Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

Hi guys! A new cold surge has begun in Central America today, I love this cool and windy weather. Here's the latest HPC discussion:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EST TUE NOV 13 2012

DISCUSSION FROM NOV 13/00 UTC: WEST OVER THE DOMAIN...AT MID/UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS TO EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA TO
THE SOUTHWEST USA EARLY THIS CYCLE...WHERE IT IS TO THEN HOLD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE TO REVOLVE AROUND
THIS AXIS...WITH ONE AT 250 HPA TO QUICKLY PULL ACROSS THE
GULF/YUCATAN TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY IN THE CYCLE...TO THEN
LIFT ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AS IT PULLS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ANOTHER SHORTLY FOLLOWS...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRAJECTORY
ACROSS THE GULF-YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
THROUGH 42-48 HRS. THE INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ALLOW FOR
MID LEVEL TROUGH TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST USA TO
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA BY 48-60 HRS...
WITH AXIS TO THEN SLOWLY PULL LATER IN THE PERIOD.

AT LOW LEVELS...THIS IS TO SUSTAIN AN ELONGATED FRONT ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST STATES OF TAMAULIPAS/NUEVO LEON.
THE FRONT STALLS EARLY THIS CYCLE...AND IT IS TO GENERALLY PERSIST
THROUGH 84-96 HRS. A SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATES WITH THIS FRONT...WITH
AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF TO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/OAXACA. BUT
THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE AS RESILIENT...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 30-36 HRS. AS THE FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MEXICO THIS IS TO FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH MOST ACTIVE
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY. ON THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO...THE
SHEAR LINE IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. BY 36-60 HRS THIS WILL INCREASE TO
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. FURTHERMORE...AS MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS THIS IS TO
INTERACT WITH DIURNAL HEATING/SEA BREEZE RELATED CONVERGENCE TO
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY
THROUGH 24-30 HRS. ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THIS IS TO FAVOR WIDELY
ISOLATED CONVECTION...WITH A SURGE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
BAHAMAS BY 72 HRS...WHEN MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT 15-25MM.

FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
BERMUDA...A LOW NEAR 27N 70W...EASTERN CUBA TO THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE TROUGH IS PRESSING AGAINST A
RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE UPPER LEVELS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
LIFT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
DEEPENS AND ESTABLISHES TO THE WEST OVER FLORIDA-CUBA TO CENTRAL
AMERICA. AS THE TROUGH ESTABLISHES TO THE WEST...RIDGE PATTERN IS
TO ALSO SHIFT WEST...MOVING INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA/EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. AT MID LEVELS THIS IS TO THEN REFLECT AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...THAT IS TO CENTER ON A
CLOSED HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLES. THIS IS TO STRENGTHEN
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CAP OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY 36-42
HRS...TO HOLD THROUGH 72-84 HRS. THIS...IN-TURN...IS TO FAVOR
GRADUAL EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES IS EXPECTED EARLY TODAY...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY OVER
EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.

AT LOW LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM LA
GUAJIRA PENINSULA IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO THE CAUCA VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA TO JAMAICA. BOTH PERTURBATIONS TEND TO PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST VENEZUELA. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA MOST
ACTIVE IS EXPECTED FROM EASTERN COSTA RICA TO PANAMA...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY THROUGH
60 HRS...AND 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY AT 60-84 HRS.
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY THROUGH 48 HRS.
AFTERWARDS... EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 35-70MM/DAY WITH MOST ACTIVE ACROSS EJE CAFETERO AND NORTHWARD
INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA DE SANTA MARTA. ACTIVITY IS TO ALSO BUILD
AND INTENSIFY ACROSS APURE TO MARACAIBO IN VENEZUELA AND
SANTANDERES IN COLOMBIA BY 60-84 HRS..

