ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Seeing a strengthening UL PV anomaly south of the LLC.

Would explain the drop off in rain rate the last few hours.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... bean.0.jpg

[cycloneye]

From Miami NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ON THE EVOLUTION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
LOCAL AREA TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED OVER THE
UPCOMING 2 TO 3 DAYS AND INDICATES SANDY CONTINUING NORTH OVER
EASTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...PROBABILITIES OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS (39 MPH)
BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE MAIN IMPACTS DURING THIS LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN OVER THESE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COASTAL LOCATIONS AS WINDS...SEAS...SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
INCREASE. BEACH EROSION ALONG WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BECOME CONCERNS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IF THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY VERIFY. AS A RESULT...A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...INTERESTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EAST COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AS
WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS. UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS TIME REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME AS ANY
SHIFT IN THE TRACK TO THE EAST OR WEST OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
COULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SCENARIO.

[sunnyday]

I have to say once again that Florida looks like a sitting duck or a target sticking out between the Atlantic and the Gulf. What is strange is that so many storms go out of their way to miss Florida. People there must be living right.
(Yes, I know they have experienced several bad storms such as Andrew, but they have been missed so many times, thankfully).

[longislandguy]

I really hope this storm turns out to sea. My wedding is Sunday on Long Island. Talk about adding stress to my week!

[GCANE]

I really hope this storm turns out to sea. My wedding is Sunday on Long Island. Talk about adding stress to my week!

Congrats!

Would be pretty cool to say "I got married in the storm of the century"

For myself, I was married in a blizzard.

[gatorcane]

what will be interesting is what this system does when it gets near Jamaica. I have seen some strange movements with prior systems when storms approach the island. In this case maybe it will jog more east and move around the island?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 77.6W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

[gatorcane]

Latest advisory:

"INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY."

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=114042

[cycloneye]

[sunnyday]

I hate to ask, but what is South Florida? Is it the Keys and Miami only, or is Palm Beach County part of it? Thank you for your reply.

[CrazyC83]

I hate to ask, but what is South Florida? Is it the Keys and Miami only, or is Palm Beach County part of it? Thank you for your reply.

I would say Palm Beach would be included.

[sunnyday]

Thank you. I have family down that way.

[Bocadude85]

I hate to ask, but what is South Florida? Is it the Keys and Miami only, or is Palm Beach County part of it? Thank you for your reply.

Southeast Florida is Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade Counties

[Bocadude85]

Looks like we could be going under a TS Watch later tonight

THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXPANDING WIND RADII SUGGEST THAT A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
AND THE KEYS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/232035.shtml?

[WYNweather]

Latest advisory:

"INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY."

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=114042

Sounds about right Boat show weekend. NHC has Just CYA.

[floridasun78]

THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXPANDING WIND RADII SUGGEST THAT A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
AND THE KEYS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

[jaxfladude]

THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXPANDING WIND RADII SUGGEST THAT A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
AND THE KEYS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

Not good. Could have been worse, but prayers to all impacted by Sandy.

[Caribwxgirl]

what will be interesting is what this system does when it gets near Jamaica. I have seen some strange movements with prior systems when storms approach the island. In this case maybe it will jog more east and move around the island?

You are right. Many times out of the blue storms approaching abruptly change at the last minute. Hence so many here take this system for a joke.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM SANDY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
536 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS BEYOND
THE REEF SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINERS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
OF MONROE COUNTY AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ONLY FOR FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS BEYOND THE REEF SOUTHEAST OF THE
UPPER KEYS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.3N...LONGITUDE 77.6W. THIS WAS ABOUT 760 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FL...OR ABOUT 780 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OCEAN REEF FL. STORM MOTION WAS NNE OR
20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CURRENTLY THERE ARE NO LAND AREAS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER KEYS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THOSE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW YOUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISASTER PLAN AND BECOME READY TO ACT IF A WATCH OR
A WARNING IS LATER ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION
FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE
TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN
FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT FOR THOSE INTERESTS
ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR
CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM
SANDY TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN KEY WEST SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL IMPORTANT
DETAILS REGARDING TROPICAL STORM SANDY AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON THE FLORIDA KEYS.

[jlauderdal]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM SANDY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
557 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ATLANTIC WATERS AND BISCAYNE
BAY...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO OCEAN REEF OUT 60 NM
AS WELL AS BISCAYNE BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES...POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM RELATED HAZARDS ARE STILL A
CONCERN. IN FACT, A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY TONIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.3N...LONGITUDE 77.6W. THIS WAS ABOUT 870 MILES SOUTH
OF WEST PALM BEACH FL...OR ABOUT 830 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
FORT LAUDERDALE FL...OR ABOUT 810 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI
FL. STORM MOTION WAS NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE
TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN FOR
TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE
LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MIGHT BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...