Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

West Indies: presumed missing at sea, they return to the port safely
AFP 29.10.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 192120.php

Six or seven French are missing at sea between Martinique and Dominica since Sunday evening, learned Monday AFP the Ministry of transportation, which said that the swell was high after the passage of Hurricane Sandy. -(Naval Research Laboratory/AFP)

Six French which feared the disappearance in a sea agitated between Dominica and Martinique returned Monday safely to their home port in the French Department, without suspecting the exposures fright and the means deployed to search for them.
Research had been undertaken Monday after that the companion of one of the men was concerned do not see return Sunday night. The sea was still "dangerous" and the area of Martinique placed in yellow vigilance Monday, according to weather France, after the passage of Hurricane Sandy.
The Group of thirty-somethings, two women and four men, were gone Friday attend a music festival in a stadium in Roseau, the capital of Dominica, anglophone island located about 30 kilometres from Martinique.
They had used a large zodiac belonging to one of them to get to the 16th edition of the World Creole Music Festival, where should such occur Damian Marley, a son of Bob Marley, and figures of zouk, as Tanya Saint Val or group Zouk Machine, very popular in the West Indies.
The festival was held during three nights, from Friday evening to Sunday evening included, according to its website. It is at this stage that the misunderstanding could be completed.
Cosmy to Trinity Harbour, on the Atlantic coast of Martinique (East), where the Zodiac has his ring, a fisherman had to return the Group of friends. "They were particularly worried, they said that they were to arrive Monday in the day", this fisherman, Philippe Eraclide, told an AFP correspondent.
In fact, "they left Dominica at 11: 00 local (16 H 00 in Paris) and arrived without encumbrances, it has had no problem", told AFP the Antilles Guyane (operational regional Centre for monitoring and rescue) Cross who came to speak on the phone with them shortly after 14 H 00 (19 H 00 in Paris).
In the meantime, it is the general mobilization: information from the Department of transportation showing French "disappeared at sea", sending an aircraft type Cessna and customs of a helicopter of civil safety above the canal along the Martinique and Dominica. Alert messages had been disseminated to vessels passing through the area.
During the few hours of uncertainty, it was not possible to know whether the six people - fallen down to cell phone battery - had left Dominica. The Cross also remained in contact with the authorities of the former nearby British possession to try to clarify this point.
Hurricane Sandy, who is raging in the Atlantic and made dozens of dead in the Caribbean, was demoted to storm tropical Saturday. It goes back to the North, along the coast of the United States where the State of emergency was declared.

[cycloneye]

Gusty,that is very good news that all are safe.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1049 PM AST MON OCT 29 2012

.UPDATE...SKIES WERE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS WITH NO PRECIPITATION OBSERVED OR REPORTED OVER
LAND. WINDS OVER LAND BECAME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.
LATEST TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING ALSO SUGGEST DIMINISHING SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVEL AS THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES MORE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH CONTINUED
TO BUILD FURTHER WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...AS
THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND THE NOW POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY
CONTINUED TO PULL FURTHER NORTHWARDS FROM THE LOCAL REGION. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT OR LONG TERM FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH LOOKED GOOD FOR NOW.

MARINE UPDATE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS GENERATED FROM
SANDY CONTINUE TO PEAK DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL THEREFORE
PERSIST ALONG THE WEST THROUGH NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING COASTLINES
OF PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN UNTIL AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL THE WATERS.

LOCAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST SEAS FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN 8 TO 12 FEET WITH PERIODS BETWEEN 12 TO 16 SECONDS...WHILE
OFFSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM 41046 AND 41043 AS WELL AS 41044
ALSO SUGGEST CONTINUED FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN 12 TO 14 FEET WITH
PERIODS BETWEEN 12-16 SECONDS. THIS WOULD ALL SUGGEST SWELL DECAY
HEIGHTS AND BREAKING WAVES TO REMAIN WELL WITHIN HIGH SURF AND
COASTAL FLOOD CRITERIA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE THE
HIGH SURF WARNING AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS UPDATED AND WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL NOON AST TUESDAY.

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: Gusty,that is very good news that all are safe.

Thanks to you , i'm very happy about that. What's are the latest news en la isla del encanto? Things are improving in terms of swell?What is the situation?

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Still the seas are very high here.


.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EAST OF THE ISLANDS
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EVEN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT DECREASE IN MAX TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE
MEANTIME...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME OVER
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO.

COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE BY
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES OVER THE REGION.
PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK...WITH THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB EXPECTED TO DROP NEAR 322K BY
THURSDAY. ALL THESE FACTOR...WILL RESULT IN LESS CHANCES OF
SHOWERS NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN THE LONG
TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.


