ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
crimi481
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 602
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:47 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5701 Postby crimi481 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:19 am

Dueling Lows..the Norm in Gulf it seems. But I believe there have been 2 Low centers within that large center thingy
Think hey fight until too tired -then join. It takes lot fuel ( moisture in feeding) to keep 2 engines humming together
If slows and 2 Lows get in goove together - Storm could Be Huge!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-bd.html

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re:

#5702 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:21 am

deltadog03 wrote:WOW!! Recon just punched the center.....The LLC Looks like its gotten sucked into the MLC NE....Short term for the models for get about it!!!!


This may cause it to go much farther east than forecast, I wouldn't let your guard down from texas to New Orleans, but the relocation of the center could make this a Florida Panhandle landfall

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   

BlueIce
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 194
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Sep 01, 2008 10:05 pm
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5703 Postby BlueIce » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:22 am

WxGuy1 wrote:
BlueIce wrote:The newest RBTOP product seems to show what everyone has been hinting at for the last couple of


Just for the record, is RBTOP really a new product? The image says IR Ch. 4, which is the traditional longwave IR channel (wavelength of 10.7 micrometers). Unless I'm mistaken, the "RBTOP" is really just an image of the same longwave infrared channel but with a different color-table. On the satellite floater page, there are several different color-tables available. So, the actual data are the exact same as those shown using the AVN color-table, for example, but the colors associated with the data are different. The color table may or may not make a particular feature easier to see... In this case, I think it does make it easier to see, largely because it has many more colors than most of the other IR color-scales (note how the transition from one shade of a color to another is very smooth using the RBTOP color-table). :-)


By newest I meant current as of 04:45 GMT. But yes RBTOP is handy to see the highest cold cloud tops by the darker shading.
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#5704 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:22 am

And there you have it...a center relocation, in stunning time. Ugh this storm gives me a headache.
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.

fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

#5705 Postby fasterdisaster » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:23 am

How far away and in what direction is the new center from the old one?
Last edited by fasterdisaster on Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

#5706 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:23 am

So is this confirmed now...is the actual center really in the middle of the convection...all stacked and everything?
0 likes   

User avatar
WxGuy1
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 538
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:55 pm
Location: Oklahoma

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5707 Postby WxGuy1 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:23 am

BlueIce wrote:
WxGuy1 wrote:
BlueIce wrote:The newest RBTOP product seems to show what everyone has been hinting at for the last couple of


Just for the record, is RBTOP really a new product? The image says IR Ch. 4, which is the traditional longwave IR channel (wavelength of 10.7 micrometers). Unless I'm mistaken, the "RBTOP" is really just an image of the same longwave infrared channel but with a different color-table. On the satellite floater page, there are several different color-tables available. So, the actual data are the exact same as those shown using the AVN color-table, for example, but the colors associated with the data are different. The color table may or may not make a particular feature easier to see... In this case, I think it does make it easier to see, largely because it has many more colors than most of the other IR color-scales (note how the transition from one shade of a color to another is very smooth using the RBTOP color-table). :-)


By newest I meant current as of 04:45 GMT. But yes RBTOP is handy to see the highest cold cloud tops by the darker shading.


Aaaah. I misunderstood. Carry on, then! :-) This is a strange storm. I'm not sure I've seen a cyclone this mature (in terms of how long it's been a tropical storm) continue with what apparently looks like multiple low-level centers. If the true center discretely jumps northwestward from the previously-tracked center, then this very well could have appreciable implications for landfall location.
Last edited by WxGuy1 on Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
SEASON_CANCELED
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 887
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:17 am
Location: 8 Bit Charlie Sheen

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5708 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:24 am

Now
it
Gets
Fun...this will effect forecast
0 likes   
i am a big stupid ugly moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt stinks and i like to kiss my own butt

ncweatherwizard
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1243
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 9:45 am
Location: Ft. Collins, CO

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5709 Postby ncweatherwizard » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:24 am

Meteorcane wrote:Quick question how do the Wisconsin charts measure Vorticity. I know that when given wind components and horizontal spacing Vorticity is dv/dx - du/dy, my question is how do they get there wind components to plug into that equation? Remote measurements, surface measurements, UA measurements, interpolation? I ask because I want to know just how accurate these charts are for vorticity (especially UL vorticity)


