ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[dexterlabio]

We've been in warm neutral and I now think it will continue throughout the rest of the year, and the Nino forecasts earlier this year made people think the Atlantic season would be a dead one, but I believe this is already proven wrong. This year turned out more like 2008 with warm neutral but never reaching El Nino threshold..not until summer of the following year. So I guess if there's no El Nino appearing this year, there is a chance of it appearing next year instead, no?



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data.

[Kingarabian]

We've been in warm neutral and I now think it will continue throughout the rest of the year, and the Nino forecasts earlier this year made people think the Atlantic season would be a dead one, but I believe this is already proven wrong. This year turned out more like 2008 with warm neutral but never reaching El Nino threshold..not until summer of the following year. So I guess if there's no El Nino appearing this year, there is a chance of it appearing next year instead, no?



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data.

Unless something happens to the -PDO, I doubt.

[Ntxw]

Unless something happens the next 3 days, we should go up from the 0.3c.

Last Week


This Week

[Ntxw]

We now have 3C+ in the sub-surface. It's the warmest it has been all season and the last time it was this warm was back in 2010.

[South Texas Storms]

So does this mean we have a better chance of seeing a weak Nino this winter?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:

So does this mean we have a better chance of seeing a weak Nino this winter?

It depends on the wind patterns at the surface. It keeps taking a step forward and two steps back so I can't say for sure. But at the very least, the thermocline slope allows for warming when favorable. The warming began before last update, next update should continue that process, but whether it will stay that way is to be seen long term.

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:

So does this mean we have a better chance of seeing a weak Nino this winter?

It depends on the wind patterns at the surface. It keeps taking a step forward and two steps back so I can't say for sure. But at the very least, the thermocline slope allows for warming when favorable. The warming began before last update, next update should continue that process, but whether it will stay that way is to be seen long term.

But isn't the only way for all that warm water in the sub-surface to go is up?

[Ntxw]

But isn't the only way for all that warm water in the sub-surface to go is up?

In theory yes, if westerlies persist then it will. Easterlies can force back the pool and we continue the fight between the two. Right now the warm pool is larger so it's tougher to retreat. It's not water actually boiling down there, it's movement of the warm wpac waters east (when it moves back west, we see cooling) and since the ocean is shallower in the eastern basin it's forced up if the warm pool is significant.

La Nina the warm pool is over in the far west



El Nino it is further to the east

[cycloneye]

If you look at this subsurface loop,the blues shrink a lot. Let's see what occurs in the next week or two.

[Portastorm]

Very interesting. There does seem to be a growing chorus of weather voices saying Nino may be making a comeback. Perhaps we'll see a weak Nino after all this winter.

[Ntxw]

If you look at this subsurface loop,the blues shrink a lot. Let's see what occurs in the next week or two.

That animation is not up to date like the TAO/Triton is. Since the 20th the most significant warming and expanse has occured. It will show pockets of 3, even 4 c underneath 160-120w and between 100m and 200m+ depth if it is run forward to the 27th+

[Kingarabian]

If you look at this subsurface loop,the blues shrink a lot. Let's see what occurs in the next week or two.

That animation is not up to date like the TAO/Triton is. Since the 20th the most significant warming and expanse has occured. It will show pockets of 3, even 4 c underneath 160-120w and between 100m and 200m+ depth if it is run forward to the 27th+

Wow. Okay, this should make an interesting few weeks.

[Ntxw]

Another 0.2c warm up and 3.4 is now back to 0.5c

[Ntxw]

This week is advertising another warm up in enso 3.4 and 4. There is still a small cool pocket bound by 0-10S east of 140W. However, westerlies have occurred there and been chipping away at it for several days while 0.5-1c anomalies dominates all the other areas. My guess is another warm up of 0.1-0.3 for the next update and end up somewhere between 0.6 to 0.8C. We still need to stay around 0.8c or greater for a couple of weeks to even out the previous cooling period and still end up with a weak Nino for the average. Certainly still a decent chance with such warm sub-surface temperatures.



3-4C under 3.4 still persists and has been expanding

[Kingarabian]

Thanks for the update Ntxw.

[Ntxw]

Two steps forward one step back continues. 3.4 cooled to around 0.4c based on the chart from cpc. Time is running out if we are to get any official El Nino.

[dexterlabio]

^Thanks for the updates. That's what I always get during the past months when I expected a steady trend towards El Nino but it kept stepping back. So the trend continues...towards the uncertain..

Ntxw...if we don't see an official El Nino this year, do you think there's a chance for it to develop next year, say during Spring or Summer 2013? Thanks for any reply!

[cycloneye]

Here is the CPC 11/5/12 update. As our friend Ntxw said,Nino 3.4 cooled a little bit.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Ntxw...if we don't see an official El Nino this year, do you think there's a chance for it to develop next year, say during Spring or Summer 2013? Thanks for any reply!

Do not think so. If we had a strong enough Nino this year (doesn't appear so) and it flipped the PDO to very positive then the odds of a weaker second year Nino would have been better. Even though the PDO has risen it's been a battle, and eventually the cold PDO will win out again. La Nina probably has the best chance by next summer with cold neutral being second highest. Warm neutral and El Nino's don't usually last more than a 7-9 months in the cold PDO.

[Kingarabian]

This is so depressing.