Good morning. All eyes are on what will occur with 99L so stay tuned.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST MON OCT 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE TODAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...JUST SOUTH OF
JAMAICA TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS JAMAICA...CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
FROM WEDNESDAY TO AT LEAST SATURDAY THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF
JAMAICA THIS MORNING. ACCORDINGLY TO THE LATEST TWOAT FROM
NHC...THIS LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LATEST COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTH
ACROSS JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RESPECTIVELY
AND THEN HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES...ESPECIALLY JAMAICA CUBA AND HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS OUR FA...INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THIS INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL INDUCE SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOCALLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR BTWN 22/17Z-21Z. AS A RESULT...
MVFR/IFR CONDS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY IN AND
AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ MONDAY AFTERNOON. 22/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED
MAINLY ESE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS FM SFC TO 10 KFT. ABV 10 KFT WINDS
ARE BACKING WITH HEIGHT REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 50 KTS(NW WIND) AT 45
KFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 77 / 40 20 20 10
STT 87 77 87 78 / 40 30 30 30
Caribbean - Central America Weather
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching Invest 99L)
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Caribwxgirl
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching Invest 99L)
Hey there are you here in Jamaica right now?[/quote]
He lives in Ottawa,Canada but he gets information from the islands, (I dont know how he gets those)
[/quote]
thanks cycloneye for replying for me
yeah caribgirl, i wish i was in jamaica now but no im not. i live in the Niagara Peninsula of southern ontario..i follow the weather in the caribbean very closely, i use all kinds of sources. Love reading this thread a lot though. Chockful of info. Cycloneye is a genius when it comes to the weather, i wish we could elect him president of puerto rico well hes president of this thread, no one will dispute. Stay safe caribgirl and keep us updated with the weather in Jamaica! You should get your own rain gauge.
UPDATE Sun Oct 21/12 630pmET I'm hearing no complaints in the weather world today from those in the Eastern Caribbean! Apart from the heat which isn't abnormal this time of the year. Just a few brisk showers overnight in St Vincent ( 2mm at Arnos Vale) and 5 mm at VC Bird Int in Antigua. A record 33mm of rain fell also at the airport in St Thomas Virgin Islands.
Dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere has kept any widespread showers at bay. There was an area of thunderstorms that developed over mainland Venezuela less than 100 miles SW of Trinidad..these formed in the heating of the day. Thunderstorms in the predawn and dawn hours this morning dropped 72mm of rain at Hato Airport in Curacao..that is close to 3 inches of rain! That must have sent the cacti into chaos LOL
-justin-[/quote]
You're chock full of info too it seems but you're right cycloneye is a great resource person. I'll look into getting a rain gauge. I must say though this potential system if freaking me out.
He lives in Ottawa,Canada but he gets information from the islands, (I dont know how he gets those)
[/quote]thanks cycloneye for replying for me
yeah caribgirl, i wish i was in jamaica now but no im not. i live in the Niagara Peninsula of southern ontario..i follow the weather in the caribbean very closely, i use all kinds of sources. Love reading this thread a lot though. Chockful of info. Cycloneye is a genius when it comes to the weather, i wish we could elect him president of puerto rico well hes president of this thread, no one will dispute. Stay safe caribgirl and keep us updated with the weather in Jamaica! You should get your own rain gauge.UPDATE Sun Oct 21/12 630pmET I'm hearing no complaints in the weather world today from those in the Eastern Caribbean! Apart from the heat which isn't abnormal this time of the year. Just a few brisk showers overnight in St Vincent ( 2mm at Arnos Vale) and 5 mm at VC Bird Int in Antigua. A record 33mm of rain fell also at the airport in St Thomas Virgin Islands.
Dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere has kept any widespread showers at bay. There was an area of thunderstorms that developed over mainland Venezuela less than 100 miles SW of Trinidad..these formed in the heating of the day. Thunderstorms in the predawn and dawn hours this morning dropped 72mm of rain at Hato Airport in Curacao..that is close to 3 inches of rain! That must have sent the cacti into chaos LOL
-justin-[/quote]
You're chock full of info too it seems but you're right cycloneye is a great resource person. I'll look into getting a rain gauge. I must say though this potential system if freaking me out.
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Caribwxgirl
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather (Watching Invest 99L)
cycloneye wrote:Caribwxgirl, searching the net I found this from Jamaica in another forum.