.AVIATION...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER A
MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. BUT CONDS ARE RELATIVELY DRY BTWN
6-25 KFT. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH THE
FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS...AFT 30/17Z MTN OBSCURATIONS ISLAND-WIDE AND
BRIEF MVFR DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND AT TJBQ/TJBQ AND VCNTY. LLVL WINDS SE-S ARND
10 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...REFER TO LATEST MARINE AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR
LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 88 77 / 50 0 10 20
STT 88 78 87 78 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST TUE OCT 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRESENCE OF THIS RIDGE AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST
UNTIL WEDNESDAY. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND PREVAILING WINDS BECOME MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PREVAILING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTNUED TO TRANSPORT OCCASIONAL FRAGMENTS OF TROPICAL MOSITURE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS FAIRLY MOIST FLOW ALONG WITH LOCAL AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS WAS SUFFICEINT TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AND PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MEANWHILE
LITTLE OR NOW CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS CLOUDS
DEVELOPED BUT QUICKLY STREAMED NORTHWARDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LAND TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AND
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LIMIT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AN EVEN DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION AND LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ONLY PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING
PASSING SHWOERS...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN ISOLATED AREAS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF
SITES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
AND AROUND TJBQ. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR THROUGH 30/21Z. SE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY EAST AT AROUND 10 KTS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...THE NORTHWEST SWELLS GENERATED BY SANDY PEAKED EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ARE NOW SLOWLY SUBSIDING. ALTHOUGH SWELLS PEAKED...BUOYS
41115 AND 41053 AS WELL AS 41043 ALL MEASURED SWELL HEIGHT BETWEEN 8
AND 11 FEET WITH PERIODS OF 12 TO 15 SECONDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHT BETWEEN 12 AND 17 FEET...AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN
EXPOSED AREAS. AS A RESULT...THE LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL CREATE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS...AS WELL AS COASTAL
FLOODING ESPECIALLY AT HIGH TIDES AND IN THE MOST VULNERABLE LOW
LYING AND EXPOSED AREAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT
FOR THE LOCAL WATERS. FOR THIS REASON HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGES AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 87 / 0 10 20 20
STT 77 88 78 87 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The seas are beggining to slowly go down and that is good news.Also,no big weather feature will come to the islands for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST WED OCT 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY BY TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS
WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELITE IMAGES INDICATED SURFACE WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY THIS MORNING. AFTER ALMOST ONE
WEEK IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DUE TO THE BIG CIRCULATION
WHICH WAS PRODUCED BY SANDY...FINALLY WE ARE IN A NORMAL WIND FLOW
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED A SLOT OF
DRY AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
PW VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 1.2 INCHES. THEN...FOR
SUNDAY...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION...WHICH WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 31/17Z WHEN SCT-NUMR
TSRA WILL FORM OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AFFECTING TJMZ
AND TJBQ. ALSO ISOLD-SCT TSRA NR TJSJ. WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS
AFT 31/16Z. LLVL WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...BOUY 41053 IN SAN JUAN STILL SHOWING 7 FEET AT 13
SECONDS AND BOUY 41043 LOCATED NEAR 200 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
SAN JUAN SHOWS 10.5 FEET AT 13 SECONDS. THEREFORE...EXTEND HIGH
SURF ADVISORY TROUGH 8 PM AST TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 20 20 30 10
STT 88 77 88 77 / 10 20 20 0

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST WED OCT 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL REGION CONTINUES UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN
OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND THUS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FLOW.
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY
BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
WEAKENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT LIMITED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO TODAY
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AND A SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 10/22Z IN SHRA/TSRA...
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LLVL WINDS E 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO THU. BY LATE
THURSDAY...THIS SWELL WILL BE TAKEN OVER BY A NORTHEAST SWELL GENERATED
FROM A DISTANT DEEP LAYERD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 76 87 / 30 30 10 10
STT 77 88 77 88 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
607 AM AST THU NOV 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY
BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
WEAKENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS A LINE OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EAST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS LINE WILL
MOVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER PUERTO RICO...BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. A EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS DOMINATING THE LOCAL REGION TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND
FLOW...THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

GENERAL STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES
DOMINATING THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF VCSH ESPECIALLY
AROUND TJSJ. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL DOMINATE ON THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...A NEW GROUP OF NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM A DISTANT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...WILL START ARRIVING
INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT. REFER TO MARINE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 77 / 30 10 10 20
STT 87 77 88 78 / 20 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST THU NOV 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE AND INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AT LEAST UNTIL
SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BROAD LONG
WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BY THAT TIME THE PREVAILING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL/WESTERLY.
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS
INDUCING A PREVAILING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY THEN BECOME MORE EASTERLY
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT LOW LEVELS...THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING INTERVALS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO...AS
WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND CLOUDINESS OVER LAND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

