Caribbean - Central America Weather
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
8 PM discussion of Tropical Waves.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N39W
TO 11N41W MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE
BETWEEN 11N-15N.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N63W THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TO 14N68W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK ISOLATED SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N39W
TO 11N41W MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE
BETWEEN 11N-15N.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N63W THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TO 14N68W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK ISOLATED SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.
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- cycloneye
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning.Some wet times are ahead for the Caribbean as a series of waves and troughs will be around.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 AM AST SAT SEP 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE ERN CARIB IS EXPECTED TO FILL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA. CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC IS FCST TO DROP ALONG 60W AND EXTEND A TROUGH
INTO OUR AREA TUE. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THAT WE`LL HAVE ONE MORE ACTIVE
AFTERNOON AS INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. LATEST GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ALTHOUGH LOCAL
WRF AND HI-RES ARW AND NMM SHOW SIG LESS CVRG FOR TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YDAY. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SVR WX WERE RECEIVED YDAY I
STILL CAN`T RULED OUT SOME HAIL DUE TO FCST OF LOWER -20C HEIGHT
AND WBZ LEVELS AND PRETTY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. TUTT FILLS SUN AND
AIR MASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY SUN AND MON WITH ONLY SPOTTY
CONVECTION.
SECOND CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC DROPS ALONG 60W ON TUE
KEEPING UPPER TROUGHFINESS OVR OUR AREA WITH CYCLONIC VORTICITY
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TUE. MORE OF THE SAME WED AND THU WITH CUTOFF LOW WEAKENING WITH
TIME AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST BY NEXT FRI.
AS ALL OF THIS OCCURS...MODELS SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING
PATTERN ACROSS THE ATLC BREAKING DOWN WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND THEN INTERACTING WITH A BROAD
SFC LOW OVR THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE NET RESULT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN ACROSS THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WITH DEEP
MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE ERN DOM REP AND PR TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN NEXT SUN SEP 30.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST/TISX...TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 22/17Z...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND THE VICINITY
OF TJMZ AND TJSJ. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR. WINDS FROM SURFACE TO 15KFT WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT THROUGH TODAY BUILDING TO 5 FT SUN IN NE
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE.
&&
.CLIMATE...AT THE SAN JUAN AREA...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS
THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH ONLY 0.31 INCHES SO FAR. IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURES...SEPTEMBER 2012 REMAINS ON PACE TO BE THE WARMEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR HAS BEEN 85.1
DEGREES. THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WAS SEPTEMBER 1995 WITH AN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 84.9 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...SEPTEMBER 2012
CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD HOTTEST MONTH OF ANY YEAR...TYING
JUNE AND JULY 1980. THE HOTTEST MONTH EVER WAS JUNE 2012 WITH AN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 85.7 DEGREES.
AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT/SAINT THOMAS...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY
RANKS AS THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH 0.76 INCHES SO FAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 30 10 10 10
STT 90 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 AM AST SAT SEP 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE ERN CARIB IS EXPECTED TO FILL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA. CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC IS FCST TO DROP ALONG 60W AND EXTEND A TROUGH
INTO OUR AREA TUE. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THAT WE`LL HAVE ONE MORE ACTIVE
AFTERNOON AS INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. LATEST GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ALTHOUGH LOCAL
WRF AND HI-RES ARW AND NMM SHOW SIG LESS CVRG FOR TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YDAY. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SVR WX WERE RECEIVED YDAY I
STILL CAN`T RULED OUT SOME HAIL DUE TO FCST OF LOWER -20C HEIGHT
AND WBZ LEVELS AND PRETTY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. TUTT FILLS SUN AND
AIR MASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY SUN AND MON WITH ONLY SPOTTY
CONVECTION.
SECOND CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC DROPS ALONG 60W ON TUE
KEEPING UPPER TROUGHFINESS OVR OUR AREA WITH CYCLONIC VORTICITY
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TUE. MORE OF THE SAME WED AND THU WITH CUTOFF LOW WEAKENING WITH
TIME AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST BY NEXT FRI.
AS ALL OF THIS OCCURS...MODELS SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING
PATTERN ACROSS THE ATLC BREAKING DOWN WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND THEN INTERACTING WITH A BROAD
SFC LOW OVR THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE NET RESULT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN ACROSS THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WITH DEEP
MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE ERN DOM REP AND PR TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN NEXT SUN SEP 30.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST/TISX...TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 22/17Z...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND THE VICINITY
OF TJMZ AND TJSJ. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR. WINDS FROM SURFACE TO 15KFT WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT THROUGH TODAY BUILDING TO 5 FT SUN IN NE
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE.
