NDG wrote:What El Nino?
I think we will have to wait a lot longer before El Nino gets declared, if at all.
Even if 3.4 cools to 0.0 for the next two weeks, the ONI (trimonthly) covering JAS (based on averaging the weeklies) would still be up at +0.5. JJA averaged +0.5 based on the weeklies (ignoring what the table shows...it is so out of whack with regard to the weeklies, as the NOAA/NCEP people told me a couple of weeks back, that they are ignoring the latest ONI table #'s and are depending on the weeklies for their weekly Monday ENSO resports). So, assuming 3.4 would subsequently warm back up, there'd be no break in the +0.5+ ONI #'s. So, if this occurs, and the ONI's go on to have five in a row of +0.5+, then we'd already be within El Nino once it is declared retroactively
People should look at what the Nino 3.4 weeklies did between August and mid Sep. in both 1991 and 1994 before declaring this Nino dead:1991: went up to +0.9 on 7/31 but
cooled 0.8 to only +0.1 on 9/11 and was still only +0.4 on 9/25. The weeklies then rose all the way to +2.0 on 12/18. The ASO ONI went down only 0.1 from the earlier max before rebounding and remained safely above the +0.5 threshold. The ONI then rose 0.9 to its max in DJF that was above +1.5....so it peaked as a
strong Nino.1994: went up to +0.7 on 8/10 but
cooled 0.6 to only +0.1 on 9/14 and was still only +0.2 on 9/21. The weeklies then rose all the way to +1.4 on 11/30. The ASO ONI actually rose 0.1 from JAS (and was already at the +0.5+ threshold). The ONI then rose to above +1.0 at its max in NDJ...so it peaked as a
moderate Nino.2012: went up to +0.9 on 8/29 but
cooled 0.6 to +0.3 on 9/19. Do you see the similar patterns?