ATL: SANDY - Models

[tolakram]

Here's the hard left turn.

[tolakram]

192

[jlauderdal]

Good grief

saved image

think there will be some cold air coming down the backside of that monster..

[Aric Dunn]

12z cmc come left. very near south florida. wobbles wnw to nw like the gfs and euro just sooner.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

12z cmc come left. very near south florida. wobbles wnw to nw like the gfs and euro just sooner.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Wow that is VERY close to SE Florida....if the ECMWF shifts left also, NHC will be forced to shift the track more left again at 5pm EST closer to South Florida.

Aric what kind of winds would you think would we see in SE Florida with it that close?

EDIT: looks like it clobbers the NE CONUS on this run.

[artist]

Good grief

saved image

think there will be some cold air coming down the backside of that monster..

yeah, I was thinking the same, just as Wilma did, if I recall correctly.

[Blown Away]

12z cmc come left. very near south florida. wobbles wnw to nw like the gfs and euro just sooner.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Wow that is VERY close to SE Florida....if the ECMWF shifts left also, NHC will be forced to shift the track more left again at 5pm EST closer to South Florida.

Aric what kind of winds would you think would we see in SE Florida with it that close?

I posted this a few pages back, but the GFS shifted a little left on the 12Z, the model tracks appear to shift left when the forward speed is increased.

[jlauderdal]

Good grief

saved image

think there will be some cold air coming down the backside of that monster..

yeah, I was thinking the same, just as Wilma did, if I recall correctly.

yep, wilma came through and so did the cold air which was great since i didnt have power for 11 days, first 5 it was cool outside then it warmed up then we checked into a hotel..

[Aric Dunn]

12z cmc come left. very near south florida. wobbles wnw to nw like the gfs and euro just sooner.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Wow that is VERY close to SE Florida....if the ECMWF shifts left also, NHC will be forced to shift the track more left again at 5pm EST closer to South Florida.

Aric what kind of winds would you think would we see in SE Florida with it that close?

EDIT: looks like it clobbers the NE CONUS on this run.

if the euro shifts to much more to the left it too will be aproaching the coast.. as for winds. that depends on what cuba does. but if the models are correct and the convection is on the west side and its as strong as they say then its not out the realm of possibility to see hurricane conditions given the size even if its over the bahamas.

[JC380]

Here's the hard left turn.

So, this could potentially be a repeat of the Halloween Nor'easter of 91?

[adam0983]

I am waiting to see what the Euro model will show this afternoon. If it shifts closer to Florida do you think Hurricane watches or Warnings will be needed?

[brunota2003]

Hour 174 (10/31) has that low sitting right over top of me. Irene last year, I leave upstate NY in a couple weeks...looks like the tropics are trying to give me a goodbye present...one that isn't very welcomed. And 174 hours isn't in La la land any more.

[Evil Jeremy]

HWRF significant west shift in the short term, has Sandy moving over Grand Bahama Island: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... est054.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

I am waiting to see what the Euro model will show this afternoon. If it shifts closer to Florida do you think Hurricane watches or Warnings will be needed?

Hard to have either of those when they expect it to be a TS as it passes by..

[Evil Jeremy]

I am waiting to see what the Euro model will show this afternoon. If it shifts closer to Florida do you think Hurricane watches or Warnings will be needed?

Hard to have either of those when they expect it to be a TS as it passes by..

They could put up a Hurricane Watch even if they expect a TS. Bahamas have a H-watch right now.

[cycloneye]

FYI=I am posting the models when they reach the timeframe of approaching New England at the Winter forum New England thread.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=113752&hilit=&p=2282962#p2282962

[Dean4Storms]

I think as it stands right now that SE Florida could see 50-60mph winds with gusts in stronger squalls near 70mph. This could easily increase if the Sandy is stronger than forecast or moves closer to the coast than what most of the guidance suggests ignoring NGP.

This is just my amateur opinion and you should rely on official sources for all your Info.!!

[Bocadude85]

I am waiting to see what the Euro model will show this afternoon. If it shifts closer to Florida do you think Hurricane watches or Warnings will be needed?

Hard to have either of those when they expect it to be a TS as it passes by..

They could put up a Hurricane Watch even if they expect a TS. Bahamas have a H-watch right now.

Thats only about 100 miles offshore of SE Fla

[Blown Away]

Nogaps, in at Miami and out near WPB. It's by itself with this idea.

[Evil Jeremy]

EURO and GFDL are now rolling