THE INDUCED/INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
IS TO ALSO SUSTAIN A LONG FETCH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CUBA TO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS FLOW
PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FAVORING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA. ACROSS
CENTRAL GUATEMALA THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY. OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS INITIALLY EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY. THROUGH
48 HRS THIS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM/DAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST WED NOV 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE NOW EXTENDING
SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED AND EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THESE TWO FEATURES ALONG WITH
THE STILL MOIST EASTERLY WIND FLOW...WERE STILL PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
VENTILATION/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AND ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WHILE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT
PATTERN TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WAS ALSO
STEERING PATCHES OF MID TO UPPER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AND ALLOWING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DEPICTED CLUSTERS OF CLOUDINESS
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS WITH SOME BRIEFLY BRUSH PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
AND OCCASIONALLY THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP AND BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE WILL BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT
FACTOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE EXPECT A MORE
STABLE PATTERN TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE ALOFT THROUGH OUT THE DAY AND
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ...EXPECT OVERALL DECREASING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE BLENDED
TPW PRODUCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE AND ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY DROP TO BELOW 1.70 INCHES LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WIND WIND FLOW WILL BE MORE FROM THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FORM...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THERE
IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ALSO DECREASE BY LATE
MORNING WITH LESSER SHOWER EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH SCT SHRA VCNTY TIST...TISX...
TJSJ AND TJPS. OTHERWISE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST SE AT 5 TO 15 KT. AFT 14/17Z
EXPECT TSRA TO FORM WRN PR AND OVER CORDILLERA CENTRAL WRN HALF WITH
MTN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR AT TJMZ FOR CIGS AND VSBYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 75 / 30 20 20 30
STT 87 76 87 78 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

November 14 Jamaica forecast.

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

November 14 2012
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Expect generally fair conditions across most parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (82F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:13 a.m.
 5:31 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:18 a.m.
 5:36 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:19 a.m.
 5:37 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST WED NOV 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS AND
HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS
ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN MID NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A DRYING
TREND THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH FRI. OVR THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE
SURGES BACK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION. THINGS TURN
MUCH WETTER ON MON AS AN INVERTED SFC TROF ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE
AREA AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS AS MID-UPPER RIDGE ERODES AS
UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHES TO THE NORTH. A SHEARLINE ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW PRES FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLC NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO ENTER
THE MONA PASSAGE ON WED AND ACT TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND T-STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SO OVERALL TREND...IS FOR SIG DRYING
NEXT TWO DAYS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL MOISTENING OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SIG BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MID CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
SIG DRYING/CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIG WX.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 5-7 FT IN NORTHEAST SWELLS. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR AMZ710 THRU TUE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 75 88 / 10 20 30 30
STT 76 87 78 87 / 10 30 30 30

[Macrocane]

Tonight's a very windy and cool night in Central America. This is the latest HPC discussion:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
220 PM EST WED NOV 14 2012

DISCUSSION FROM NOV 14/00 UTC: OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DOMAIN...A MID/UPPER LEVELS RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHWEST USA...WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED HIGH
JUST SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THIS IS TO PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE BUILDING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO. SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS
AXIS AND THEN FEED INTO A DIGGING TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE INFLOW
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FAVOR SOUTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF A
TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
YUCATAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THROUGH 48-60 HRS THIS IS TO
EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH...WITH BASE TO BOTTOM OUT
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR/GUATEMALA.

AT LOW LEVELS...THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN GULF/NORTHEAST STATES OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORESEE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY...WITH AXIS TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AS THE FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS IS TO
FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY THROUGH 36-42 HRS. AFTERWARDS...
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM/DAY. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN STATES
OF MEXICO...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM THROUGH 36 HRS...AND 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY
THEREAFTER. FURTHERMORE...AS A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS CUBA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THIS IS TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
HEATING/SEA BREEZE RELATED CONVERGENCE TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. MOST ACTIVE TO CLUSTER
ON CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND BY 36-84 HRS WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. THIS IS TO
ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...WITH A SURGE IN
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST BAHAMAS BY 48-84 HRS...WHEN
WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS
DEEP TROUGH ESTABLISHES TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GULF TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO/NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE
WEST...RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST
AND NORTH...AS IT IS TO EXTEND FROM VENEZUELA...ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGE TO BECOME
WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH MID LEVEL HIGH
TO SETTLE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLES/PUERTO RICO THROUGH 42-48 HRS.
THIS...IN-TURN...IS TO STRENGTHEN THE SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES THROUGH 24-30 HRS. THIS...HOWEVER...IS
AT A SLOWER PACE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...
PWAT IS TO DROP TO THE MID 30S AND THIS IS TO HOLD THROUGH 84 HRS.
AS A RESULT...CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS IS
EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE DAY...WITH MOST ACTIVE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY. THIS DECREASES TO
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM BY 36-84 HRS.

