ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[xironman]

well wxman57 i respect all your forecasts on here but according to our mets the worst will be this aft/tonight they are only calling for winds to possible tropical storm strength and sustained winds of 25/30 and they are calling for winds tomorrow only to be 15/25 mph gust to 30 so they must see something different.........just my opinion

Those winds are way too low. You may have TS winds though noon tomorrow.

NWS seems pretty serious

Code: Select all

MAZ006-007-013>024-RIZ001>008-291630-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0004.121029T1000Z-121030T1000Z/
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
NANTUCKET MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-
WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-
NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...FOXBORO...
NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...
PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...
FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...FOSTER...
SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...
NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
427 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS COAST.

* HAZARD...DAMAGING WINDS.

* WINDS...EAST 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS
  FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY EXISTS.
  DAMAGING WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES THAT
  COULD LAST FOR DAYS...DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES AND HOMES...AND
  DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. DEBRIS AND DOWNED TREES COULD IN
  SOME CASES BLOCK ROADWAYS.


[tolakram]

Latest

[msbee]

FYI
live Sandy Cam
http://new.livestream.com/breakingliven ... me_oneline

[cjrciadt]

Thanks for those pics GoneBabyGone, thinking of all my family, friends in NYC and NJ.

[yzerfan]

One of the other amazing things about this storm... and there are MANY!... is the incredible ways the models nailed this truly COMPLEX scenario so perfectly early on. I can't remember when I've seen a forecast verify so nearly perfectly close to 5 days out.

It's sad to see the strengthening and pressure drop, knowing the impact they will cause. But these WERE forecast.

I remember a few days back someone posting a link to the reports to the really huge number of weather balloons they were releasing across the lower 48 in order to try to gather the most and best data to feed into the model runs. They weren't going to get it wrong because of a lack of information.

[GoneBabyGone]

Thanks for those pics GoneBabyGone, thinking of all my family, friends in NYC and NJ.

I'll keep em coming. I wonder if the clock will make it through. I doubt that construction equipment right behind it will.

[GoneBabyGone]

First time I've ever seen whitecaps on this part of the Hudson.

[cjrciadt]

Battery Park looks already like Irene!! on Cnbc atm

[adam0983]

What kind of wind is exepcted in Staten Island, New York and how bad will the surge of water be there?

[chrisjslucia]

May seem a strange source - a UK newspaper - but this live video from Point Pleasant, NJ (first video on page) is pretty impressive:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -live.html

[CapeCodDave]

first time poster from a long-time fan of this forum...thanks for the great information and technical introduction to the models

Current conditions are a steady 20 kn out of the northeast here on the southside of Cape Cod -- drizzling, some hints of brightness in the sky. Expecting a peak gust of 70 mph around 1700m and sustained winds around the 40s according to NWS. This afternoon should be interesting and I expect to lose power sometime after noon.

I've got a 33' sailboat still in the water -- scheduled to be hauled this coming Friday by the boatyard -- so she has to ride it out on a 2,000 lb, storm mooring. I stripped the sails on Friday and battened her down on Saturday, hauled the motorboat and dinghy then cleaned the gutters. I'm 54 and been through a lot of hits and misses when it comes to storms and Sandy feels like it is going to be a healthy long blow for us, but I don't foresee any major messes like Bob in 91 as we're on the northern edge of the wind field.

The general consensus of the local wharf rats is an inch or two of rain and longer duration of winds than we had during Irene. Some mega tides on the highs at noon and midnight, but not enough boats in the harbor to blow ashore.

I work in NYC and am supposed to drive down tomorrow morning and have a meeting in Philly on Wednesday. Right now I assume both are off and intend to work from home this week, chainsaw at hand if needed.

Best of luck to those in Delaware, New Jersey, and New York. I'll post more if things get interesting around here this afternoon and evening. Power willing

[HenkL]

Latest pressure: 945

[Bergnj]

First time posting here. I am in Northern NJ. Just saw this on the NWS warnings. Shows this mornings tide levels & flood category so far. Pretty scary stuff.

WATER LEVELS FOR THIS MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE

...NY HARBOR WATER LEVELS FOR THIS MORNING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)....................

