ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

I see that the cone is totally gone in SE Fl yet they are still under ts warnings/watches. Should those not be removed, esp. the warnings?

No..The cone means were the center of circulation might be. Remember a tropical cyclone is not a point its affects can reach out hundreds of mile away form the main llc. In this case Isaac's TS winds extend 205 miles away which will over spread the state so the warnings should stay.

[tolakram]

Latest 21:25Z, 5:25PM EDT

Center visible offshore

[LowndesCoFire]

Interesting reading. 5pm briefing from my local NWS (Tallahassee) regarding potential area-wide impacts.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/tae/briefing/Isaac5.pdf

[sunnyday]

Thank you to those who explained why the ts warnings will need to stay in Se Fl without the cone being there. One more thing I'm confused about is when the worst of the storm should hit SE Fl and when it should be more or less past.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I see that the cone is totally gone in SE Fl yet they are still under ts warnings/watches. Should those not be removed, esp. the warnings?

No. Isaac is a very large storm, and tropical storm force winds extend out 205 miles. Southeast Florida will get tropical storm conditions.

Honest question...the 205 miles is that in one direction (radius) or the whole diameter of the storm?

Mainly to the north of the center.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking at visible satellite loops it almost looks as if the LLC just decoupled from the MLC. The LLC is racing off to the NW....

[caneman]

Interesting. Just heard on the The Weather Channel that a second low developed under Cuba and to the South and West of the primary one that is going to tug it more West. May be why models shifted a little more West. Watching very closely here though.

[LowndesCoFire]

Watches / Warnings now in effect for Big Bend / Panhandle Coast. Showing on local NWS but not on NHC site. Is that usually the call of the NHC or local offices?

[Portastorm]

Thank you to those who explained why the ts warnings will need to stay in Se Fl without the cone being there. One more thing I'm confused about is when the worst of the storm should hit SE Fl and when it should be more or less past.

What is your local NWS forecasting? I believe that is the source you should rely upon.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looking at visible satellite loops it almost looks as if the LLC just decoupled from the MLC. The LLC is racing off to the NW....

Decoupled? I highly doubt it. The center is racing though (21 mph according to the 5pm EDT advisory). Should help it pull away from Cuba and strengthen overnight.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Watches / Warnings now in effect for Big Bend / Panhandle Coast. Showing on local NWS but not on NHC site. Is that usually the call of the NHC or local offices?

Those watches look like they are offshore, not on the coast.

[wxman57]

Interesting. Just heard on the The Weather Channel that a second low developed under Cuba and to the South and West of the primary one that is going to tug it more West. May be why models shifted a little more West. Watching very closely here though.

What you may have heard is that there is an UPPER-LEVEL low south of Cuba that should direct Isaac NW then WNW as forecast.

[Blinhart]

No one has answered my question about what is going to happen IF Isaac eats up the trough that is in front of him.

[SouthDadeFish]

What I would keep an eye on is that feeder banding forming by Jamaica. Perhaps that will lead to a nice convective flare up.

[Frank P]

Looking at visible satellite loops it almost looks as if the LLC just decoupled from the MLC. The LLC is racing off to the NW....

From my unprofessional eyes I don't see that, I do see the center and it appears to be off the coast and moving NW, with some convection starting to build near the center off to the north side.. my opinion only..

[MGC]

The cone is that area of the Earth's surface that the NHC, given its forecast margin of error, that the center of circulation is expected to traverse. If you are in the cone you might get the eye. Just because you are not in the cone don't mean you will not get strong winds or heavy rain. It is very possible to get strong rain and heavy winds and be outside the cone. Isaac is a large tropical cyclone and TS force winds are likely well up the Florida coast well removed from the cone....

I'm hating on the 5pm discussion....seem the NHC has left the door open for a very powerful hurricane anywhere along the north GOM coast.......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

No one has answered my question about what is going to happen IF Isaac eats up the trough that is in front of him.

Eats it up? Tropical cyclones don't "eat" troughs. Troughs have the ability to absorb tropical cyclones and transition them into extratropical ones, but that's about it other than when dealing with steering.

[cheezyWXguy]

Per VDM, it looks like Isaac is offshore....Or atleast darn near close...

He's off I can see the center quite well on zoomed in visible satellite imagery. You can see the low level cloud elements now moving west to east just off the cuban coast.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[SunnyThoughts]

No one has answered my question about what is going to happen IF Isaac eats up the trough that is in front of him.

Read the discussion on the latest advisory...it explains how Isaac will most likely absorb it.

[Blinhart]

No one has answered my question about what is going to happen IF Isaac eats up the trough that is in front of him.

Eats it up? Tropical cyclones don't "eat" troughs. Troughs have the ability to absorb tropical cyclones and transition them into extratropical ones, but that's about it other than when dealing with steering.

That's strange because the TWC stated that what is in front of Isaac should soon be entrained into Isaac, so what do they mean by that???