ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[amawea]

Experiencing lots of lightning with this feeder band moving through Broward right now...winds gusting to 59 mph per tv news. Is thunder and lightning common in tropical systems? I didn't think it was.

I have seen lightning many times with tropical systems......usually only with depressions and storms however. Not usually with hurricanes unless only the distant outer bands.

There was quite a bit of lightning in Baytown when Alicia came through. It was a greenish color.

[Hammy]

I believe the navy one is based on the current windfield and not the centerpoint (also this isnt letting me quote--its putting the whole page in the comment section instead of letting me comment when hit the quote button....

Also this is a very pathetic looking 65mph storm, and based on Recon its probably weaker than that, probably 50-60 mph, and on satellite and radar looks sheared from the west still. Not that I want to see intensification to where the models are going, I'm not seeing it happening, based on whats out there.

-personal opinion and not official forecast-

[Sanibel]

This is the worst possible track for unwanted intensification and Isaac appears to be reacting. Wait 6 hours and watch what happens after Isaac transfers that Gulf Stream energy into structure. Gusty here. No rain.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[WeatherGuesser]

From what I'm seeing on Key West radar, it's possible the center could miss the tip of the keys.

[midnight8]

For anyone with shortwave or ham radio capability, they just activated the Hurricane Watch Net. http://www.hwn.org/ . Frequency is currently 14.325 upper side band.

Is the SATERN net operational on 14.265 yet or not? Just checking.

Have not checked to see about that one. Sorry

[wxman57]

Experiencing lots of lightning with this feeder band moving through Broward right now...winds gusting to 59 mph per tv news. Is thunder and lightning common in tropical systems? I didn't think it was.

I have seen lightning many times with tropical systems......usually only with depressions and storms however. Not usually with hurricanes unless only the distant outer bands.

There was quite a bit of lightning in Baytown when Alicia came through. It was a greenish color.

I believe that greenish color was transformers blowing, not lightning.

[jinftl]

What a difference a week makes - last Sunday, folks were cursing the invest that would become Isaac as being another non-event in another dud season that fizzled out...since then, we have had a strong t.s. move over a country with 400,000 people living in tents from an earthquake 2 years ago, bring t.s. conditions to millions in Florida and the Keys, cause the Republican Convention to get postponed, and now has the Big Easy under a hurricane watch and feeling more uneasy than easy. Nuff said. Back to Isaac

[Dave]

For anyone with shortwave or ham radio capability, they just activated the Hurricane Watch Net. http://www.hwn.org/ . Frequency is currently 14.325 upper side band.

Is the SATERN net operational on 14.265 yet or not? Just checking.

Have not checked to see about that one. Sorry

No problem, I'll check when I get off recon. AI9D - Indiana

[Aric Dunn]

it just cant seem to pull it together.

[Jagno]

Poster in chat said Louisiana just declared a State of Emergency.

[ConvergenceZone]

Did anyone else hear on the tropical update on TWC that the hurricane hunters were having a hard time finding winds to even justify a 65 MPH storm? It was the guy from the NHC that said it, not Brian Norcross. Anyways, I was a bit shocked by that, but perhaps it's still because of the dry air being entrained from the south? He also said that it's doubtful that it will be a hurricane until it gets past the keys...

Remember though, even if it doesn't go hurricane until 10 to 12 hours that it's still right on target for the NHC Cat 2 prediction....

[Time_Zone]

Isaac still has to overcome a large amount of dry air that has become inseparably integrated with its circulation. One can see the center is of banded nature with an "S" shape, not a CDO, indicative of dry air entrainment. The only way this can be overcome is for the storm to perform lots of convective mixing to re-saturate the air inside it. It will accomplish that eventually, but it is large, and it will take a little while yet. Rapid strengthening is not likely until it is out in the open water of the gulf.

[Riptide]

it just cant seem to pull it together.

Care to elaborate a bit? Satellite trends indicate it has entered a period of steady intensification, pressure falls have been slow to respond it seems.

[JTE50]

it just cant seem to pull it together.

Maybe after it passes Key West it will develop a core but I think dry air is the problem

[Aric Dunn]

it just cant seem to pull it together.

Care to elaborate a bit? Satellite trends indicate it has entered a period of steady intensification, pressure falls have been slow to respond it seems.

no inner core development no banding. convection for the most part is not near the center.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

There's a spinning upper level feature now over the Yucatan that seems to be stopping the SW quadrant of the storm from fully wrapping into the circulation. I would guess that would not be a factor as Issac gets further north.

[pgoss11]

There's still a lot of warm water for Isaac to travel through, but he has never really been able to beat that dry air. That might be it's ultimate downfall.
Not an official forecast

[cheezyWXguy]

it just cant seem to pull it together.

Care to elaborate a bit? Satellite trends indicate it has entered a period of steady intensification, pressure falls have been slow to respond it seems.

no inner core development no banding. convection for the most part is not near the center.

Its true, but I guess thats what happens when its largest inflow channel is pulling in dry air from Cuba...

[Riptide]

it just cant seem to pull it together.

Care to elaborate a bit? Satellite trends indicate it has entered a period of steady intensification, pressure falls have been slow to respond it seems.

no inner core development no banding. convection for the most part is not near the center.

These developments don't happen quickly, still looks to be a huge threat for a major hurricane landfall. Infact, if it already had an inner-core; i'd be worried by eyewall replacement cycles near landfall and a much stronger initial intensity.

[Aric Dunn]

recon showing taking a jog to the nw and radar is showing the center possibly being pulled to the convection to its north. getting very close the key west right now.