ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Hi everyone! I've lurked here for a while, joined today! I am from Louisiana, just outside of New Orleans. I see some of the spaghetti models shifted back over to us! I hope on the next run this changes!

Nice to "meet" everyone!

Welcome. Hope Isaac stays away from you guys as well.

[Aric Dunn]

hmm thats a some very interesting convection developing around the center. tomorrow maybe a little more than people in the keys were expecting.

[MiamiensisWx]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based upon the latest 00Z surface data below, the streamlined surface analysis indicates the center is at least 50 nm (60 mi) north of the Cuban coast, and with the strengthening convection, that LLC should become the dominant one and might shift even further north in the next several hours before turning back to the WNW.

00Z surface data

[jinftl]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
841 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
BROWARD COUNTY...EASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...FOR GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO
55 MPH...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 839 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES EAST
OF PORT EVERGLADES TO 6 MILES EAST OF NORTH BAY VILLAGE TO 4 MILES
SOUTH OF MIAMI BEACH TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF KEY BISCAYNE TO 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF OCEAN REEF...AND MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
KEY BISCAYNE...
MIAMI BEACH...
MIAMI...
BAY HARBOR ISLANDS...
ALLAPATTAH...
AVENTURA...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES

From radar loop link, we have some small bands spiraling into south florida now

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0

They're just weak showers with a light breeze.

[GCANE]

Small hot tower firing over Gitmo and moving north.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... essed=Full

Could be close enough to the LLC to heat the core.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 260015.jpg

[sphelps8681]

With the storm as big as they are expecting or thinking it will be at landfall how far out are the hurricane force winds/tropical storm winds going to be.

[Hurricane Alexis]

hmm thats a some very interesting convection developing around the center. tomorrow maybe a little more than people in the keys were expecting.

Will impacts in the miami area will be the same even if it's a bit stronger than expected?

[StarmanHDB]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Latest satellite data show significant convection developing over the LLC due to the diurnal maximum...as winds were 50 kt/60 mph just a few hours ago, I see no reason as to why, with the center solidly north of Cuba, Isaac won’t reach at least 60 kt/70 mph as forecasted by the NHC by the time it strikes the middle Keys late tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html

To my untrained eye, I too see that diurnal convection is clearly doing its thing around the northern and southeast sectors of an LLC while the storm has BARELY cleared the Cuban coast! I have a feeling that Isaac is going to gain hurricane status very quickly! My question is how will this affect its current forecast track in regards to its initial Florida landfall?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jlauderdal]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
841 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
BROWARD COUNTY...EASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...FOR GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO
55 MPH...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 839 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES EAST
OF PORT EVERGLADES TO 6 MILES EAST OF NORTH BAY VILLAGE TO 4 MILES
SOUTH OF MIAMI BEACH TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF KEY BISCAYNE TO 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF OCEAN REEF...AND MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
KEY BISCAYNE...
MIAMI BEACH...
MIAMI...
BAY HARBOR ISLANDS...
ALLAPATTAH...
AVENTURA...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES

From radar loop link, we have some small bands spiraling into south florida now

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0

They're just weak showers with a light breeze.

last 4 hours the easterly flow has definitely been increasing in fort lauderdale

[SFLcane]

hmm thats a some very interesting convection developing around the center. tomorrow maybe a little more than people in the keys were expecting.

Will impacts in the miami area will be the same even if it's a bit stronger than expected?

How was that squall that just came through? Horizontal rains hitting windows in living room.

[ozonepete]

hmm thats a some very interesting convection developing around the center. tomorrow maybe a little more than people in the keys were expecting.

Will impacts in the miami area will be the same even if it's a bit stronger than expected?

The stronger it gets (compared to what's expected now) the worse your impacts will be. Not trying to alarm you at all; that's just a fact. Just keep following it and adjust your plans as the storm changes. That's the best you can do. We will keep you up to date here and point you to the right places for any more info that you need.

[Hurricane Alexis]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
841 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
BROWARD COUNTY...EASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...FOR GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO
55 MPH...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 839 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES EAST
OF PORT EVERGLADES TO 6 MILES EAST OF NORTH BAY VILLAGE TO 4 MILES
SOUTH OF MIAMI BEACH TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF KEY BISCAYNE TO 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF OCEAN REEF...AND MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
KEY BISCAYNE...
MIAMI BEACH...
MIAMI...
BAY HARBOR ISLANDS...
ALLAPATTAH...
AVENTURA...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES



They're just weak showers with a light breeze.

Well in my neighborhood it was weak.

[tolakram]

Don't forget we have a preparations, observations, and impact thread: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113468

Also, if you want to chat, checkout the storm2k chat room: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111692

[otowntiger]

hmm thats a some very interesting convection developing around the center. tomorrow maybe a little more than people in the keys were expecting.

Will impacts in the miami area will be the same even if it's a bit stronger than expected?

Also, can someone post a graphic that depicts the current center location in juxtaposition to the latest NHC forecast track? Is it close, right on or off a ways?

[ozonepete]

hmm thats a some very interesting convection developing around the center. tomorrow maybe a little more than people in the keys were expecting.

As long as that still incredible outflow keeps up convection will continue to build. the last piece is the symmetry. When it gets that back, watch out!

[meriland23]

so NHC said that "A COMBINATION OF LIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD AT LEAST LOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HR."

and this looks very disorganized, IMO, not so sure it will in fact be a H by the keys like they had said before

[tolakram]

hmm thats a some very interesting convection developing around the center. tomorrow maybe a little more than people in the keys were expecting.

Will impacts in the miami area will be the same even if it's a bit stronger than expected?

Also, can someone post a graphic that depicts the current center location in juxtaposition to the latest NHC forecast track? Is it close, right on or off a ways?

Check out the loops provided, and check the forecast track box at the top.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

Flash Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[MiamiensisWx]

so NHC said that "A COMBINATION OF LIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD AT LEAST LOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HR."

and this looks very disorganized, IMO, not so sure it will in fact be a H by the keys like they had said before

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Reconnaissance supported 60 mph just several hours ago when there was almost no convection over the LLC. Based upon current trends, the system is likely to increase further to 65 mph (55 kt) by 0300Z tonight.

[cheezyWXguy]

well it doesnt look great yet, thats for sure, but this has gotta be the deepest the convection has ever been directly over its center. Weve seen this storm approach hurricane strength as practically a naked swirl, there's really no telling what may become in such an ideal environment now that has a definite center with deep convection.

[TwisterFanatic]

Nice blowup of thunderstorms going on right now.