October 21, 2012 at 5 p.m.
*** INCREASED RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK……WITH POSSIBLE STORM CONDITIONS BY MID-WEEK
***
An Area of Low Pressure, with an associated Tropical Wave, is currently southeast of Jamaica and is generating unstable weather conditions over the island and its territorial waters. The System which is expected to be southwest of Jamaica on Tuesday, and move over the island on Wednesday, currently has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours The forecast is for occasionally heavy showers and thunderstorms to impact the island particularly during the afternoon on Monday. On Tuesday through Thursday expect an increase in rainfall with possible stormy weather conditions developing by Wednesday
Fishers and other marine interests, especially those on the cays and banks, are strongly advised to exercise caution as the system remains over the area. All interests are urged to pay special attention to subsequent news releases from the Meteorological Service
Thanks that from the met service.
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Caribwxgirl
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This from the Jamaica Meteorological Service today.
October 21, 2012 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Area of Low Pressure south of Jamaica with a Tropical Wave moving into the western Caribbean.
Comment
The area of Low Pressure south of Jamaica is expected to become
a Tropical Cyclone by Tuesday afternoon south of Jamaica. The system stalls over the area but is pulled northeast by a Jet Stream which moves over the area.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This Morning… Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms.
This Afternoon… Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms across the island.
Tonight… Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Maximum temperatures expected today for:
Kingston... 31 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay...39 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Tue… Late Outbreaks of afternoon showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds mainly over eastern and central parishes. T.S. conditions likely.
Wed… Periods of early showers and thunderstorms across the island, heaviest over central and eastern parishes. Windy conditons over the island. Improves in evening.
Thu… Partly cloudy and windy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms over eastern parishes and inland areas.
Regionally…A Cold Front is over the western Caribbean with a Frontal Trough north of the area. A Tropical Wave is west of the island.
rar
October 21, 2012 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Area of Low Pressure south of Jamaica with a Tropical Wave moving into the western Caribbean.
Comment
The area of Low Pressure south of Jamaica is expected to become
a Tropical Cyclone by Tuesday afternoon south of Jamaica. The system stalls over the area but is pulled northeast by a Jet Stream which moves over the area.
24-HOUR FORECAST
This Morning… Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms.
This Afternoon… Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms across the island.
Tonight… Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Maximum temperatures expected today for:
Kingston... 31 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay...39 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Tue… Late Outbreaks of afternoon showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds mainly over eastern and central parishes. T.S. conditions likely.
Wed… Periods of early showers and thunderstorms across the island, heaviest over central and eastern parishes. Windy conditons over the island. Improves in evening.
Thu… Partly cloudy and windy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms over eastern parishes and inland areas.
Regionally…A Cold Front is over the western Caribbean with a Frontal Trough north of the area. A Tropical Wave is west of the island.
rar
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Caribwxgirl
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Severe Weather Alert has been issued by the Jamaica Meteorological Service
NEWS RELEASE
October 22, 2012 at 6 a.m..
*** SEVERE WEATHER ALERT***
***LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF JAMAICA LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TOMORROW***
The Meteorological Service has issued a severe weather alert, effective until 5 a.m. tomorrow.
The area of Low Pressure is southeast of Jamaica and drifts slowly toward the west today and tonight. It is expected to develop into a Tropical Storm over the next day or so as it remains southwest of Jamaica. The system passes over the island Tuesday night as it moves toward the north northeast. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to affect the island which may be heavy at times while strong gusty winds are also likely over Jamaica, beginning tomorrow morning.
In view of this projection, it may be necessary to issue an evacuation notice for marine areas later today. All fishers on the cays and banks are, therefore, urged to hasten preparations with a view to evacuate at short notice, if required.
With weather conditions expected to deteriorate due to the passage of the developing system, marine operators are urged not to venture far from the mainland.
All interests are urged to pay special attention to subsequent news releases from the Meteorological Service.
rar
NEWS RELEASE
October 22, 2012 at 6 a.m..
*** SEVERE WEATHER ALERT***
***LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF JAMAICA LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TOMORROW***
The Meteorological Service has issued a severe weather alert, effective until 5 a.m. tomorrow.
