ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6181 Postby StarmanHDB » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:16 pm

I know that the storm is gaining strength, but why is it when my untrained eye observes the vis sat loop (where our vantage point is obviously looking down from above) the whole core seems to be wobbling on an unsteady axis? Even if there is no eye, shouldn't a healthy, strengthening storm's core appear more like a steady and upright column?
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Re:

#6182 Postby ozonepete » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:16 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:And will this west movement affect the landfall location?


Not if it's just part of a stair-step motion.
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#6183 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:17 pm

well for all the hype, Tampa has so far skated through this one. The worst of the weather seems to have been experienced thus far on the eastern coast of the state, with that powerful, training band that hasn't let up since yesterday it seems! But we have sunny skies here in Pinellas county again. Just some breezy weather and intermittent sprinkles today. We had a couple of short downpours late yeasterday afternoon/early evening, but that was it. I dropped my pool level by about 4 inches yesterday morning, and haven't made much of that back at all. So kinda bummed that I'll probably end up having to fill it back up myself, since Isaac is much less wet than we figured he would be. We'll see what the backside of the storm brings us as far as elevated sea levels, but that will probably be all we have to deal with. That big dry swath to Isaac's right is keeping much of the area in the clear today.
That said, there are a few spotty storms traveling northward in the middle of the state, and some have embedded rotation/tornadoes. I've heard the radio warnings a few times so far today, but they have been to the east of Pinellas county.
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#6184 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:17 pm

Looks to me like the LLC is getting pulled under the convection and that's why we're getting the extended west movement.
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Re: Re:

#6185 Postby AFWeather » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:17 pm

ozonepete wrote:
wxwatcher1999 wrote:
Texashawk wrote:
Thank God I'm not going crazy. I thought I was the only one around here who saw it. :lol:


Now is this west movement something that will happen for a little longer?


It's stair-stepping: staright west then straight north, etc. They will smooth out the path based on multiple fixes and most likely come up with NW again.


That is correct. Tropical cyclones often do not move along a smooth, curved line like you see in the forecast track. They wobble back in forth so it's important not to focus on movement over 2-3 hours until it is very close to making landfall. When the motion is averaged out over a 6-12 hour period, it will almost certainly be NW.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6186 Postby HurrMark » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:984 mbs is a pretty low pressure for a Tropical Storm. I wonder what was the lowest pressure ever for a TS.


They are probably keeping at 65 since they are waiting for recon. This storm is tightening up per wxman57, so the pressure gradient should translate to stronger winds.
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#6187 Postby rainstorm » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:18 pm

993 is generally considered a minimal cane. lets see if it can take off tonight.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6188 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:18 pm

Blinhart wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:I would give Isaac an 85% chance of remaining the same by the 5 PM update. I would also give it a 65% chance of remaining the same (65 mph/988 mbar) by the 11 PM update.

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That is pretty gutsy. I'm thinking the 2pm update will be at least 75mph/985mb, and the numbers slowly going up to where the 11pm could be as high as 90mph/980. Just looking at the progression of this storm, the atmosphere it is entering, and the projected slow down in forward speed.


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Sorry, it is still at 65 mph, according to the 2 PM update. It can't really intensify by 10 mph in 3 hours with all those structural problems, it would be quite rare for a storm entraining dry air and experiencing some shear, along with an ill-defined circulation to suddenly ramp up into a hurricane in even 12 hours, let alone 3 hours. The pressure has dropped by 4 mbar, though, which could mean something.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6189 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:20 pm

WNW to my eye as the center got pulled to the deep convection....as it rotates it will probably correct itself...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6190 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:21 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:I would give Isaac an 85% chance of remaining the same by the 5 PM update. I would also give it a 65% chance of remaining the same (65 mph/988 mbar) by the 11 PM update.

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That is pretty gutsy. I'm thinking the 2pm update will be at least 75mph/985mb, and the numbers slowly going up to where the 11pm could be as high as 90mph/980. Just looking at the progression of this storm, the atmosphere it is entering, and the projected slow down in forward speed.


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Sorry, it is still at 65 mph, according to the 2 PM update. It can't really intensify by 10 mph in 3 hours with all those structural problems, it would be quite rare for a storm entraining dry air and experiencing some shear, along with an ill-defined circulation to suddenly ramp up into a hurricane in even 12 hours, let alone 3 hours. The pressure has dropped by 4 mbar, though, which could mean something.




um, Humberto? :D
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Re: Re:

#6191 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:21 pm

ozonepete wrote:
It's stair-stepping: straight west then straight north, etc. They will smooth out the path based on multiple fixes and most likely come up with NW again.


Yep, though it is a little hard to believe that the long term motion has been NW but from the recon reports the long term motion has been 295, so really its more of a WNW, though if you use the mark where the NHC have had it, that becomes 307, so it seems the center tucked intp the CDO more and may have caught the NHC a little unaware, not that it matters that much probably.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6192 Postby AFWeather » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:22 pm

Based on this mission 60 kt seems reasonable for the next advisory.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6193 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:22 pm

HurrMark wrote:
cycloneye wrote:984 mbs is a pretty low pressure for a Tropical Storm. I wonder what was the lowest pressure ever for a TS.


They are probably keeping at 65 since they are waiting for recon. This storm is tightening up per wxman57, so the pressure gradient should translate to stronger winds.


Data seems to support 60 kt right now. Also, there have been TS's at higher latitudes with pressures in the 960s.
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Re: Re:

#6194 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:23 pm

AFWeather wrote:That is correct. Tropical cyclones often do not move along a smooth, curved line like you see in the forecast track. They wobble back in forth so it's important not to focus on movement over 2-3 hours until it is very close to making landfall. When the motion is averaged out over a 6-12 hour period, it will almost certainly be NW.


Yep sure looks like a long term NW, but to be fair the last 3-4hrs has been at 295 and so who knows!

Either way it does look like its trying to strengthen somewhat.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6195 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:26 pm

AFWeather wrote:Based on this mission 60 kt seems reasonable for the next advisory.


Yeah I'd go along with that, it can't be all that far away from being a hurricane at the moment, I think if convection manages to thicken up on the NE side we will see a quite sharp increase in max wind speeds.
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#6196 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:28 pm

Can someone explain what is going to make it turn north please?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6197 Postby stormhunter7 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:31 pm

SFMR data from AFRecon is showing we might have Hurricane Isaac now.. winds at surface 70-75mph!

*Of Course thats on SE Leg outbound... expect higher winds in NE Side of storm... Flight level center is compact now
Last edited by stormhunter7 on Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#6198 Postby psyclone » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:32 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:Can someone explain what is going to make it turn north please?

it's not supposed to turn north before landfall. it's expected to travel northwest, which, when one smoothes out the bumps it's largely been doing.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6199 Postby Tom8 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:35 pm

Image

..
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#6200 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:36 pm

Has anyone noted that HPC's 5-day QPF is now included in the Isaac section of the NHC?

Image
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