AT LOW LEVELS...A TROUGH LIES TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM LA
GUAJIRA PENINSULA/MARACAIBO VENEZUELA TO THE CAUCA VALLEY IN
SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA. AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH FROM
NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO JAMAICA/HAITI. LONG FETCH EASTERLY TRADES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE TO DISPLACE
THIS TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH AXIS TO ALIGN ACROSS
THE GULF OF URABA TO SOUTHEAST JAMAICA. THIS FEATURE IS TO REMAIN
FOCUS OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE FRENCH
ISLES/SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS CYCLE TO QUICKLY EBB THROUGH
36-42 HRS. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MEANDERS SOUTH OF JAMAICA THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. THROUGH 36-72 HRS THIS IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.. ACROSS
NORTHERN COLOMBIA-NORTHWEST VENEZUELA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS EJE CAFETERO IN COLOMBIA/WESTERN PACIFIC COASTAL
PLAINS AND ANDEAN REGION...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS COSTA RICA TO WESTERN PANAMA...WITH WINDS OF 15-25KT TO
CONVERGE ON THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL PLAINS. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM/DAY THROUGH
36 HRS...AND 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY AT 36-84 HRS.
HOWEVER...ON DAYS 03-04...LOCALIZED MAXIMA IN EXCESS OF 100MM ARE
HIGHLY LIKELY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE.

THE INDUCED/INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH...AS IT PERSISTS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IS TO ALSO SUSTAIN A LONG FETCH NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS CUBA TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. THIS FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FAVORING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS IT LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS AND CENTRAL
GUATEMALA. ACROSS CENTRAL GUATEMALA/SOUTHERN BELIZE-NORTHERN
HONDURAS THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY. AT 36-72 HRS EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY.

SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)

[Macrocane]

Latest PTWD:

GAP WINDS...
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A WEAKENING FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THIS FLOW IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED WINDS OF 25-30 KT
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM COMPUTER
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN USUALLY THE WINDS ARE GREATEST WITH THE
AID OF THE DRAINAGE FLOW. SO...DECIDE TO MAINTAIN THE GALE
WARNING THROUGH EARLY THU AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI EVENING.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING
THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE
WINDS ARE PEAKING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Less rain is forecast for today thru Friday for PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST THU NOV 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TODAY AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE EAST. AS THE SAME TIME A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. LATEST RADAR IMAGES DEPICTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO...BUT LIMITED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT A
MORE STABLE PATTERN TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE ALOFT THROUGH OUT THE DAY
AND THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS...EXPECT OVERALL DECREASING CLOUDINESS...AS
WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE AND ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DROP TO BELOW
1.50 INCHES LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL
WIND WIND FLOW WILL BE MORE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FORM...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS THE CIMMS-MIMIC PWAT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MOVING WEST AT
AROUND 15 KTS. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS MORNING WITH MINIMAL INFLUENCES...IF
ANY...OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH TO THE REGION TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MULTIPLE LYRS OF LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE FLYING AREA THRU 15/15Z...WITH SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
OVR THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATER AND VCNTY TIST...TISX...TJSJ AS WELL
AS VCTY TNCM AND TKPN. OTHERWISE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR. SCT-BKN
CLD LYRS BTW MAINLY BTW FL025-FL100 WITH BKN-OVC HIGH CLDS NR FL200
IN NW QUAD OF FLYING AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FM
THE E-NE AT 5 TO 15 KT BLO FL150. FM 15/17Z-15/22Z...EXPECT ISOLD
TSRA OVR WRN PR AND PARTS OF CENTRAL INTERIOR W/MTN TOP OBSCR AND
BRIEF MVFR AT TJMZ IN CIGS/VSBY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 75 / 30 30 30 20
STT 87 78 87 78 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

November 15 Jamaica forecast.

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

November 15 2012
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Expect generally fair conditions across most parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (82F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:13 a.m.
 5:31 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:18 a.m.
 5:36 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:19 a.m.
 5:37 p.m.
 
 


[Gustywind]

Don't forget them ... but let's continue to pray for them .