The area of Low Pressure is southeast of Jamaica and drifts slowly toward the west today and tonight. It is expected to develop into a Tropical Storm over the next day or so as it remains southwest of Jamaica. The system passes over the island Tuesday night as it moves toward the north northeast. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to affect the island which may be heavy at times while strong gusty winds are also likely over Jamaica, beginning tomorrow morning.
In view of this projection, it may be necessary to issue an evacuation notice for marine areas later today. All fishers on the cays and banks are, therefore, urged to hasten preparations with a view to evacuate at short notice, if required.
With weather conditions expected to deteriorate due to the passage of the developing system, marine operators are urged not to venture far from the mainland.
All interests are urged to pay special attention to subsequent news releases from the Meteorological Service.
rar
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather-TD 18 in SW Caribbean
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 78.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
JAMAICA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH JAMAICA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 78.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
JAMAICA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH JAMAICA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather-TD 18 in SW Caribbean
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 78.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 78.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather-TD 18 in SW Caribbean
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST MON OCT 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC MOVES TO THE EAST. TUTT TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN...NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS EASTERN CUBA AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS TOMORROW AFTERNOON DUE TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST ACTIVE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TODAY...BECOMING ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED TOMORROW
AS CAP INVERSION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WEATHER SCENARIO WILL CHANGE BY MIDWEEK AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS EASTERN CUBA AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
AT 2 PM AST...TD EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT
IN A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
AND HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ IN
SHRA/TSRA. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PASSING
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF`S SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS EASTERN CUBA AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 87 / 20 10 10 30
STT 78 87 78 87 / 30 20 30 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST MON OCT 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC MOVES TO THE EAST. TUTT TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN...NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS EASTERN CUBA AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS TOMORROW AFTERNOON DUE TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST ACTIVE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TODAY...BECOMING ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED TOMORROW
AS CAP INVERSION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WEATHER SCENARIO WILL CHANGE BY MIDWEEK AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS EASTERN CUBA AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
AT 2 PM AST...TD EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT
IN A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
AND HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ IN
SHRA/TSRA. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PASSING
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF`S SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS EASTERN CUBA AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 87 / 20 10 10 30
STT 78 87 78 87 / 30 20 30 30
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather- TS SANDY in SW Carib
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SANDY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 78.5W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA TONIGHT.
INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SANDY.
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SANDY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 78.5W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA TONIGHT.
INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SANDY.
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Caribwxgirl
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I know this but I just want to pretend I'm dreaming. Jamaica is a really small target for this storm.
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cycloneye
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Re:
Caribwxgirl wrote:I know this but I just want to pretend I'm dreaming. Jamaica is a really small target for this storm.
Yeah, look at the forecast track. I imagine the authorities there starting preparations right?
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Caribwxgirl
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Re: Re:
cycloneye wrote:Caribwxgirl wrote:I know this but I just want to pretend I'm dreaming. Jamaica is a really small target for this storm.
Yeah, look at the forecast track. I imagine the authorities there starting preparations right?
[]httpr://oi49.tinypic.com/t54z02.jpg[g]
Yes they have been the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management has put it's emergency action plan into action. They have also asked all in flood prone and low lying areas to evacuate early. Honestly now that its this close I feel sick! I'll post preps observation and such as soon as I get a hold of myself. My apartment complex lies within reasonable distance of one of the waterways (The Sandy Gully) a TD a few years back broke the gully and took a portion of our back wall. To date it's not been fully repaired and I'm anxious that I may end up being in a danger zone. Because of this I've felt paralyzed by fear all day. On top of this my 4 yr old is sick with fever so I've been home and have had enough time to read everything online and drive myself nuts!
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cycloneye
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Re: Re:
Caribwxgirl wrote:cycloneye wrote:Caribwxgirl wrote:I know this but I just want to pretend I'm dreaming. Jamaica is a really small target for this storm.
Yeah, look at the forecast track. I imagine the authorities there starting preparations right?
[]httpr://oi49.tinypic.com/t54z02.jpg[g]
Yes they have been the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management has put it's emergency action plan into action. They have also asked all in flood prone and low lying areas to evacuate early. Honestly now that its this close I feel sick! I'll post preps observation and such as soon as I get a hold of myself. My apartment complex lies within reasonable distance of one of the waterways (The Sandy Gully) a TD a few years back broke the gully and took a portion of our back wall. To date it's not been fully repaired and I'm anxious that I may end up being in a danger zone. Because of this I've felt paralyzed by fear all day. On top of this my 4 yr old is sick with fever so I've been home and have had enough time to read everything online and drive myself nuts!
