WPAC: 25W - Tropical Depression

[Meow]

Near Sabah, Malaysia.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8N 117.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTHEAST OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 120942Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SANDAKAN (WBKS), APPROXIMATELY 75NM
SOUTHEAST, INDICATE A MINIMUM SLP VALUE OF 1004MB AT 12/0800Z AND
LIGHT SSE WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Meow]

WWJP25 RJTD 121200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 121200.
...
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 08N 117E WEST 10 KT.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Deppresion 93W...and not a word from the JTWC

[euro6208]

Tropical Deppresion 93W...and not a word from the JTWC

that image isn't recent...

dvorak estimates barely TOO weak or 1.0...

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 130311
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 13/0230Z

C. 8.2N

D. 113.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...2-3 TENTHS BANDING ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO NO CLASSIFICATION 24 HRS AGO. PT IS 1.0. FT IS BASED
ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/2231Z 7.8N 114.8E WINDSAT
13/0025Z 8.0N 114.3E SSMIS


...NEWHARD

[RobWESTPACWX]

JTWC still has it as a low. Somewhat surprised of that at this point. Regardless of its name though southern Vietnam will see some flooding rains.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Looks like it was upgraded to a Medium. Regardless as I stated above. A high risk of flooding in Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand is on the cards here.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is a look at Vietnams local model outlook, noting the heavy accumulation as far North of Da nang in the next 72hrs. http://www.nchmf.gov.vn/web/en-US/74/16 ... fault.aspx

[RobWESTPACWX]

Really great MIMIC imagery of this TD moving across the Philippines and then in to the SCS.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is the link to the official track from Vietnam. JMA still not issuing a track on this but they do have the TD on there weather map.

http://www.nchmf.gov.vn/web/en-US/70/102/Default.aspx

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 131430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6N 112.6E TO 10.4N 105.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131132Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 112.1E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N
113.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 112.1E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTHWEST OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. A RECENT 130930Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVING
LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION WITH BANDING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE LLCC. AN EARLIER 130226Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED PREDOMINANTLY
20 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE CENTER, AND WITH THE RECENT FLARING OF
CONVECTION IT IS ESTIMATED THE WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE
PERSISTED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC IS CREATING A REGION OF STRONG
DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. BASED ON IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141430Z.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is a look at my latest video on the TD. I hope the information in here is useful.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HQuvy9Yjyo&feature=g-u-u[/youtube]

[euro6208]

1.0 from PGTW and KNES...

[cycloneye]

From JMA.

TD
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 13 November 2012
<Analyses at 13/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°25'(7.4°)
E110°35'(110.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 14/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°40'(7.7°)
E107°25'(107.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

looks like an upgrade (1 min) is imminent as dvorak estimates have reached 1.5...

[Meow]

looks like an upgrade (1 min) is imminent as dvorak estimates have reached 1.5...

So, the JTWC upgraded it to a TD and estimates that 25W may make landfall over Thailand as a tropical storm.



WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 7.7N 108.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.7N 108.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 8.1N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 8.9N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 9.7N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 10.2N 102.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 10.5N 100.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.0N 99.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.2N 97.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 7.8N 108.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 131421Z NOV 12
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 131430). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Latest track from JMA, still a TD and out only 24hrs, but they do expect it to go TS. My thoughts, if it goes TS it stays weak and for a very short time. But, mainly.. I think this one will stay a TD, still rather impressive rainmaker for Vietnam.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/a.html

[RobWESTPACWX]

Despite it being a TD, microwave imagery still shows this guy very shallow and disorganized.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[euro6208]

very interesting late season storm...