ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NOAGUY504]

I can't believe the local mets on the radio here in New Orleans (WWL). They just said that there was "uncertainty" with the models with some going to Florida and some going over us. WTF???

What uncertainty??



95% of the models going over LA. Where are they getting this made up "split" in the models with some taking it to LA and the rest taking it to the Florida panhandle. And this was a LIVE update on the radio just 15 minutes ago.

The people I am talking to are complacent because of the local news. I've talked to neighbors and friends who have said "they saying it still might go to florida" etc.. How can it go to florida when no models have been taking it to florida???

I just never understand the local weather mets and media. I know they don't want to panic people but it was the same thing for Katrina, 3 days before Katrina made landfall ALL of the local mets said " not a concern for us, NOT coming close to us" so people let their guards down. Now they are doing it again. They going to wait till later tonight or tomorrow morning to sound the alarm and say " now it's coming this way" and its not going to give people enough time to prepare.

/rant

[Hurricane Alexis]

Very strong band moving in towards miami.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah Im sure it will eventually. for it to feel the weakness it would have to deeper up the 500 mb level and we would see a more nnw motion being its still relativity shallow its may pass the weakens which is what the models are seeing. but if it deepens soon things may change.

[SunnyThoughts]

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BYX Can see the circulation very well on radar out of key west. Just click on animation.

[Senobia]

I can't believe the local mets on the radio here in New Orleans (WWL). They just said that there was "uncertainty" with the models with some going to Florida and some going over us. WTF???

What uncertainty??

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_09

95% of the models going over LA. Where are they getting this made up "split" in the models with some taking it to LA and the rest taking it to the Florida panhandle. And this was a LIVE update on the radio just 15 minutes ago.

The people I am talking to are complacent because of the local news. I've talked to neighbors and friends who have said "they saying it still might go to florida" etc.. How can it go to florida when no models have been taking it to florida???

I just never understand the local weather mets and media. I know they don't want to panic people but it was the same thing for Katrina, 3 days before Katrina made landfall ALL of the local mets said " not a concern for us, NOT coming close to us" so people let their guards down. Now they are doing it again. They going to wait till later tonight or tomorrow morning to sound the alarm and say " now it's coming this way" and its not going to give people enough time to prepare.

/rant

Just goes to show you can't wait on the powers to be to make those judgement calls for you. If you think you are in harm's way and need to leave - no reason to wait around for anyone else, if you have to means.

[otowntiger]

it just cant seem to pull it together.

That has been the story with this storm, which is exactly why I'll be completely shocked if it gets close to the forecast intensity even in the middle of the gulf. For some reason it's been held in check its whole life and just because it will enter the almighty gulf doesn't mean anything will change when it gets there. Just my opinion of course.

Disclaimer: I don't know what I'm talking about.

[jinftl]

Yep...crazy to be seeing repeated squalls in Broward and Palm Beach with gusts over 60 mph (started at 7am today, still more of that intensity rotating in this p.m.)...200+ miles from the center. Port Everglades (Fort Lauderdale) just reported sustained winds of 45 mph and a gust to 61.

I don't see how such a huge system with a huge circulation is going to undergo RI...remember how Ike had trouble going past Cat 2 in the Gulf even though the pressure was lower than a 2 because of his huge size? This could happen with Isaac - a very large windfield for a Cat 1 or 2 at most at landfall.

it just cant seem to pull it together.

Care to elaborate a bit? Satellite trends indicate it has entered a period of steady intensification, pressure falls have been slow to respond it seems.

no inner core development no banding. convection for the most part is not near the center.

[Portastorm]

yeah Im sure it will eventually. for it to feel the weakness it would have to deeper up the 500 mb level and we would see a more nnw motion being its still relativity shallow its may pass the weakens which is what the models are seeing. but if it deepens soon things may change.

That is exactly what I'm thinking ... the longer Isaac struggles to stack himself vertically, the more apt he is to move less poleward. However, if he ends up getting it together quickly this afternoon and evening ... it wouldn't surprise me to see the modeling switch back east again.

[NOAGUY504]

Poster in chat said Louisiana just declared a State of Emergency.

just plaquemines parish, they do that just about any time a storm enters the gulf.

[Tyler Penland]

95% of the models going over LA. Where are they getting this made up "split" in the models with some taking it to LA and the rest taking it to the Florida panhandle. And this was a LIVE update on the radio just 15 minutes ago.

