ATL: LESLIE - Models

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Hybridstorm_November2001
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#261 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:26 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Thank you Meri and Rip. I don't know where to go and look for the runs elsewhere, so I can only rely on them being posted here.


Here is another good site I found, for GFS & ECMWF model animations, several years ago:

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/

Here is the best general site:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#262 Postby Riptide » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:33 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Some of the current model runs, such as the GFS & ECMWF, seem to be hinting at some type of interchange (perhaps even a trough phasing/merging) between Leslie and a cutoff low that forms along the coast. Looks like some interesting days ahead.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Interests in Eastern North America, particularly Canada should continue watching Leslie for indirect and direct effects. Chances are it could be right offshore.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#263 Postby HurrMark » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:48 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Some of the current model runs, such as the GFS & ECMWF, seem to be hinting at some type of interchange (perhaps even a trough phasing/merging) between Leslie and a cutoff low that forms along the coast. Looks like some interesting days ahead.



Probably for the Canadian Maritimes...I don't see a threat to the US.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#264 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:51 pm

HurrMark wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Some of the current model runs, such as the GFS & ECMWF, seem to be hinting at some type of interchange (perhaps even a trough phasing/merging) between Leslie and a cutoff low that forms along the coast. Looks like some interesting days ahead.



Probably for the Canadian Maritimes...I don't see a threat to the US.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I can't say that. The 0z euro was very close to having Leslie get entrained into the 500mb low over the Mid-Atlantic. The 12z GFS is also very close. It is the basicly like seeing if a winterstorm, will phase or not. It is close...what is a few hundred miles amongst friends...
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#265 Postby Riptide » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:52 pm

drezee wrote:
HurrMark wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Some of the current model runs, such as the GFS & ECMWF, seem to be hinting at some type of interchange (perhaps even a trough phasing/merging) between Leslie and a cutoff low that forms along the coast. Looks like some interesting days ahead.



Probably for the Canadian Maritimes...I don't see a threat to the US.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I can't say that. The 0z euro was very close to having Leslie get entrained into the 500mb low over the Mid-Atlantic. The 12z GFS is also very close. It is the basicly like seeing if a winterstor, will phase or not. It is close...what a few hundred mils amongst friends...

That would be utterly ridiculous by all standards and historical perceptions, but since we are still 6 days out from real model agreement.....definitely a distinct possibility.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#266 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 04, 2012 2:05 pm

The euro no longer closes off the low. It instead sends a cat 3 into newfoundland at about 40+mph after the pressure rises 30mb from 928...Yuck. Now that is a horrible run for the maritimes...
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#267 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 2:08 pm

drezee wrote:The euro no longer closes off the low. It instead sends a cat 3 into newfoundland at about 40+mph after the pressure rises 30mb from 928...Yuck. Now that is a horrible run for the maritimes...


Actually Newfoundland isn't part of the Maritimes, rather it is in Atlantic Canada. The three provinces of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia & Prince Edward Island make up the Maritimes. The run is looking better for us, not so much for Newfoundland though. :double:
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#268 Postby tailgater » Wed Sep 05, 2012 9:28 am

The NAM might interest some people. entertainment only.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/eta15hr_sfc_mslp.gif
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#269 Postby Time_Zone » Wed Sep 05, 2012 11:25 am

Looks like it'll stay safely off-shore from me in Nova Scotia.
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#270 Postby Frank2 » Wed Sep 05, 2012 11:53 am

True about Atlantic Canada (my Aunt lives just the other side of the US/New Brunswick border, that along with Nova Scotia and PEI make up Atlantic Canada)...

P.S. Incredible that the GFS shows Leslie becoming a 971 mb low east of Hudson Bay - wow...
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#271 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 05, 2012 5:08 pm

The models have been subtly shifting east, there were some New England landfalls earlier now it looks like the weak side of the storm may race past the Maritimes headed toward Newfoundland. At least Leslie is moving now.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#272 Postby MJS1 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 2:41 am

To my tired eyes,Leslie seems to expanding west and is basically not moving,,As long as it stands still,the steering winds can and will change..I dont think that anyone knows exactly where Leslie will make land fall. I still sat Florida

***MY OPINION ONLY>>LISTEN TO NOAA AND NHC FOR ACCURATE INFORMATION***
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#273 Postby rog » Fri Sep 07, 2012 5:50 pm

Just out of curiosity, what makes you think it will hit florida?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#274 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:08 pm

rog wrote:Just out of curiosity, what makes you think it will hit florida?


Because he just likes getting laughed at. :spam:
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