ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JamesCaneTracker]

Isaac remains unorganized as I see it, but when he enters the GOM, the overall cloud pattern and circulation will take up a very large portion of the Gulf. Isaac has a huge circulation pattern.


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Based on Recon Isaac is surprisingly well organized for just coming off of Haiti and Cuba! Already reported en eye for the first time all though they are now no longer reporting it. Temperatures are looking healthy...

[StormTracker]

Note that Isaac is 375 miles ese of Key West...if he continues on a more or less a NW heading, that would seem to suggest a track that will be east of Key West (or near, since wobbles happen here and there)...or through the lower-middle-upper FL Keys

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 76.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

My thinking as well...a little stronger than predicted/a little more to the east(right)!

[Stephanie]

At this point any northern component brings worse weather for Miami. I'm intrigued that Isaac can still keep on chugging along despite the numerous adversities that he has faced.

It is amazing watching him and so many others that have been ripped to shreds by the mountains in Dominica, Haiti and Cuba and then re-emerge like it was nothing. Isaac just couldn't get that eye wall together, but regardless, the rain and the flooding is still a major problem. Must be that "I" name storm. Tough as nails.

[jlauderdal]

At this point any northern component brings worse weather for Miami. I'm intrigued that Isaac can still keep on chugging along despite the numerous adversities that he has faced.

he did a great job of avoiding the cuba and hispanola shredding machine...trop systems hate land and isaac has really moved through the passage as well as could be expected..stormy times ahead for fla and the northenr gulf coast..winds have steadily increased in fort laud the last few hours

[wjs3]

:uarrow: fujiwara? Isn't that what Ike did?

I don't think so, no.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL092008_Ike_3May10.pdf

[meriland23]

:uarrow: fujiwara? Isn't that what Ike did?

I don't think so, no.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL092008_Ike_3May10.pdf

thought ike had multiple vortices/centers

[thatwhichisnt]

Just stopping in to say thanks for the interesting discussion everyone. Been lurking here watching this storm as I live in SE LA. I am a college aged male who has always been fascinated with weather. Planning to gas up the truck and pick up some spare gas cans tomorrow.

[Portastorm]

Just stopping in to say thanks for the interesting discussion everyone. Been lurking here watching this storm as I live in SE LA. I am a college aged male who has always been fascinated with weather. Planning to gas up the truck and pick up some spare gas cans tomorrow.

Welcome to Storm2K! Good to have you here. Your plan sounds very prudent.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Just stopping in to say thanks for the interesting discussion everyone. Been lurking here watching this storm as I live in SE LA. I am a college aged male who has always been fascinated with weather. Planning to gas up the truck and pick up some spare gas cans tomorrow.

Welcome. Here are a few tips for you.

A few good model resources are these.
http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/

Also, if you haven't already, download the Tropical Atlantic Google Earth Thingy.
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/#taoverlays

[cheezyWXguy]

:uarrow: fujiwara? Isn't that what Ike did?

I don't think so, no.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL092008_Ike_3May10.pdf

thought ike had multiple vortices/centers

Not that I know of. Ike had multiple concentric eyewells if thats what you're referring to. And if youre talking about why Ike dove south toward Cuba in the open atlantic, that was because the ridge built back in to the north and filled in the weakness that was trying to pull Ike into a recurve. As erratic as Ike's track and strength were, I dont think it had anything to do with the fujiwara effect.

[thatwhichisnt]

Just stopping in to say thanks for the interesting discussion everyone. Been lurking here watching this storm as I live in SE LA. I am a college aged male who has always been fascinated with weather. Planning to gas up the truck and pick up some spare gas cans tomorrow.

Welcome. Here are a few tips for you.

A few good model resources are these.
http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/

Also, if you haven't already, download the Tropical Atlantic Google Earth Thingy.
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/#taoverlays

Thanks!

Nice name by the way. My first hurricane.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Just stopping in to say thanks for the interesting discussion everyone. Been lurking here watching this storm as I live in SE LA. I am a college aged male who has always been fascinated with weather. Planning to gas up the truck and pick up some spare gas cans tomorrow.

Welcome. Here are a few tips for you.

A few good model resources are these.
http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/

Also, if you haven't already, download the Tropical Atlantic Google Earth Thingy.
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/#taoverlays

Thanks!

Nice name by the way. My first hurricane.

You go through the K-storm?

[Portastorm]

Hey guys ... let's keep the chatty posts limited to PMs. This thread is for real-time discussion of Isaac. Thanks.

[meriland23]

Not that I know of. Ike had multiple concentric eyewells if thats what you're referring to. And if youre talking about why Ike dove south toward Cuba in the open atlantic, that was because the ridge built back in to the north and filled in the weakness that was trying to pull Ike into a recurve. As erratic as Ike's track and strength were, I dont think it had anything to do with the fujiwara effect.

Iono, a lot of people are comparing based on the sheer size. Ike really never got its act together like it was supposed to.. it was just a inevitable waiting game, this was due to its size and the... multiple concentric eye wells? I guess what I am getting at is, what are the chances of that happening to Isaac IYO.

[thatwhichisnt]

[

You go through the K-storm?

Sure did. I live about 45 minutes away from Nola. I have family who suffered major damage from Rita (they live in LC).

Gustav was the worse for us where I live. Looked like a bomb went off around us. I was at my uncles house by LSU and every other house had a tree on it.

Edit: just saw the post above, sorry. Will keep thread on topic.

[Frank P]

Convection on the north and northeast of Isaac continues to fire off tonight reviewing the IR loops.. motion as far as I can tell still seems NW... no telling what he will do when it gets into the GOM...

[ozonepete]

Just stopping in to say thanks for the interesting discussion everyone. Been lurking here watching this storm as I live in SE LA. I am a college aged male who has always been fascinated with weather. Planning to gas up the truck and pick up some spare gas cans tomorrow.

Welcome!

[Portastorm]

perk, please check your PMs.

[Nimbus]

Note that Isaac is 375 miles ese of Key West...if he continues on a more or less a NW heading, that would seem to suggest a track that will be east of Key West (or near, since wobbles happen here and there)...or through the lower-middle-upper FL Keys

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 76.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

My thinking as well...a little stronger than predicted/a little more to the east(right)!

Off the coast and into hurricane alley with an intact core not the best news for south Floridians.

[cheezyWXguy]

Not that I know of. Ike had multiple concentric eyewells if thats what you're referring to. And if youre talking about why Ike dove south toward Cuba in the open atlantic, that was because the ridge built back in to the north and filled in the weakness that was trying to pull Ike into a recurve. As erratic as Ike's track and strength were, I dont think it had anything to do with the fujiwara effect.

Iono, a lot of people are comparing based on the sheer size. Ike really never got its act together like it was supposed to.. it was just a inevitable waiting game, this was due to its size and the... multiple concentric eye wells? I guess what I am getting at is, what are the chances of that happening to Isaac IYO.

Eyewall replacement cycles are always difficult to predict, but if this does become a major in the gulf, it is a possibility. The reason Ike had concentric eyewalls at landfall was because it was unable to complete the eyewall replacement process. This is probably because Ike was a relatively small storm when it hit Cuba and suffered significant inner core disruption while crossing land. This caused the storm to expand dramatically and even though Ike did restrengthen in the gulf, it was never able to re-establish a tight inner core. Therefore, Ike was never able to completely finish the cycle and ended up landfalling as "only a category 2" with 2, possibly 3 concentric eyewalls.