

tailgater doesn't look like it's gonna be spending 5-6 hours over E cuba to me...unless it starts wobblin WNW in next frame..(which it could) ....the gitmo radar is not a good way to track the center if that is what anyone is doing

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html (latest frame seems to show clouds /surrounding LLC to thicken and this could go to town again by this afternoon *if it is not pull'd WNW shortly into NE cuban coastline* next few hours crucial

The hi- res vis loop I'm looking at is currently showing a good deal more westward track than earlier.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[floridasun78]

tailgater doesn't look like it's gonna be spending 5-6 hours over E cuba to me...unless it starts wobblin WNW in next frame..(which it could) ....the gitmo radar is not a good way to track the center if that is what anyone is doing

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html (latest frame seems to show clouds /surrounding LLC to thicken and this could go to town again by this afternoon *if it is not pull'd WNW shortly into NE cuban coastline* next few hours crucial

The hi- res vis loop I'm looking at is currently showing a good deal more westward track than earlier.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

still moving nw not west

[Frank2]

it's a pooling of moisture just east of South Florida - seems like some other disturbance not directly associated with Isaac, as said by the local OCM...

Frank

[meriland23]

tailgater doesn't look like it's gonna be spending 5-6 hours over E cuba to me...unless it starts wobblin WNW in next frame..(which it could) ....the gitmo radar is not a good way to track the center if that is what anyone is doing

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html (latest frame seems to show clouds /surrounding LLC to thicken and this could go to town again by this afternoon *if it is not pull'd WNW shortly into NE cuban coastline* next few hours crucial

The hi- res vis loop I'm looking at is currently showing a good deal more westward track than earlier.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

very short run, hard to tell..

[hurricanefloyd5]

did the center of isaac jog to the north just abit?

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_li ... R&loop=yes

[Frank2]

still moving nw not west

Over the years I've noticied that systems that move NW or NNW from the same general area (Windward Passage) often continue moving northward through the Bahamas and miss the US completely - we'll see what happens - perhaps the troughiness is just enough that'll allow it to do that...

[MiamiensisWx]

tailgater doesn't look like it's gonna be spending 5-6 hours over E cuba to me...unless it starts wobblin WNW in next frame..(which it could) ....the gitmo radar is not a good way to track the center if that is what anyone is doing

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html (latest frame seems to show clouds /surrounding LLC to thicken and this could go to town again by this afternoon *if it is not pull'd WNW shortly into NE cuban coastline* next few hours crucial

The hi- res vis loop I'm looking at is currently showing a good deal more westward track than earlier.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

I believe that is an illusion caused by high-level cloud movement. I still see a basic NW movement near 315°. At this rate the center would pass just about 5 nm (7 mi) off the eastern tip of Cuba.

[tailgater]

tailgater doesn't look like it's gonna be spending 5-6 hours over E cuba to me...unless it starts wobblin WNW in next frame..(which it could) ....the gitmo radar is not a good way to track the center if that is what anyone is doing

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html (latest frame seems to show clouds /surrounding LLC to thicken and this could go to town again by this afternoon *if it is not pull'd WNW shortly into NE cuban coastline* next few hours crucial

The hi- res vis loop I'm looking at is currently showing a good deal more westward track than earlier.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

very short run, hard to tell..

Yes, I guess I just was reacting to folks thinking it was gonna miss Cuba all together.

[floridasun78]

miami weatherman got more worry today because it look like will miss cuba and have more affect in miami less for keys

[meriland23]

still moving nw not west

Over the years I've noticied that systems that move NW or NNW from the same general area (Windward Passage) often continue moving northward through the Bahamas and miss the US completely - we'll see what happens...

yeah, but the steering winds were probably not the same..

[cycloneye]

Here is a topografy map of Cuba. If the center skips those 6,000 foot mountains in the Eastern part,then it will have intensity implications downstream as the rest is almost flat land in the northern part.