I actually don't know. I generally look at model analysis anyway if I'm interested in taking a quick look at vorticity fields. For that matter, the vorticity on those CIMSS charts might be based on a particular model analysis.
0 likes   

crimi481
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 602
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:47 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5710 Postby crimi481 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:25 am

Losing its arms and legs..A big round thingy rolls to Big Easy? Or loops arpoun Gulf. BIZARRE Storm indeed
0 likes   

User avatar
Meteorcane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 559
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
Location: North Platte Nebraska

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5711 Postby Meteorcane » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:26 am

ncweatherwizard wrote:
Meteorcane wrote:Quick question how do the Wisconsin charts measure Vorticity. I know that when given wind components and horizontal spacing Vorticity is dv/dx - du/dy, my question is how do they get there wind components to plug into that equation? Remote measurements, surface measurements, UA measurements, interpolation? I ask because I want to know just how accurate these charts are for vorticity (especially UL vorticity)


I actually don't know. I generally look at model analysis anyway if I'm interested in taking a quick look at vorticity fields. For that matter, the vorticity on those CIMSS charts might be based on a particular model analysis.



Ah yes that would make sense, and I have at least a rudimentary understanding of how models determine initial parameter values.
Last edited by Meteorcane on Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#5712 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:27 am

Yeah go figure.. i was just saying a few min ago that I was not sure why it had not reformed or got pulled up there yet.. guess I spoke to soon !
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

#5713 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:28 am

According to the wundermap on wundergound that allows you to superimpose the cone on the satellite...if center is where it looks it's currently outside the north edge of the cone.



Still defer to mets...would this effect track? My thought are it could put it further nortn quicker perhaps allowing it to feel the weakness more than gfs sees.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
WxEnthus
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 261
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:33 am
Location: Eastern U.S.

Re:

#5714 Postby WxEnthus » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:28 am

deltadog03 wrote:WOW!! Recon just punched the center.....The LLC Looks like its gotten sucked into the MLC NE....Short term for the models for get about it!!!!


I saw recon making that turn and head north once it was obvious there was no windshift along the previous coc track. I was wondering what they'd find further NW!

Do we have a VDM yet?

Edited to correct direction.
Last edited by WxEnthus on Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
    Disclaimer: Posts herein are my amateur opinion only and should not be used for making important decisions. Defer to the NHC, NWS, and local authorities for official guidance.

User avatar
TwisterFanatic
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1041
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma

#5715 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:28 am

Don't think it's actually that much farther north of the original center.

I maybe wrong though.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: Re:

#5716 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:30 am

WxEnthus wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:WOW!! Recon just punched the center.....The LLC Looks like its gotten sucked into the MLC NE....Short term for the models for get about it!!!!


I saw recon making that turn and head north once it was obvious there was no windshift along the previous coc track. I was wondering what they'd find further NE!

Do we have a VDM yet?


Its possible that recon has been following an eddy for the last couple of hours

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re:

#5717 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:30 am

TwisterFanatic wrote:Don't think it's actually that much farther north of the original center.

I maybe wrong though.


It's a LOT further NW of the old center...by about 60-70 miles. It's a short term motion of about 30 mph. The LLC just got sucked up...
0 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3391
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

#5718 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:31 am

According to my google map ruler it is approximately 60 miles NW of the last reported center.
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

#5719 Postby fasterdisaster » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:32 am

Would a landfall in AL/FL panhandle mean less or more time over water than a landfall around NOLA? I'm guessing slightly more since a center relocation wouldn't affect the synoptics and it would take longer for Isaac to make its way over there than to LA (which juts out into the Gulf).
0 likes   

User avatar
TwisterFanatic
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1041
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma

Re: Re:

#5720 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:32 am

Air Force Met wrote:
TwisterFanatic wrote:Don't think it's actually that much farther north of the original center.

I maybe wrong though.


It's a LOT further NW of the old center...by about 60-70 miles. It's a short term motion of about 30 mph. The LLC just got sucked up...


Ah, I see. Somebody said NE and it got me confused.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests