ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

14/1745 UTC 20.2N 64.5W T3.5/3.5 RAFAEL

[HurricaneAndrew92]

14/1745 UTC 20.2N 64.5W T3.5/3.5 RAFAEL

Strengthening?

[CrazyC83]

14/1745 UTC 20.2N 64.5W T3.5/3.5 RAFAEL

Strengthening?

That supports 55 kt.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

...RAIN BANDS FROM RAFAEL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 64.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

So far data from the recon mission supports an initial intensity of 992 millibars, 65 mph winds at 11pm EDT for Rafael. However, they may very well find higher winds. I still believe NHC is being very conservative with the intensity forecast, especially when considering the model guidance brings it up to a ~80 knot peak.

[CrazyC83]

991mb and 55 kt seem right for the moment - FL winds, SFMR and dropsonde data all support such.

[cycloneye]

Bouy 41043 is throwing important data as the center of Rafael moves nearby.Pressure drops like a rock there.

[cycloneye]

Rafael is getting better and better as time goes by.

[cycloneye]

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 64.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

[ozonepete]

Yes, Luis, it's looking better and better organized. Here's the wide RGB image. getting that classic shape.

[brunota2003]

Between the two center fixes, the center moved just north of west...I got about 280 degrees.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 60kts.

AL, 17, 2012101500, , BEST, 0, 213N, 647W, 60, 989, TS

[CrazyC83]

If we get another pass, we might have Hurricane Rafael by then. Could this become like some storms and get far more intense than forecast?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

If we get another pass, we might have Hurricane Rafael by then. Could this become like some storms and get far more intense than forecast?

IMO, it's quite possible.

[cycloneye]

Between the two center fixes, the center moved just north of west...I got about 280 degrees.

There you have it.

[brunota2003]

Rafael is being...silly? The newest fix is a little south of east of the last fix.

Check it out:

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

...RAFAEL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 64.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

[WeatherGuesser]

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
5:00 AM AST Mon Oct 15
Location: 22.5°N 65.3°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Should get the hurricane treatment at 11 if not 8.

[cycloneye]

This action taken by the Squadron was very commendable to do. From 5 AM discussion.

SPECIAL THANKS TO THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WHO PULLED
DOUBLE DUTY YESTERDAY BY HELPING LOCATE A LIGHT AIRCRAFT AND ITS
PASSENGERS THAT WENT DOWN NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WELL DONE.