ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Jevo
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#3861 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:01 am

12z GFS +84

Image

12z GFS +93 (2nd CONUS Landfall)

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3862 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:02 am

Ivanhater wrote:Ouch
Image

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Look at that white out.. iono, looking at all them isobars, thinking 978 is quite teh underestimate..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3863 Postby frederic79 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:02 am

To my untrained eyes, it looks to be MS/AL line.
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#3864 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:02 am

12z GFS +105 (Inland)

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3865 Postby timmeister » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:03 am

12Z GFS 102 HRS - Landfall Mobile, AL

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#3866 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:03 am

That's def not a Pensacola landfall...more like Jackson county MS.
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Re:

#3867 Postby MJA » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:03 am

deltadog03 wrote:Landfall btwn hr90-96 and STRONG!!! Landfall near Pensacola....



Strong as in Cat 2, 3??
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#3868 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:03 am

Yeah, thats gonna hurt.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3869 Postby Javlin » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:04 am

I have look at a few models today not so much at Isaac but at what is happening N of us and they all show the ridge breaking at some point.The amplification of the trof and differences between the 06Z and 12z of the GFS is negligble to my eyes but has been mentioned the speed is alittle slower of Isaac.If you look at the 06GFS @84 hrs the ridge is broken and Isaac is going in at Ft.walton or there's about but on the 78hr of the 12Z the ridge is holding ever so slightly so that could still be up in the air itself.It appears that the trof may leave Isaac behind if this run verified @ the MS/AL border.
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#3870 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:04 am

this is the difference between gfs the past 6 hrs (in terms of where it hits and the strength)

12z runImage

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06z runImage

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#3871 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:04 am

Crawling inland near Mobile at hour 114
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#3872 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:05 am

Wants to crawl up mobile bay. This looks exactly like Georges in 98...that one dropped over 2 feet of rain near my folks on the al/ms state line


This really just looks more like 0z Euro in that steering collapses at the end game. It's hard to predict landfalls. Looks to me like if it hits east pensacola then it will move cuz there's more steering to pull north. But slightly weaker steering and stronger ridge and you get it drifting in over al/ms
Last edited by PTPatrick on Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3873 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:07 am

Still crawling north over Western AL at hour 120.
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#3874 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:09 am

That's right over Mobile, AL..... Gulf Shores to P'Cola would get hit hard!
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Re: Re:

#3875 Postby USTropics » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:10 am

MJA wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Landfall btwn hr90-96 and STRONG!!! Landfall near Pensacola....



Strong as in Cat 2, 3??


Strong as in Major hurricane Cat 3+. GFS does a terrible job (and for that part all of the models do) at extrapolating pressure. Given the amount of isobars though, this is definitely a major hurricane on this run. GFDL, NAM, and now GFS have a significantly stronger system in the 00z runs.
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#3876 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:10 am

thing that is scary is gfs usually has the intensity much weaker than realistically (aka hurricane status = TS winds on gfs) so them coming out with this.. well I guess it is just plain scary
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#3877 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:11 am

12z GFS +129

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3878 Postby HeeBGBz » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:11 am

:eek: Yikes, that doesn't look good for us. What do the models see that has moved it west and any clue if that will continue to be a trending target?
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Re: Re:

#3879 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:11 am

USTropics wrote:
MJA wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Landfall btwn hr90-96 and STRONG!!! Landfall near Pensacola....



Strong as in Cat 2, 3??


Strong as in Major hurricane Cat 3+. GFS does a terrible job (and for that part all of the models do) at extrapolating pressure. Given the amount of isobars though, this is definitely a major hurricane on this run. GFDL, NAM, and now GFS have a significantly stronger system in the 00z runs.

1.5 hrs for euro.. eek
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3880 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:12 am

In terms of miami dade and broward thus far iam likeing the 12z model trends which are further south into lower keys. Bamd is now an outlier.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots
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