August 16, 2005 crash: a second investigative judge appointed

franceantilles.fr 14.11.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 181518.php

Custody of the seals Christiane Taubira announced Wednesday the appointment of a second judge in charge at Fort-de-France from the judicial inquiry into the Colombian company West Caribbean plane crash in Venezuela that claimed 160 lives in 2005.
"It's too much work for a single investigative judge, president of the Fort-de-France TGI decided early October to assign a second magistrate" to investigate this crash with 152 victims in the French mainly Martinique, said the Minister at the National Assembly.
She responded to a question from the Martinique Serge Letchimy Member who worried about the progress of the file.

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. There is a potential big rain event that may unfold for next week in the NE Caribbean so stay tuned for more information as it becomes available.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU NOV 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON MON AS DEEP TROF OVER ERN NOAM BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST CNTRL ATLC. SFC LOW PRES FCST TO
DEVELOP NEAR BERMUDA MONDAY WILL DRAG A SHEARLINE INTO THE AREA
MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH SUN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON MON AS A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS SPLITS AND MOVES INTO THE ATLC. AS
THIS OCCURS...MODELS INDICATE A SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR
BERMUDA MOVING IT SLOWLY EWD. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A SHEARLINE INTO
THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT KEEPING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE SHEARLINE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIG RAINS MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. NOTE THAT MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN ATLC MID NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY AT THE SFC. IN SUMMARY...VERY WET CONDITIONS APPEAR IN
STORE FOR NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 16/12Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER TJMZ THROUGH 15/22Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...A NEW PULSE OF NORTHEAST SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
TONIGHT. SCA`S MAY GO INTO EFFECT AGAIN FOR THE ATLC WATERS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 88 / 30 30 30 30
STT 78 87 78 88 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST FRI NOV 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BY MONDAY WILL DRAG A SHEARLINE INTO THE AREA MID NEXT
WEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE MOVING CLOSE TO THE REGION
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. LATEST RADAR IMAGES DEPICTED ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH FEW OF
THEM AFFECTING THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA. LIMITED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY WAS
DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCE SUGGESTS
PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 1.50 INCHES TODAY INCREASING SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE
MORE FROM THE EAST...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
FORM...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
BY MONDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE MOVING CLOSE TO THE
REGION BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE MORNING
HOURS. AFT 16/17Z...SHALLOW CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR...SOUTHERN...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR RESULTING
IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT 16/21Z. SFC TO 2K
FT WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 88 75 / 20 30 30 20
STT 87 78 88 78 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

November 16 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

November 16 2012
 
Significant Feature: Surface trough over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with periods showers mainly over eastern and central parishes.

Tonight: Partly cloudy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (82F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:14 a.m.
 5:30 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:19 a.m.
 5:35 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:20 a.m.
 5:36 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

Good afternoon.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN
COLLAPSE ON MONDAY AS BROAD TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELITE IMAGES INDICATED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PASSING SHOWERS MOVING FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE
WESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND. IN GENERAL...STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE WEEKEND...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NEXT WEEK...A MORE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE WETTEST DAYS
COULD BE NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION... TSTM POSSIBLE AT JMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 15/22Z...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH JUST VCSH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 75 87 / 30 30 20 20
STT 77 86 78 86 / 30 30 20 20

[Macrocane]

Update in the Central America Cold Surges Thread with the observations from last week event: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2289807#p2289807

[cycloneye]

Good morning. It looks like Thanksgiving day will be with scattered showers in NE Caribbean.Stay tuned for more details as time goes by.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHEAST
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A STRONG TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE RIDGE
RECOVERS VERY LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTH HOLDING FLOW MAINLY ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC COMBINE TO KEEP
MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. A LOW THAT DEEPENS NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MOVES NORTHWEST AND FORMS A STRONG AND LARGE
LOW PRESSURE BY FRIDAY THAT WEAKENS FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND DROPS
A SHEAR LINE NEAR TO OR ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE GENERALLY
REMAINS HIGH DURING THE PERIOD.


