ATL: ISAAC - Models

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HurrMark
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4361 Postby HurrMark » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:58 pm

Sabanic wrote:Wonder where it goes from here on this run?

HurrMark wrote:81 hours, nearing the coast around central LA. Probably not landfall yet.


Still offshore at 90 hours, moving due west, heading for Sabine Pass. Still looks like a little ridging to the north.
Last edited by HurrMark on Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#4362 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:58 pm

Uh rock...getting mighty close to texas
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#4363 Postby smw1981 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:59 pm

deltadog03 wrote:HMMMMM


Haha..deltadog, what do you make of all this? I respect and have confidence in your guidance, and would love to know your opinion!
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#4364 Postby SeminoleWind » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:59 pm

I have no reason to doubt the validity of the latest GFS run, but WOW kinda radical shift there.
Well we will see if the EURO agrees.
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#4365 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:59 pm

0z GFS +90

Image
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#4366 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:59 pm

GFS then skirts it west along the LA coast heading over to the TX border...lol it's so weird the GFS is now showing what the Euro was days ago and the euro vice versa.
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Re:

#4367 Postby bayoubebe » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:00 pm

deltadog03 wrote:HMMMMM


When a pro met says "HMMM" you MUST explain....Please?!? :eek:
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#4368 Postby PrettyCreole » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:01 pm

Ok, so I see the track but what about the strength. I'm sitting here in my Brad Pitt house in the lower 9 of new Orleans wondering should I be making preparations or does the model only show a strong cat 1 or weak cat 2 which the levees can handle. Can somebody please let me know how strong this storm may get?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4369 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:01 pm

Grand Isle and Port Fourchon would be under water if this comes true. Not good at all.
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#4370 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:01 pm

Wow, could timing ever be more important? A very very small unexpected slow down could have it head West well off shore. Or a slight speed up means landfall and well inland before going West. I tend to doubt this due West movement after landfall for such a long time but let's see what the other models say.
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Re: Re:

#4371 Postby thetruesms » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:02 pm

Ixolib wrote:
Jevo wrote:....But I can't help but find myself reading your posts in the voice of the Character that Phillip Seymour Hoffman played in Twister.. I smile everytime I catch myself doing it.
:lol: Now you made me smile too. But, agreeably, his info is great stuff and much appreciated!!
It's probably better to hear it in his voice - I grew up in Wisconsin, my real voice is kind of nasally.

Now I want to stay up for the Euro . . . but I also have to wake up and go back in at 4:30 am :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4372 Postby perk » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:02 pm

That ridge over Texas is eroding.
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#4373 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:02 pm

So it looks like 2nd CONUS Landfall is shown in SE LA..

@ 0z GFS +69

Image

Then the storm just drags across the coast of LA for another 30 hours

0z GFS +102

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4374 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:02 pm

Per Dr. Rick Knabb: NOAA G-IV jet takes off in about 90 mins
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Re: Re:

#4375 Postby Ixolib » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:03 pm

thetruesms wrote:...Now I want to stay up for the Euro . . . but I also have to wake up and go back in at 4:30 am :lol:
Might as well just stay up and make a night of it!!
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#4376 Postby HurrMark » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:03 pm

Looks like landfall is finally made at 102 hrs near Lake Charles...
Last edited by HurrMark on Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4377 Postby Blinhart » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:04 pm

Isn't there G-IV data from earlier today in these models that are being run right now?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4378 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:04 pm

Didnt a couple runs of the euro show this exact same scenario a few days ago before it decided to flip way east?
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#4379 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:04 pm

That GFS run kinda reminds me of Juan but more powerful.
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Re:

#4380 Postby Blinhart » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:05 pm

HurrMark wrote:Looks like landfall is finally made at 102 hrs near Lake Charles...


Which would make it Vermillion Bay which is about 20 miles due South of Lafayette, or Sabine Pass which is about 30 miles due South of Lake Charles.
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