&&
.CLIMATE...AT THE SAN JUAN AREA...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS
THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH ONLY 0.31 INCHES SO FAR. IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURES...SEPTEMBER 2012 REMAINS ON PACE TO BE THE WARMEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR HAS BEEN 85.1
DEGREES. THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WAS SEPTEMBER 1995 WITH AN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 84.9 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...SEPTEMBER 2012
CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD HOTTEST MONTH OF ANY YEAR...TYING
JUNE AND JULY 1980. THE HOTTEST MONTH EVER WAS JUNE 2012 WITH AN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 85.7 DEGREES.
AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT/SAINT THOMAS...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY
RANKS AS THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH 0.76 INCHES SO FAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 30 10 10 10
STT 90 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 10
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
8 AM discussion.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM
18N42W TO 11N46W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING
EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 44W-51W.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM
18N42W TO 11N46W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING
EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 44W-51W.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 AM AST SAT SEP 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AROUND 30N60W WITH LOW
COUPLETS THE FIRST AND DEEPER LOW NEAR 30N/60W THE SECOND LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. TUTT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST AXIS OF THE TUTT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
.DISCUSSION...MIXED BAG OF FORECAST PARAMETERS TODAY...WE ARE
DRIER THAT WE HAVE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER DROPPING TO 1.6 INCHES...LESS LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH
HELICITY VALUES OF 1 TODAY COMPARED TO A -3 YESTERDAY. YOU WOULD
THINK THAT LOWER MOISTURE AND LESS SHEAR WOULD LEAVE A DRIER
FORECAST...I GUESS AREA WISE THAT WOULD BE CORRECT. THE ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT I BELIEVE WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THE
INTRUSION OF SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT. FREEZING LEVEL HAS DROPPED
ABOUT 600 FEET SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...ADD TO THAT AN SMALL
INCREASE IN VERTICAL VELOCITIES...MORE CAPE TO PLAY WITH (3924
J/KG) AND A NICE LIFTING INDEX OF -7.0. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT
ALTHOUGH WE HAVE LESS MOISTURE...THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE A BIT MORE LIFT AND ENERGY SO WHERE THEY OCCUR
LOOK FOR SOME VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND MAYBE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED BOOMER PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...MOSTLY
LIKELY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COURNER OF MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIMIT TO
STREAMERS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LESS SIDE OF THE U.S.V.I.
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EL YUNQUE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST/TISX...TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 22/17Z...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND
TJSJ. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR. WINDS FROM SURFACE TO 15KFT WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT THROUGH TODAY BUILDING TO 5 FT SUN IN NE
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 20 10 10 10
STT 90 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 AM AST SAT SEP 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AROUND 30N60W WITH LOW
COUPLETS THE FIRST AND DEEPER LOW NEAR 30N/60W THE SECOND LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. TUTT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST AXIS OF THE TUTT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
.DISCUSSION...MIXED BAG OF FORECAST PARAMETERS TODAY...WE ARE
DRIER THAT WE HAVE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER DROPPING TO 1.6 INCHES...LESS LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH
HELICITY VALUES OF 1 TODAY COMPARED TO A -3 YESTERDAY. YOU WOULD
THINK THAT LOWER MOISTURE AND LESS SHEAR WOULD LEAVE A DRIER
FORECAST...I GUESS AREA WISE THAT WOULD BE CORRECT. THE ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT I BELIEVE WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THE
INTRUSION OF SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT. FREEZING LEVEL HAS DROPPED
ABOUT 600 FEET SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...ADD TO THAT AN SMALL
INCREASE IN VERTICAL VELOCITIES...MORE CAPE TO PLAY WITH (3924
J/KG) AND A NICE LIFTING INDEX OF -7.0. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT
ALTHOUGH WE HAVE LESS MOISTURE...THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE A BIT MORE LIFT AND ENERGY SO WHERE THEY OCCUR
LOOK FOR SOME VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND MAYBE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED BOOMER PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...MOSTLY
LIKELY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COURNER OF MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIMIT TO
STREAMERS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LESS SIDE OF THE U.S.V.I.
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EL YUNQUE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST/TISX...TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 22/17Z...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND
TJSJ. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR. WINDS FROM SURFACE TO 15KFT WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT THROUGH TODAY BUILDING TO 5 FT SUN IN NE
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 20 10 10 10
STT 90 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 10
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
2 PM Tropical Weather Outlook
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N44W TO 11N49W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN A HORIZONTALLY ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN
45W-48W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FARTHER WEST FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN
52W-55W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N44W TO 11N49W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN A HORIZONTALLY ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN
45W-48W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FARTHER WEST FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN
52W-55W.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
227 PM AST SAT SEP 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SATELLITE ANALYSIS
DEPICTED TWO TUTT LOWS...ONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC JUST NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE FA AND ANOTHER ONE JUST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE FILLING. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE FILLING...OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ONLY FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE DETECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...MOVING LATER OVER
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...DEPICTED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS/REFLECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOWS. THESE PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PRODUCING INTERVALS
OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHTS AND ACROSS WESTERN...NORTHWEST AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. PWAT VALUES
WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE 1.50-2.00 INCHES FOR THE FORECAST PERIODS.
THESE PWAT VALUES DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...
LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND MARGINAL FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC
IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE FEW AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW LEVEL
REFLECTION/PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TYPE OF
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
BY THE NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS INDICATED THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION...INDUCING A VERY DEEP MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST/TISX...
TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFTER
23/17Z...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND
THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJSJ. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR. WINDS FROM SURFACE TO 15KFT
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 10
STT 90 79 91 82 / 20 10 10 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
227 PM AST SAT SEP 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SATELLITE ANALYSIS
DEPICTED TWO TUTT LOWS...ONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC JUST NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE FA AND ANOTHER ONE JUST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE FILLING. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE FILLING...OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ONLY FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE DETECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...MOVING LATER OVER
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...DEPICTED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS/REFLECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOWS. THESE PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PRODUCING INTERVALS
OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHTS AND ACROSS WESTERN...NORTHWEST AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. PWAT VALUES
WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE 1.50-2.00 INCHES FOR THE FORECAST PERIODS.
THESE PWAT VALUES DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...
LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND MARGINAL FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC
IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE FEW AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW LEVEL
REFLECTION/PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TYPE OF
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
BY THE NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS INDICATED THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION...INDUCING A VERY DEEP MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST/TISX...
TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFTER
23/17Z...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND
THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJSJ. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR. WINDS FROM SURFACE TO 15KFT
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 10
STT 90 79 91 82 / 20 10 10 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

cycloneye wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
227 PM AST SAT SEP 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SATELLITE ANALYSIS
DEPICTED TWO TUTT LOWS...ONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC JUST NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE FA AND ANOTHER ONE JUST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE FILLING. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE FILLING...OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ONLY FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE DETECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...MOVING LATER OVER
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...DEPICTED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS/REFLECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOWS. THESE PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PRODUCING INTERVALS
OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHTS AND ACROSS WESTERN...NORTHWEST AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. PWAT VALUES
WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE 1.50-2.00 INCHES FOR THE FORECAST PERIODS.
THESE PWAT VALUES DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...
LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND MARGINAL FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC
IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE FEW AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW LEVEL
REFLECTION/PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TYPE OF
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
BY THE NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS INDICATED THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION...INDUCING A VERY DEEP MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST/TISX...
TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFTER
23/17Z...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND
THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJSJ. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR. WINDS FROM SURFACE TO 15KFT
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 10
STT 90 79 91 82 / 20 10 10 10
Very interresting discussion ahead Cycloneye. Let's see what models do with a possible low south of PR

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- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Gusty,time will tell the real story about what will occur about that.
8 PM Discussion of wave in Central Atlantic.
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
FROM 15N45W TO 10N50W MOVING W AT ABOUT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES
WITHIN A HORIZONTALLY ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AROUND THE WAVE AXIS IS NOTED ON
INFRA-RED IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 45W-48W.

8 PM Discussion of wave in Central Atlantic.
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
FROM 15N45W TO 10N50W MOVING W AT ABOUT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES
WITHIN A HORIZONTALLY ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AROUND THE WAVE AXIS IS NOTED ON
INFRA-RED IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 45W-48W.
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- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
cycloneye wrote:Gusty,time will tell the real story about what will occur about that.![]()
8 PM Discussion of wave in Central Atlantic.
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
FROM 15N45W TO 10N50W MOVING W AT ABOUT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES
WITHIN A HORIZONTALLY ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AROUND THE WAVE AXIS IS NOTED ON
INFRA-RED IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 45W-48W.
Yeah you're right


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- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ASSOCIATED LOWS THE FIRST AND DEEPER
NEAR 30N/60W AND THE SECOND LOW OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOWS WILL CONTINUE
TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH ITS AXIS REACHING THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH AN
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO
RICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TOWARDS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AIR MASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AND
MONDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL INDUCE SPOTTY
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST PUERTO RICO BOTH DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WET/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
&&
.AVIATION...AN ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE AT JBQ AND JMZ THIS AFTERNOON
BUT PROB TOO LOW TO HAVE EITHER A VCTS OR PROB30 GROUP.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES WITH NO SIG WX.
ONSHORE SFC WINDS 15G20KT DURING THE DAY BCMG L/V AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...PULSES OF NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TRANQUIL MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND
WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 91 79 / 0 10 10 20
STT 90 82 90 81 / 0 10 10 40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ASSOCIATED LOWS THE FIRST AND DEEPER
NEAR 30N/60W AND THE SECOND LOW OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOWS WILL CONTINUE
TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH ITS AXIS REACHING THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH AN
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO
RICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TOWARDS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AIR MASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AND
MONDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL INDUCE SPOTTY
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST PUERTO RICO BOTH DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WET/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
&&
.AVIATION...AN ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE AT JBQ AND JMZ THIS AFTERNOON
BUT PROB TOO LOW TO HAVE EITHER A VCTS OR PROB30 GROUP.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES WITH NO SIG WX.
ONSHORE SFC WINDS 15G20KT DURING THE DAY BCMG L/V AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...PULSES OF NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TRANQUIL MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND
WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 91 79 / 0 10 10 20
STT 90 82 90 81 / 0 10 10 40
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Gusty,this is what has been going on in La Isla del Encanto and in ST Thomas on September.
.CLIMATE...AT THE SAN JUAN AREA...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH ONLY 0.45 INCHES SO FAR.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...SEPTEMBER 2012 REMAINS ON PACE TO BE
THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR
HAS BEEN 85.1 DEGREES. THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WAS
SEPTEMBER 1995 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 84.9 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD HOTTEST
MONTH OF ANY YEAR...TYING JUNE AND JULY 1980. THE HOTTEST MONTH
EVER WAS JUNE 2012 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 85.7 DEGREES.
AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT/SAINT THOMAS...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY
RANKS AS THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH 0.76 INCHES SO FAR.
.CLIMATE...AT THE SAN JUAN AREA...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH ONLY 0.45 INCHES SO FAR.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...SEPTEMBER 2012 REMAINS ON PACE TO BE
THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR
HAS BEEN 85.1 DEGREES. THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WAS
SEPTEMBER 1995 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 84.9 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD HOTTEST
MONTH OF ANY YEAR...TYING JUNE AND JULY 1980. THE HOTTEST MONTH
EVER WAS JUNE 2012 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 85.7 DEGREES.
AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT/SAINT THOMAS...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY
RANKS AS THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH 0.76 INCHES SO FAR.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
cycloneye wrote:Gusty,this is what has been going on in La Isla del Encanto and in ST Thomas on September.
.CLIMATE...AT THE SAN JUAN AREA...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH ONLY 0.45 INCHES SO FAR.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...SEPTEMBER 2012 REMAINS ON PACE TO BE
THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR
HAS BEEN 85.1 DEGREES. THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WAS
SEPTEMBER 1995 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 84.9 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD HOTTEST
MONTH OF ANY YEAR...TYING JUNE AND JULY 1980. THE HOTTEST MONTH
EVER WAS JUNE 2012 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 85.7 DEGREES.
AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT/SAINT THOMAS...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY
RANKS AS THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH 0.76 INCHES SO FAR.
Oh boy


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- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
8 AM discussion of Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles.
TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 15N52W
TO 9N53W MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 50W-60W TO
INCLUDE OVER BARBADOS.
TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 15N52W
TO 9N53W MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 50W-60W TO
INCLUDE OVER BARBADOS.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1043 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2012
.UPDATE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ONLY FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED
MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
AS WELL AS SATELLITE ANALYSIS DEPICTED TWO TUTT LOWS...ONE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC JUST NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE FA AND ANOTHER
ONE JUST OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. BOTH UPPER LOW ACROSS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY WESTWARD APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE FILLING. THESE FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL LOW LEVEL REELECTIONS/PERTURBATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PRODUCING
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE 1.50-1.80
INCHES FOR THE FORECAST PERIODS. THESE PWAT VALUES DO NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND MARGINAL
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE FEW AREAS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
BY THE NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS INDICATED THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION...INDUCING A VERY DEEP MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. STAY TUNED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1043 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2012
.UPDATE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ONLY FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED
MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
AS WELL AS SATELLITE ANALYSIS DEPICTED TWO TUTT LOWS...ONE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC JUST NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE FA AND ANOTHER
ONE JUST OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. BOTH UPPER LOW ACROSS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY WESTWARD APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE FILLING. THESE FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL LOW LEVEL REELECTIONS/PERTURBATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PRODUCING
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE 1.50-1.80
INCHES FOR THE FORECAST PERIODS. THESE PWAT VALUES DO NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND MARGINAL
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE FEW AREAS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
BY THE NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS INDICATED THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION...INDUCING A VERY DEEP MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. STAY TUNED.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
2 PM discussion of Tropical Wave approaching the Lesser Antilles.
TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 15N51W
TO 10N55W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH THE
W AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E. CONVECTION IS MORE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ THAN THE WAVE ITSELF.
TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 15N51W
TO 10N55W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH THE
W AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E. CONVECTION IS MORE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ THAN THE WAVE ITSELF.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WITH EMBEDDED LOWS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...EXPECT A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIMITED
CONVECTION AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AT THE SAME
TIME...AFOREMENTIONED TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH ITS AXIS REACHING THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TOWARDS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
OF A WET/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL...NORTH AND WEST PR FROM
24/16Z-24/22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR
OR OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ...WITH MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS OVER
INTERIOR PR. LATEST 23/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED MAINLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 20K FEET...BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY ABOVE.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS IN NORTHEAST SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 78 90 / 10 10 20 30
STT 82 90 81 90 / 10 10 40 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WITH EMBEDDED LOWS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...EXPECT A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIMITED
CONVECTION AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AT THE SAME
TIME...AFOREMENTIONED TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH ITS AXIS REACHING THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TOWARDS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
OF A WET/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL...NORTH AND WEST PR FROM
24/16Z-24/22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR
OR OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ...WITH MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS OVER
INTERIOR PR. LATEST 23/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED MAINLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 20K FEET...BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY ABOVE.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS IN NORTHEAST SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 78 90 / 10 10 20 30
STT 82 90 81 90 / 10 10 40 40
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
8 PM Discussion of Tropical Wave.
TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 14N54W
TO 11N58W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 5W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THE WAVE...ENHANCING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS AND OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN. THE CONVECTION NEAR THE
WAVE SEEMS TO BE MORE RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW THAN THE WAVE
ITSELF.
TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 14N54W
TO 11N58W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 5W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THE WAVE...ENHANCING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS AND OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN. THE CONVECTION NEAR THE
WAVE SEEMS TO BE MORE RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW THAN THE WAVE
ITSELF.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
637 AM AST MON SEP 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WITH EMBEDDED LOWS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO AND
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TUTT WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOMORROW WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
PUERTO RICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TOWARDS NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...CONTINUE TO
EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO TODAY.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED MAINLY DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
&&
.AVIATION...AN ISOLD TSRA IN THE VCNTY OF JMZ THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES WITH NO SIG WX.
ENE SFC WINDS 16G23KT DURING THE DAY BCMG L/V AFTER SUNSET XCPT
FOR A WNW WIND AROUND 10 KT AT JMZ IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS IN NORTHEAST SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
637 AM AST MON SEP 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WITH EMBEDDED LOWS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO AND
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TUTT WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOMORROW WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
PUERTO RICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TOWARDS NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...CONTINUE TO
EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO TODAY.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED MAINLY DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
&&
.AVIATION...AN ISOLD TSRA IN THE VCNTY OF JMZ THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES WITH NO SIG WX.