95% of the models are also based of the GFS.

From another met: "The late tracks (HWRF, GFDL) are based on the run of the same time period (12Z GFS synoptics into 12Z HWRF, etc)... and the BAMS etc use the GFS run before (18Z BAMD/BAMM/BAMS with 12Z GFS synoptics). Almost 100% of the time, if the GFS goes west... so will over 95% of the pasta plots."

[jhpigott]

Could be wrong, but I think this is the strongest gust I've seen reported here in FL so far -

NWSMiami A wind gust of 64 mph was recorded at Port Everglades at 12:10 this afternoon 4 minutes ago · reply · retweet · favorite

[ronjon]

I can't believe the local mets on the radio here in New Orleans (WWL). They just said that there was "uncertainty" with the models with some going to Florida and some going over us. WTF???

What uncertainty??

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_09

95% of the models going over LA. Where are they getting this made up "split" in the models with some taking it to LA and the rest taking it to the Florida panhandle. And this was a LIVE update on the radio just 15 minutes ago.

The people I am talking to are complacent because of the local news. I've talked to neighbors and friends who have said "they saying it still might go to florida" etc.. How can it go to florida when no models have been taking it to florida???

I just never understand the local weather mets and media. I know they don't want to panic people but it was the same thing for Katrina, 3 days before Katrina made landfall ALL of the local mets said " not a concern for us, NOT coming close to us" so people let their guards down. Now they are doing it again. They going to wait till later tonight or tomorrow morning to sound the alarm and say " now it's coming this way" and its not going to give people enough time to prepare.

/rant

Just goes to show you can't wait on the powers to be to make those judgement calls for you. If you think you are in harm's way and need to leave - no reason to wait around for anyone else, if you have to means.

In some fairness, they may be talking about the Euro and UKMET which only one is shown on that plot. Both of the 00z runs showed a western panhandle hit. This was also talked about in the 11 am NHC disc.

[otowntiger]

it just cant seem to pull it together.

Maybe after it passes Key West it will develop a core but I think dry air is the problem

and It could be all the way to it's final landfall. Who knows at this point?

[psyclone]

those along the gulf coast should take solace in the fact that this storm has never really been able to get its act together. it has always been a large, loose circulation with some of the worst weather well removed from the center. even now there is a mega band dumping on Cuba well away from the center. we saw the same thing yesterday with big bands dumping on hispaniola after the center had moved well to the west. of course this could change but so far it hasn't. having said all of that, i would still prepare if i was in the gulf coast strike zone. maybe it will get its act together...and even if it doesn't that large windfield could really stack up the water in the usual trouble spots like Mississippi and se Louisiana.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ConvergenceZone]

There's still a lot of warm water for Isaac to travel through, but he has never really been able to beat that dry air. That might be it's ultimate downfall.
Not an official forecast

That's the thing about intensity forecasts. They are so difficult to predict, as it depends on so many factors. This can either end up being a Major Cat 3 storm that slams into the gulf coast, or just a tropical storm that never was able to get it's act together. I think we've all seen both as we look back in our database of storms......I don't think anyone can say for sure which of the 2 outcomes it will be......

[Aric Dunn]

yeah recon finding the center has taken a good jump the nw. likely being pulled up to the convection .

[Riptide]

NWS Key West radar showing the center becoming tighter and wrapped in convection.

[Senobia]

Update from local mets in SETX (Beaumont area):

Synopsis......Isaac is now moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and should become a hurricane late today or tonight as it continues to move to the west-northwest about 18 mph.

A track generally toward the Louisiana coastline around New Orleans is expected with landfall near Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi Wednesday evening. Some computer models then take Isaac more westerly with some risk that the storm could move into East Texas Friday. Obviously, a more westerly track will bring us much more of an impact Thursday and Friday with gusty winds and locally heavy rains. By the way, there is the chance that Isaac could become a CAT2 or CAT3 at landfall Wednesday night.

This is a difficult forecast and we will have another update late this afternoon.

http://kfdm.com/weather/

[wxwatcher1999]

yeah recon finding the center has taken a good jump the nw. likely being pulled up to the convection .

i see where they are saying they found something south of where the NHC has it??

[JSDS]

Aric, what effect will that have on the track?