THE BATTERY NYC.....831 AM.........9.0.............MODERATE..
BERGEN POINT NY.....830 AM.........9.9.............MODERATE..

...WESTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR THIS MORNING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)....................

KINGS POINT NY......1159 AM........12.8............MODERATE..
LATTINGTOWN NY......1158 AM........12.9............MODERATE..
STAMFORD CT.........1131 AM........12.6............MODERATE..
BRIDGEPORT CT.......1128 AM........12.1............MODERATE..
NEW HAVEN CT........1128 AM........11.0............MODERATE..

...EASTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR THIS MORNING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)....................

NEW LONDON CT.......928 AM.........6.3.............MODERATE..

...SOUTH SHORE BAYS WATER LEVELS FOR THIS MORNING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
..................................(MLLW/NGVD)................

E ROCKAWAY INLET NY.814 AM.........8.0/6.5.........MAJOR.....
FREEPORT GAGE NY....858 AM.........7.8/7.0.........MAJOR.....
JAMAICA BAY NY......840 AM.........9.3/7.1.........MODERATE..
ROCKAWAY INLET NY...800 AM.........9.0/7.5.........MODERATE..
POINT LOOKOUT.......741 AM.........7.7/6.6.........MODERATE..
LINDENHURST........1021 AM.........5.1/5.3.........MAJOR.....


...OCEAN WATER LEVELS FOR THIS MORNING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)....................

MONTAUK POINT NY....903 AM.........5.9.............MODERATE..


WATER LEVELS FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE

...NY HARBOR WATER LEVELS FOR THIS EVENING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)....................

THE BATTERY NYC.....813 PM.........10-12.............MAJOR....
BERGEN POINT NY.....814 PM.........12-13.............MAJOR....

...WESTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR TONIGHT...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)....................

KINGS POINT NY......1227 AM........15-16............MAJOR....
LATTINGTOWN NY......1205 AM........15-16............MAJOR....
STAMFORD CT.........1201 AM........14-15............MAJOR....
BRIDGEPORT CT.......1158 PM........14-15............MAJOR....
NEW HAVEN CT........1157 PM........13-14............MAJOR....

...EASTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR THIS EVENING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)....................

NEW LONDON CT.......952 PM.........8.5-9.5..........MAJOR....

...SOUTH SHORE BAYS WATER LEVELS FOR THIS EVENING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
..................................(MLLW/NGVD)................

E ROCKAWAY INLET NY..814 PM.........12/10.5.........MAJOR....
FREEPORT GAGE NY.....858 PM.........11/10.2.........MAJOR....
JAMAICA BAY NY.......900 PM.......12.2/10...........MAJOR....
ROCKAWAY INLET NY....820 PM.......11.5/9.5..........MAJOR....
POINT LOOKOUT........801 PM.........11/9.9..........MAJOR....
LINDENHURST.........1041 PM.......8.4/8.6...........MAJOR....

...OCEAN WATER LEVELS FOR TONIGHT...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)....................

MONTAUK POINT NY.....923 PM.........7.5-8.5..........MAJOR...

$$

[greels]

Monday morning.....we are in Somerset, town adjacent to Fall River(referred to as Southcoast).....about 1/4 mile from water, but located on incline.....winds have picked up considerably and raining off and on with lulls....told the worst will begin come noon time today. Husband, commercial diver who is working in Buzzards Bay "drug up" (diver lingo...) late Friday and crew returned to land. Glad he will be home with me when storm draws closer.
My poor little pup, still being antsy and clingy as I suspect from drop in barometric pressure

To all in path...please remain safe & use common sense.

[hurricanekid416]

im here in northern delaware and outside it looks like we have gusts up to tropical storm force can anyone confirm that

[Terry]

Fourteen people rescued from the HMS Bounty. Three still missing... So, so sad to lose this ship, not to mention if these people are not found alive.

[Evil Jeremy]

Per recon, pressure is now down to about 943mb...

[tolakram]

945MB from the VDM

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone know what buoy Joe. B is talking about here on twitter?

The site http://crownweather.com has a ne data buoy site with a buoy south of Block I that has had wind gusts to 113kts.Current gust : 94

[KBBOCA]

Per recon, pressure is now down to about 943mb...

Am I correct in remembering that the record low pressure for most of this area is 942 from the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane?