ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Mosaic through 4AM EDT, saved:

[TwisterFanatic]

It's almost like the center is tracing Cuba.

[Solaris]

Recon dropsonde 995 mb...also SFMR measured 59 kts!

Though sat / radar presentation is very poor at the moment, the circulation is still alive....

Wait for the sun to come up and let it move a little further away from Cuba, the you will see it 'go'

Also keep in mind, convection at the northern side has been strong all long the past hours so that will get pretty nasty for S. FL and the Keys

[Airboy]

center is hugging the coast....dont see much deviation from this track until passed the keys.......it amazing to have the models shift so much in a small amount of time. I expect more westward shifts.....

Looks like it follows the left/west boundary of the cone, taking a "long" left turn before going north. More west and more time over water maybe.

[Solaris]

URNT12 KNHC 260813
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092012
A. 26/07:33:40Z
B. 22 deg 54 min N
078 deg 39 min W
C. 850 mb 1391 m
D. 43 kt
E. 061 deg 73 nm
F. 128 deg 69 kt
G. 065 deg 81 nm
H. 995 mb
I. 19 C / 1520 m
J. 20 C / 1520 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
P. AF301 1809A ISAAC OB 11
MAX FL WIND 69 KT NE QUAD 07:07:30Z
;

[Dydion]

the west shifts are not over..IMO

So you think the models are going to shift past LA, or to Lake Charles, LA? Texas? What is your opinion, Rock?

[ROCK]

the west shifts are not over..IMO

So you think the models are going to shift past LA, or to Lake Charles, LA? Texas? What is your opinion, Rock?

right now....SW LA needs to be on guard to face a major hurricane in 3 days...Not thinking Texas west but if these keep shifting then it not out of the realm of possibility.....

jmo.....add disclaimer from somewhere.

[MJS1]

Sporadic...i don't think the expectation is for widespread Wilma-like outages that effected 6 million.... as a fan of a/c, not disappointed if i don't lose power!

[/quote]

FPL has always been re-active to storms,not pro-active...If 12 hours or so away from the worst Miami is going to get weather-wise there are wind gusts of approx 60 mph, I don't expect to see 3/4 of this forum's SFl opiners tomorrow, or the day after for that matter...I sincerely hope that my "losing streak" continues...I remember Wilma's misery quite well..I lived there.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Sporadic...i don't think the expectation is for widespread Wilma-like outages that effected 6 million.... as a fan of a/c, not disappointed if i don't lose power!

FPL has always been re-active to storms,not pro-active...If 12 hours or so away from the worst Miami is going to get weather-wise there are wind gusts of approx 60 mph, I don't expect to see 3/4 of this forum's SFl opiners tomorrow, or the day after for that matter...I sincerely hope that my "losing streak" continues...I remember Wilma's misery quite well..I lived there.[/quote]

Im thinking that 60mph gusts shouldn't knock out the power though.

[Bocadude85]

winds gusting well over 50mph and transformers lighting up the sky to my east

[TwisterFanatic]

Up to 65MPH at 5AM advisory. Cone shift left also.

[senorpepr]

The new track removes hurricane-force winds from the Keys, but the Hurricane Warning remains in effect.

[Hurricane Alexis]

winds gusting well over 50mph and transformers lighting up the sky to my east

That's weird in my neighborhood the trees are still.

[Janie2006]

Very important to post this bit from NHC's discussion:

CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE
LOW...AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ISAAC
WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

Question o' the day: Does Isaac get picked up by the shortwave trough or not? We'll see.

[Frank P]

Is that track from the NHC? If not, then from whom? thanks
I found it from the NHC.. thanks

[Hurricane Alexis]

I think the hurricane watch should be cancelled for miami.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Looks like Hurricane watches issued now for northern gulf coast, including NOLA region per the 5 am advisory

[jlauderdal]

winds gusting well over 50mph and transformers lighting up the sky to my east

no transformers going here but as expected the wind is steady out of the east about 20 and palm fronds are coming down in the gusts

[WeatherGuesser]

If the new 5 day track holds, the Ohio valley could be in for some much needed rain. As long as we don't get the winds like Ike brought.

[jlauderdal]

I think the hurricane watch should be cancelled for miami.

they get alot of leeway(An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are POSSIBLE within the specified area.....http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#h) with a watch and just in case it would strengthen(remember intensity forecasting is mysterious) and hurricane force winds to roll in then they would be covered, no reason to take them down now