ATL: ISAAC - Models

[deltadog03]

Looks like the 18z BAMs shifted west quite a bit towards Alabama and Mississippi. I don't know why the 12z GFS isn't updated on this map yet though. Does anyone think we'll see an adjustment in track at 5pm from the NHC based off the latest models? IMO they should shift the track a little closer to PNS.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

My **GUESS** is that they won't really do much with it...

[Evil Jeremy]

Model roundup!

Today's 12Z runs:
Canadian - MSY
GEFS mean - MS coast
GFS - MS/AL border
GFDL and UK - Destin
ECMWF - PCB-AQQ

wheres the NOGAPS? MS/AL border....

Does NOGAPS qualify as a "model" lol?

[nashrobertsx]

Thanks Ivan (Michael).
Can you post a short list of the next model runs and what time they come out?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Thanks Ivan (Michael).
Can you post a short list of the next model runs and what time they come out?

NAM: 3:30-4:30
GFS: 5:15-6:00
HWRF/GFDL: Shortly after GFS.

[nashrobertsx]

That's CDT or EDT?
Also, who has the latest spag plots map they can post from all this afternoon's models?
Thx

[southerngale]

That's CDT or EDT?
Also, who has the latest spag plots map they can post from all this afternoon's models?
Thx

EDT

This doesn't have all of the models.

[Blinhart]

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/i ... smodel.gif

according to this the cone should shift to the West by a good 50 to 75 miles, and if this continues for the next couple days, it could end up being near Intercoastal City to Sabine Pass for final landfall.

This is starting to remind me of Rita and Ike.

[Ivanhater]

GFS Ensembles are solidly west this afternoon in agreement with the operational GFS and last nights Euro ensembles and Euro Operational.

Euro Ensembles will be out shortly.



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[Hurricane Andrew]

That's CDT or EDT?
Also, who has the latest spag plots map they can post from all this afternoon's models?
Thx

http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weathe ... urrent.png

[Senobia]

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201209_ensmodel.gif

according to this the cone should shift to the West by a good 50 to 75 miles, and if this continues for the next couple days, it could end up being near Intercoastal City to Sabine Pass for final landfall.

This is starting to remind me of Rita and Ike.

Hush that talk!

The models will trend east....they will. They have to.

[wxman57]

Good model comparison page from Ryan Maue. Trend is a bit farther west with final landfall.

http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weathe ... _mouse.php

[deltadog03]

Good model comparison page from Ryan Maue. Trend is a bit farther west with final landfall.

http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weathe ... _mouse.php

How far are you thinking? I still think around PNS/PCB....What did you think of the Euro today?

[Ivanhater]

The upper level environment depicted by the GFS and Euro in the gulf look downright scary for this system. Ideal.

[ROCK]

ensembles spread out west again....like I said and I could be wrong...the EURO didnt do me any favors....Isaac is ejected NE way north by a zonal short wave in the GFS and NOGAPS, NAM etc....this is ridge driven and if the ridge builds in stronger than advertise then LA is not out of the question....so far though not much support....70% of storms miss right 30% miss left....this might be a 30 percenter...IMO


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[Ixolib]

The upper level environment depicted by the GFS and Euro in the gulf look downright scary for this system. Ideal.

By "scary", do you mean RI scary, Katrina scary, or just general scary?

Apparently there's an anti-cyclone above, and hot water below. Upper and lower all look scary!!!

[WilmingtonSandbar]

[quote="wxman57"]Good model comparison page from Ryan Maue. Trend is a bit farther west with final landfall.

what is that that shoots up to SC?

[pgoss11]

Good model comparison page from Ryan Maue. Trend is a bit farther west with final landfall.

what is that that shoots up to SC?

Do you have link to this run?

[Ivanhater]

The upper level environment depicted by the GFS and Euro in the gulf look downright scary for this system. Ideal.

By "scary", do you mean RI scary, Katrina scary, or just general scary?

Apparently there's an anti-cyclone above, and hot water below. Upper and lower all look scary!!!

Grabbed this from another site, but it shows the environment in the Gulf being ideal...

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Good model comparison page from Ryan Maue. Trend is a bit farther west with final landfall.

what is that that shoots up to SC?

Do you have link to this run?

Sorry it was in Wxman57's original post and i deleted it for some reason.

http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weathe ... _mouse.php

[pgoss11]

Good model comparison page from Ryan Maue. Trend is a bit farther west with final landfall.

what is that that shoots up to SC?

That model is the CLP5 model that goes to SC. Obviously an extreme right outlier