A GRADUAL SOMEWHAT DRIER TREND IS STILL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS NO DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED BY
LOCAL MODELS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR FRAGMENTS OF SHALLOW TRADE WIND
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BROUGHT IN ACROSS THE REGION BY THE PREVAILING
NORTH EASTERLIES. THERE WILL STILL HOWEVER BE A CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF
DIURNALLY AND LOCALLY TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION EACH DAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS THROUGH ABOUT 01/22Z IN SHRA/TSRA...
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LLVL WINDS E TO ENE 5-10 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 76 87 / 20 20 20 20
STT 76 87 78 88 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST FRI NOV 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LOCAL REGION REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
MAINTAINING AN OVERALL FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DURING THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A MORE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP A LIGHT
TO MODERATE FLOW IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR SEA/LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
TO DEVELOP. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS NO DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS ONLY SHOW FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL/SHALLOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BROUGHT IN ACROSS THE REGION BY THE TRADE WINDS.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS
OVER INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTING THE WINDWARD AREAS OF PR
AND USVI DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
WITH VCSH AT TJSJ AND TJBQ THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...02/14Z...IN
NORTHEAST FLOW. EXPECT SFC WINDS BY LATE MORNING FROM THE NORTHEAST
AT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
PULSES OF NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WAVE HEIGHTS IN GENERAL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 77 / 30 20 20 10
STT 88 77 88 78 / 10 30 30 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
222 PM AST FRI NOV 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING
IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL
BECOME ZONALLY-ORIENTED SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP
POLAR TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN USA MOVES EASTWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES STILL EXPECTED EACH MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DUE TO LAND/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SHIFTING TOWARD MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST
ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS A LACK OF
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...FR EVERYWHERE THRU SAT. SHRA BEGINNING ATTM OVR SW PR
AS XPCTD. VCSH AT TJPS/TJMZ/TKPK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS SHOWN IN TAFS.
OTHW XPCT ISOLD TO NO SHRA TONITE. LLVL WINDS TO FL150 WILL BE ENE
10-20 KT THRU SAT.

&&

.MARINE...PULSES OF NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A GENTLE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST NORTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 87 / 30 20 20 20
STT 78 88 78 88 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Great weather will prevail for the next few days in Puerto Rico


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST SAT NOV 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER RIDGE
PROMOTES A STABLE AIR MASS AND A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION. EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS MAINLY NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ABOUT 225 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL LINGER MAINLY NORTH OF LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ONLY FRAGMENTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADE
WINDS WILL REACH THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE
ALOFT TENDS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN
IN NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
WITH VCSH AT TJSJ AND TIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...03/13Z...IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SFC WINDS BY LATE MORNING...EAST
NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
OF 12 TO 14 SECONDS. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 76 / 30 20 20 30
STT 88 78 88 77 / 30 20 20 30

[Gustywind]

Good morning. Great weather will prevail for the next few days in Puerto Rico


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST SAT NOV 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER RIDGE
PROMOTES A STABLE AIR MASS AND A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION. EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS MAINLY NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ABOUT 225 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL LINGER MAINLY NORTH OF LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ONLY FRAGMENTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADE
WINDS WILL REACH THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE
ALOFT TENDS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN
IN NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
WITH VCSH AT TJSJ AND TIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...03/13Z...IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT SFC WINDS BY LATE MORNING...EAST
NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
OF 12 TO 14 SECONDS. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 76 / 30 20 20 30
STT 88 78 88 77 / 30 20 20 30

So VERY good news Cycloneye , glad to see that!

[Gustywind]

If things are improving and begin even to shine in the Lesser Antilles after Sandy... Haiti continue to be in a very worrying situation .

HAITI
A very alarming situation after Sandy
France-Antilles Guadeloupe 02.11.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 192512.php


A week after the passage of Sandy, the Government is struggling to prepare an assessment of the damage caused by the hurricane in a country that always licks the wounds of the devastating 2010 earthquake.

'' The balance sheet is heavy, roads and bridges have not withstood, the economy was hard hit. "More than 200 000 people are affected and the food security of the country is now problematic," stressed the Government by Tuesday night the State of emergency throughout the country.
According to the latest report available to the Civil Protection Directorate, Sandy has made 51 dead and 20 missing in the country, while thousands of people were still in temporary shelters.
Together with the Haitian authorities, international experts continue to assess the damage caused by bad weather in difficult conditions: some regions were still inaccessible in midweek.