ENE SFC WINDS 16G23KT DURING THE DAY BCMG L/V AFTER SUNSET XCPT
FOR A WNW WIND AROUND 10 KT AT JMZ IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS IN NORTHEAST SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
2 PM discussion of Tropical Wave.
TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 17N57W
TO 11N59W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS LOST A LOT OF ITS
ENERGY AS SOME OF THE ENERGY WAS SPREAD OUT HORIZONTALLY AHEAD
OF IT...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE
SE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL PATCH OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
EAST OF THE WAVE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 17N57W
TO 11N59W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS LOST A LOT OF ITS
ENERGY AS SOME OF THE ENERGY WAS SPREAD OUT HORIZONTALLY AHEAD
OF IT...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE
SE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL PATCH OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
EAST OF THE WAVE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST MON SEP 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LOW IN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
TROUGH SITS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER WEDNESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST RETREATS AND DISSIPATES.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVES
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK TROUGHINESS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY BUILDS
FROM THE EAST SATURDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC CREATING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BRINGS UP SOME
MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RESUMPTION
OF THE TRADE WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN FORMING AFTER 1 PM
AST AND BY 2:30 PM CELLS WERE SCATTERED IN A CHAIN FROM SAINT
THOMAS TO CEIBA AND FROM OROCOVIS TO CABO ROJO. THE STRONG HEATING
PROMISES TO ALLOW MORE SUCH CELLS TO FORM BEFORE SUNSET AND
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE QUITE WARM WITH 92 DEGREES...SO FAR...IN SAN JUAN. CHANGES
IN THE PATTERN WILL BE SMALL AND GRADUAL WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
SLOWLY AND WINDS DECREASING AFTER TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
A LITTLE DRYING TREND ON FRIDAY THE PATTERN DESCRIBED ABOVE THAT
BRINGS MOIST FLOW TO THE AREA FROM SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD GENERATE
INCREASING SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NORTH COAST MAY
RECEIVE LITTLE OF THIS IF LINES DO NOT FORM TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE
COAST...DUE TO THE OROGRAPHIC SHADOWING...BUT THE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES SHOULD RECEIVE NEEDED MOISTURE. AFTER THE WEEKEND MOISTURE
DIMINISHES AGAIN AND FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST ONLY
MODEST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO WILL AFFECT THE AREAS AROUND TJMZ AND POSSIBLY
TJPS...THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AT THE SURFACE AND FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 KTS AT 2K FT. SHRA/TSRA ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PR. EXPECT ISOLD TOPS OF 45
TO 55 KFT OVER LAND TILL ARND 24/22Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS HOLD NEAR 5 TO 6 FEET IN OPEN WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND FALL AS WINDS DIMINISH. NADINE IS ALMOST 2500 MILES
EAST NORTHEAST AND WILL PROVIDE ABOUT HALF OF THE SWELL TO BE SEEN
IN THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 89 / 30 30 30 30
STT 80 90 79 88 / 30 30 30 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST MON SEP 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LOW IN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
TROUGH SITS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER WEDNESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST RETREATS AND DISSIPATES.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVES
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK TROUGHINESS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY BUILDS
FROM THE EAST SATURDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC CREATING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BRINGS UP SOME
MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RESUMPTION
OF THE TRADE WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN FORMING AFTER 1 PM
AST AND BY 2:30 PM CELLS WERE SCATTERED IN A CHAIN FROM SAINT
THOMAS TO CEIBA AND FROM OROCOVIS TO CABO ROJO. THE STRONG HEATING
PROMISES TO ALLOW MORE SUCH CELLS TO FORM BEFORE SUNSET AND
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE QUITE WARM WITH 92 DEGREES...SO FAR...IN SAN JUAN. CHANGES
IN THE PATTERN WILL BE SMALL AND GRADUAL WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
SLOWLY AND WINDS DECREASING AFTER TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
A LITTLE DRYING TREND ON FRIDAY THE PATTERN DESCRIBED ABOVE THAT
BRINGS MOIST FLOW TO THE AREA FROM SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD GENERATE
INCREASING SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NORTH COAST MAY
RECEIVE LITTLE OF THIS IF LINES DO NOT FORM TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE
COAST...DUE TO THE OROGRAPHIC SHADOWING...BUT THE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES SHOULD RECEIVE NEEDED MOISTURE. AFTER THE WEEKEND MOISTURE
DIMINISHES AGAIN AND FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST ONLY
MODEST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO WILL AFFECT THE AREAS AROUND TJMZ AND POSSIBLY
TJPS...THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AT THE SURFACE AND FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 KTS AT 2K FT. SHRA/TSRA ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PR. EXPECT ISOLD TOPS OF 45
TO 55 KFT OVER LAND TILL ARND 24/22Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS HOLD NEAR 5 TO 6 FEET IN OPEN WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND FALL AS WINDS DIMINISH. NADINE IS ALMOST 2500 MILES
EAST NORTHEAST AND WILL PROVIDE ABOUT HALF OF THE SWELL TO BE SEEN
IN THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 89 / 30 30 30 30
STT 80 90 79 88 / 30 30 30 30
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