Oh my. I say to you,get well very soon as you have to make personal preparations of your own. Hopefully,Sandy doesn't do harm to that island. I am always an optimist person.
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Caribwxgirl
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From Met Service at 4pm EDT
October 22, 2012 at 4:00 p.m.
WARNING MESSAGE (MARINE)
Fishers on the cays and banks are strongly advised to evacuate immediately and start returning to the mainland. Other small craft operators in our coastal waters are advised to return to port and
small craft operators who are in port are advised not to venture out.
vtj
It's my 4yr old daughter who is sick. Thanks for your positive thoughts.
October 22, 2012 at 4:00 p.m.
WARNING MESSAGE (MARINE)
Fishers on the cays and banks are strongly advised to evacuate immediately and start returning to the mainland. Other small craft operators in our coastal waters are advised to return to port and
small craft operators who are in port are advised not to venture out.
vtj
It's my 4yr old daughter who is sick. Thanks for your positive thoughts.
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Caribwxgirl
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October 22, 2012 at 5:00 p.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Tropical Storm Sandy 640 kilometres (398 miles) south southwest of Jamaica.
Comment
Comment… The Tropical Storm is expected to move over Jamaica by Wednesday morning. However, Tropical Storm conditions are expected across the island by Tuesday.
24-HOUR FORECAST
Tonight… Outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms with strong winds.
Tomorrow… Outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms with gale force winds.
Minimum temperatures expected tonight for:
Kingston... 24 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay...24 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Wed…Tropical Storm conditions with outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms.
Thu… Cloudy and windy with periods of showers and widely scattered thunderstorms.
Fri… Decreasingly cloudy and windy with widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Regionally…A Stationary Front is producing showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Bahamas.
vtj
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Tropical Storm Sandy 640 kilometres (398 miles) south southwest of Jamaica.
Comment
Comment… The Tropical Storm is expected to move over Jamaica by Wednesday morning. However, Tropical Storm conditions are expected across the island by Tuesday.
24-HOUR FORECAST
Tonight… Outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms with strong winds.
Tomorrow… Outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms with gale force winds.
Minimum temperatures expected tonight for:
Kingston... 24 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay...24 degrees Celsius
3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Wed…Tropical Storm conditions with outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms.
Thu… Cloudy and windy with periods of showers and widely scattered thunderstorms.
Fri… Decreasingly cloudy and windy with widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Regionally…A Stationary Front is producing showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Bahamas.
vtj
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather- TS SANDY in SW Carib
Be safe guys, hopefully won't be more than a rainy and breezy day, according to the HPC discussion our regions will be very wet early this week and rapid intensification could occur:
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012
AT 15UTC TD EIGHTEEN CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 78.0W...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 HPA. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 04KT.
DISCUSSION FROM OCT 22/00 UTC: THE NHC IS FORECASTING THE
DEPRESSION TO INITIALLY MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THEN
STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A DIGGING TROUGH ESTABLISHES TO THE
WEST...PROVIDING THE STEERING FLOW THAT WOULD ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO
SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS JAMAICA THROUGH 54-60 HRS. DUE TO THE SLOW
INITIAL MOTION...THEY EXPECT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT 18-24 HRS...AND COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER JAMAICA.
OUTER BAND CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO AFFECT JAMAICA-HAITIAN
PENINSULA THROUGH 36 HRS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM/DAY. BY 36-60 HRS...AS THE STORM NEARS
JAMAICA...THIS WILL INCREASE TO 75-125MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
250-300MM/DAY. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BUILDS NORTH INTO WESTERN CUBA
THROUGH 60-84 HRS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 150-200MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 350-500MM/DAY. FURTHERMORE...AS A LONG FETCH
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SHOW PERSISTENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM/DAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY LIKELY ACROSS PENINSULA DE BARAHONA OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO
EXCEED 500MM. THIS IS PARTICULARLY LIKELY ACROSS JAMAICA AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA DUE TO STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL/MECHANICAL
FORCING.