"RISING PRICES OF COMMODITIES.

"What worries the most is food security, which will be the most serious consequence of the passing of Sandy ', says Johan Pelemen of the Office of the United Nations for Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
According to the UN official, the weather had a "disastrous impact" on agriculture as they arrived at the moment where the crops were underway. A first estimate in the agricultural sector reported losses of $ 104 million, according to Garry Mathieu, Director of the national Council for food security (CNSA). According to him, the departments of the South and Grand ' Anse, most affected, represent the granaries of Haiti.
"In the coming days, there will be a reduction of local food availability, which will lead to an increase in commodity prices", he says.
After the passage of the hurricane, the Haitian Government announced that approximately $ 8 million were made available in the affected areas.

A CALL FOR INTERNATIONAL HELP


«Donors must not turn elsewhere and forget about Haiti that still humanitarian needs related to the earthquake, to which were added the consequences of the hurricane Sandy», said Mr. Pelemen.
"He will have to appeal to international aid, but for now we have water and food that were pre-positioned to manage emergencies", added.
Internationally, this new disaster that struck Haiti has gone relatively unnoticed compared to media coverage of Sandy in the United States, and especially in New York. However, the Venezuela was offered a boat and a cargo of humanitarian aid plane.
Passage in Haiti as an Ambassador of good will of UNDP, crownprince Haakon de Norway also visited flooded areas in the South, noting that families have been hit hard.
"I hope that the international partners of Haiti will help the country to recover from the impact of Sandy", he confided.

-A country forgotten by the media

The cameras around the world remain turn on the ravages of Sandy in New York, object of all the fantasies and media capital, contrast with the journalistic treatment minima of the 50 dead in Haiti left in the wake of the hurricane.
The ravages of Sandy in Haiti have gone relatively unnoticed. The International Herald Tribune devoted Wednesday its an and several blogs at United States, against a skinny column to the situation of Haiti, written in Mexico City.
Professionals and media observers put forward including slow communication around the situation in Haiti.
"Indeed, the hurricane has claimed more lives in Haiti (...), but the authorities came with these several numbers s day s after Sandy." "Fault of ways probably they failed to inform in time", said journalist on-site, adding that the Government has declared a State of emergency only Tuesday, a week after the passage of Sandy.
Moreover, if number of journalists were already at the United States at the time of the passing of Sandy, notably to cover the U.S. presidential campaign, few were present in Haiti.

[msbee]

poor Haiti

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST SAT NOV 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING
IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
US VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ZONALLY
ORIENTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
USA MOVES EAST NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADES STILL EXPECTED EACH MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE
TO LAND/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHIFTING TOWARD MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS
BECOMES EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG A LINGERING SHEAR LINE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING. ALL OPERATIONAL
MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES...VCSH AT TIST UNTIL 03/20Z AND AT TJMZ TIL 03/22Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR AND SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS. ALSO VCSH AT TJSJ AFT
03/22Z TIL 04/03Z. LLVL WINDS NE TO E 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES OF UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 76 88 / 30 30 20 20
STT 76 87 78 87 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST SUN NOV 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT SAID...THERE SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY IN
PASSING BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES...TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN SHRA/TSRA CLUSTERING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...TEMPO
MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ...WITH MAINLY VCTS
ACROSS TJPS...BTWN 17Z AND 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6
FEET OR LESS IN NORTHEAST SWELLS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT HIGHEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 77 / 20 40 40 20
STT 87 78 87 77 / 40 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
220 PM AST SUN NOV 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
RESULTING IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES STILL EXPECTED EACH
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS A RESULT OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY
TODAY...SHIFTING TOWARD NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO TOMORROW AS WINDS
BECOMES EAST SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A SHEARLINE EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR
THE LOCAL ISLANDS NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
05/18Z. SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...RESULTING IN SHRA/TSRA CLUSTERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO SHRA WILL LINGER OVER LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE TIL 05/14Z TNCM AND TKPK. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND MTN OBSCURATIONS TIL 04/22Z AND AFT 05/16Z.
SHRA/TSRA WILL RE-DEVELOP AFT 05/17Z IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR. LLVL
WINDS EAST 10 TO 20 KT UP TO 10 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS IN NORTHEAST SWELLS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT HIGHEST
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 76 88 / 40 40 20 20
STT 78 87 77 87 / 40 40 20 20

[Macrocane]

Hey guys, I've updated the Cold Surges Thread with the latest observations from last week's event: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2289091#p2289091