ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Can you explain what you mean by So Fla being in the "squeeze play" for several days? Thank you for your response.

The high pressure to the west and the possible hurricane to the east would cause a wind gradient hence the use of squeeze play

[cycloneye]

IMO the only thing I am going to say is that is organizing fast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Hurricaneman]

I'm getting this feeling this is going to be more than what is forecast before leaving the Caribbean based on organizational trends

[fci]

I'm getting this feeling this is going to be more than what is forecast before leaving the Caribbean based on organizational trends

The forecast is to be a Hurricane when it leaves the Caribbean.
I don't expect more than that personally.

I also don't expect South Florida to be in the cone either; to answer a prior post.

[cycloneye]

Hmmm,recon found center more SW than where it was at 2 PM.

[Blown Away]

Hmmm,recon found center more SW than where it was at 2 PM.

Well, the 2pm TD18 was at 13.5N/78.5W, I'm not seeing the new coordinates?

[ozonepete]

Hmmm,recon found center more SW than where it was at 2 PM.

Hmm, yes. Even fairly small amounts of westerly motion now have important bearing on the track.

[Evil Jeremy]

Hmmm,recon found center more SW than where it was at 2 PM.

Well, the 2pm TD18 was at 13.5N/78.5W, I'm not seeing the new coordinates?

There was a wind shift at 12.9N 78.7W

[blp]

Take a look at the graphic below that shows this clearly. The low level circulation is SW of the 2pm.

[wxman57]

Recon may be finding the center close to 13N vs. 13.5N. 78.8W longitude. Plane is making another pass heading east along 12.7-12.8N to see what's there.

[jlauderdal]

Can you explain what you mean by So Fla being in the "squeeze play" for several days? Thank you for your response.

here you go, squeeze play=pressure gradient:
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.


http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KMFL.html

[Hurricaneman]

This is not quite as organized as it looks, the surface low is SW of the MLC and won't majorly develop until this can stack

[gatorcane]

When I loop the SAT images, looks like it is still moving slowly WSW, no hint of any North movement yet. Just how west it goes certainly makes a difference as far as potential impacts down the road:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

Updated 18z Best Track

They changed to what where recon found the center. Still a TD.

AL, 18, 2012102218, , BEST, 0, 129N, 788W, 25, 1002, TD

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Frank2]

Just a guess, but looking at the WV loop, it may do a Hurricane Lenny (1999) and move ENE eventually - NE or ENE is the only weakness at this time to it's north, unless it keeps moving slowly WSW and crosses into the Pacific - that'd be a hoot...

[canes04]

The further SW it goes it may get trapped in the Caribbean. These late season systems in this area are notorious for erratic movements.
Anything is possible.

[Evil Jeremy]

1001.2mb pressure found at 12.1N, 78.25W

Also, TS winds found.

[wxman57]

Yes, expect an upgrade to "Sandy" in 30-45 min. Farther south position doesn't really change the track much in the long run.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the data, accounting for the rain enhancement of the 52 kt SFMR, I would say the intensity is 40 kt.

[Evil Jeremy]

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