WEST OVER THE DOMAIN...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS IT IS TO CENTER AT
250 HPA ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER COLIMA/NAYARIT OVER SOUTHWEST
MEXICO. THIS RIDGE...AS IT HOLDS...IS TO FAVOR A SUBSIDENCE CAP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO...WHERE IT IS TO
INHIBIT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS...IT IS TO THEN FAVOR THE SOUTHWARD
AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF-YUCATAN TO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH WILL REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE THROUGH
60-72 HRS. AS IT AMPLIFIES...THE TROUGH WILL FOCUS ITS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH STRONG
INFLOW OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY EXPECTED THROUGH 36-42 HRS. THIS WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION...WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL-WESTERN CUBA
EARLY THIS CYCLE TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. OTHER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO TO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH TROUGH ALOFT TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN VERACRUZ-CAMPECHE-CHIAPAS IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY BY 36 HRS. ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY THROUGH 60-72 HRS.
SOME INTERACTION IS POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...AS THE TROUGH
ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ AS THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE MEANDERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. INITIALLY EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ACROSS
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA TO PANAMA. THROUGH 48-60 HRS THIS IS
TO INCREASE TO 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM/DAY. MODELS SHOW
MOST ACTIVE ON PACIFIC COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
FURTHERMORE...THE STORM...AS IT BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...IS
MODULATING THE ITCZ NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS...WHERE WE EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY. BUT AS
THE CYCLONE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...CONVECTION IN THIS AREA IS
LIKELY TO WANE...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM/DAY. ACROSS COLOMBIA TO NORTHWEST/CENTRAL VENEZUELA
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY.
ON THE PACIFIC PLAINS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA/EJE CAFETERO EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRESS AGAINST
CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL/
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS RIDGE IS VENTING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH TD-EIGHTEEN. ALSO AT
UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT REMAINS EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...WITH
BROAD CIRCULATION NOW EXPANDING BETWEEN 62W-40W AS IT CENTERS ON A
LOW NEAR 22N 49W. CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO ORGANIZE AROUND THIS
SYSTEM...AND COULD EVOLVE INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS INDICATED
BY THE NHC. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES LIE ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE
OF THE TROUGH/RIDGE PAIR. THIS IS INHIBITING ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO NORTHEAST VENEZUELA. THE CELL OF THE
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO HOLD RELATIVELY FLAT OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS. AXIS IS TO THEN BUILD NORTH INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE/LONG WAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHES FARTHER
TO THE WEST.
AT LOW/MID LEVELS...EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO INITIALLY
DOMINATE...WITH WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10-15KT. DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL CONCENTRATE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA...WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME WIDELY ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS CAP
INVERSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THROUGH 60-72 HRS...AS THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS...WINDS
ARE TO QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. GFS INITIALLY SHOWS
PWAT OF 35-40MM. BUT...AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...IT THEN
SHOWS A RAPID SURGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THAT PERIOD
PWAT INCREASES TO 50-60MM. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BECOMES PLENTIFUL...
MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO/USVI-LESSER
ANTILLES. LOOKS LIKE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS TO MANIFEST AS
HIGH CI/CS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BLOCKING SOLAR RADIATION AND
INHIBITING THE SEA BREEZE CYCLE.
SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012
AT 15UTC TD EIGHTEEN CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 78.0W...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 HPA. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 04KT.
DISCUSSION FROM OCT 22/00 UTC: THE NHC IS FORECASTING THE
DEPRESSION TO INITIALLY MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THEN
STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A DIGGING TROUGH ESTABLISHES TO THE
WEST...PROVIDING THE STEERING FLOW THAT WOULD ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO
SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS JAMAICA THROUGH 54-60 HRS. DUE TO THE SLOW
INITIAL MOTION...THEY EXPECT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT 18-24 HRS...AND COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER JAMAICA.
OUTER BAND CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO AFFECT JAMAICA-HAITIAN
PENINSULA THROUGH 36 HRS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM/DAY. BY 36-60 HRS...AS THE STORM NEARS
JAMAICA...THIS WILL INCREASE TO 75-125MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
250-300MM/DAY. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BUILDS NORTH INTO WESTERN CUBA
THROUGH 60-84 HRS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 150-200MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 350-500MM/DAY. FURTHERMORE...AS A LONG FETCH
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SHOW PERSISTENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM/DAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY LIKELY ACROSS PENINSULA DE BARAHONA OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO
EXCEED 500MM. THIS IS PARTICULARLY LIKELY ACROSS JAMAICA AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA DUE TO STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL/MECHANICAL
FORCING.
WEST OVER THE DOMAIN...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS IT IS TO CENTER AT
250 HPA ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER COLIMA/NAYARIT OVER SOUTHWEST
MEXICO. THIS RIDGE...AS IT HOLDS...IS TO FAVOR A SUBSIDENCE CAP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO...WHERE IT IS TO
INHIBIT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS...IT IS TO THEN FAVOR THE SOUTHWARD
AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF-YUCATAN TO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH WILL REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE THROUGH
60-72 HRS. AS IT AMPLIFIES...THE TROUGH WILL FOCUS ITS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH STRONG
INFLOW OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY EXPECTED THROUGH 36-42 HRS. THIS WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION...WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL-WESTERN CUBA
EARLY THIS CYCLE TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. OTHER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO TO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH TROUGH ALOFT TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN VERACRUZ-CAMPECHE-CHIAPAS IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY BY 36 HRS. ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY THROUGH 60-72 HRS.
SOME INTERACTION IS POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...AS THE TROUGH
ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ AS THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE MEANDERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. INITIALLY EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ACROSS
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA TO PANAMA. THROUGH 48-60 HRS THIS IS
TO INCREASE TO 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM/DAY. MODELS SHOW
MOST ACTIVE ON PACIFIC COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
FURTHERMORE...THE STORM...AS IT BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...IS
MODULATING THE ITCZ NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS...WHERE WE EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY. BUT AS
THE CYCLONE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...CONVECTION IN THIS AREA IS
LIKELY TO WANE...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM/DAY. ACROSS COLOMBIA TO NORTHWEST/CENTRAL VENEZUELA
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY.
ON THE PACIFIC PLAINS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA/EJE CAFETERO EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRESS AGAINST
CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL/
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS RIDGE IS VENTING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH TD-EIGHTEEN. ALSO AT
UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT REMAINS EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...WITH
BROAD CIRCULATION NOW EXPANDING BETWEEN 62W-40W AS IT CENTERS ON A
LOW NEAR 22N 49W. CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO ORGANIZE AROUND THIS
SYSTEM...AND COULD EVOLVE INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS INDICATED
BY THE NHC. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES LIE ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE
OF THE TROUGH/RIDGE PAIR. THIS IS INHIBITING ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO NORTHEAST VENEZUELA. THE CELL OF THE
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO HOLD RELATIVELY FLAT OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS. AXIS IS TO THEN BUILD NORTH INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE/LONG WAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHES FARTHER
TO THE WEST.
AT LOW/MID LEVELS...EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO INITIALLY
DOMINATE...WITH WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10-15KT. DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL CONCENTRATE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA...WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME WIDELY ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS CAP
INVERSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THROUGH 60-72 HRS...AS THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS...WINDS
ARE TO QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. GFS INITIALLY SHOWS
PWAT OF 35-40MM. BUT...AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...IT THEN
SHOWS A RAPID SURGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THAT PERIOD
PWAT INCREASES TO 50-60MM. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BECOMES PLENTIFUL...
MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO/USVI-LESSER
ANTILLES. LOOKS LIKE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS TO MANIFEST AS
HIGH CI/CS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BLOCKING SOLAR RADIATION AND
INHIBITING THE SEA BREEZE CYCLE.
SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)
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cycloneye
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather- TS SANDY in SW Carib
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012
...SANDY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 78.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA TONIGHT.
INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SANDY.
TROPICAL STORM SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012
...SANDY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 78.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA TONIGHT.
INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SANDY.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather- TS SANDY in SW Carib
This is a person in Jamaica reporting at stormcarib.com. There are web cams there and are added to the first post of this thread.
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/jamaica.shtml
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/jamaica.shtml
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Caribwxgirl
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 287
- Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:25 pm
- Location: Budapest, Hungary (from Kingston, Jamaica)
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather- TS SANDY in SW Carib
cycloneye wrote:This is a person in Jamaica reporting at stormcarib.com. There are web cams there and are added to the first post of this thread.
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/jamaica.shtml
Yeah I saw that when I was searching for webcams but its at the opposite end if the island from me.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Caribwxgirl
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 287
- Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:25 pm
- Location: Budapest, Hungary (from Kingston, Jamaica)
This would be a good one close to me if its working http://go-jamaica.com/webcam/
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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