&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS ALL BUT THE
SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO IN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW. SOME OF THESE HAVE
LEFT NEARLY ONE HALF INCH ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND AS MUCH
AS FOUR HUNDREDTHS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODELS ARE NOT IN
PERFECT AGREEMENT ABOUT WIND DIRECTION TODAY...WITH THE NAM
RUNNING A LITTLE MORE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT GENERAL FLOW IS EAST OR
EAST SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE HOWEVER PROMISES GOOD SHOWER COVERAGE
DURING THE DAY TODAY AND WILL KEEP POPS BETWEEN 40 AND 70 PERCENT
WITH THE HIGHEST IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND POSSIBLY WEST OF SAN JUAN.
MOISTURE GENERALLY REMAINS HIGH DURING THE WEEK WITH A FEW DRY
SLOTS. A FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE DEPICTED IT AS REACHING VERY CLOSE TO
THE AREA OR PASSING PUERTO RICO...BUT THE DRIER AIR BEHIND IT DOES
NOT MAKE IT TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE FRONT/SHEARLINE STALLS
AROUND FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK INCLUDING THANKSGIVING AND THE
FRIDAY AFTER. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MORE MOISTURE FOR
THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...AND WITH CLIMATOLOGY FAVORING THIS
SOLUTION...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY SCATTERED THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AT TJSJ...TIST/TISX AND
TNCM/TKPK DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AFT 17/17Z...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF PR...RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ...AND
EVEN POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AT TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 17/21Z.
HOWEVER...TJSJ AND TJPS MAY STILL OBSERVE VCTS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NEARLY WEST SWELL OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS CONTINUES ABOVE 2
METERS 6 FEET THROUGH MONDAY...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY RELAX TO 4 TO
5 FEET AT BUOY 41043. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET
FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE
EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEADLINE FOR AT LEAST
SEVERAL MORE DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 86 76 / 40 30 40 50
STT 87 77 89 78 / 40 30 30 50

[cycloneye]

November 17 Jamaica forecast.

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

November 17 2012
 
Significant Feature: Surface trough over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy with isolated showers.

Afternoon: Expect periods of showers over sections of most parishes.

Tonight: Partly cloudy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (82F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:14 a.m.
 5:30 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:19 a.m.
 5:35 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:20 a.m.
 5:36 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST SAT NOV 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FROM EL YUNQUE RAIN FOREST...EXTENDING
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THESE SHOWERS WERE
MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...PRODUCING LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO...AFFECTING THE MUNICIPALITIES OF SAN SEBASTIAN...MOCA AND
AGUADILLA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MAINTAINS RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA.

BEGINNING ON LATE MONDAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE WIND...AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR
NORTH. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE...WILL DRAG A SHEARLINE TO THE AREA
AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE FACTORS PROMISE TO BRING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH EFFECTS
WILL HAVE THIS SHEAR LINE OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION... TSTM POSSIBLE AT JBW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH JUST
VCSH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 85 / 10 10 50 50
STT 78 87 77 86 / 20 20 50 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The Thanksgiving day holiday will be a wet one.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST SUN NOV 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING OUT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERNIGHT PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUED AFFECTING THE
LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS SOME ARES IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO. A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WERE
MODERATE BUT MOST OF THEM WERE LIGHT AS THEY PASSED BY.

THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THEN TURNING MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME...COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS...ONCE AGAIN WE EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
ISLAND. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
NEARBY THUNDERSTORM.

BEGINNING LATE MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. AS THIS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL DRAG A SHEARLINE TO THE
TO THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE FACTORS WILL
LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY
AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MASS WILL ENTER AREA TODAY BUT SHRA/TSRA FORMATION OVER
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR AFT
18/17Z ANYWAY. AFT 18/18Z MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJBQ IN TSRA
TIL 18/21Z. LLVL WINDS ESE 5 TO 15 KT UP THROUGH 12 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET. BUOY 41043 TO THE NORTH
OF OUR WATERS IS REPORTING SEAS OF ALMOST 7 FEET WHILE THE SAN
JUAN BUOY HAS BEEN REPORTING SEAS OF ABOUT 5 FEET...THEREFORE SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS WERE KEPT IN
THE FORECAST AS THE EAST NORTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL WATERS TODAY. WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 16 KNOTS OR LESS
FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 86 74 / 30 50 50 30
STT 87 77 86 75 / 40 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST SUN NOV 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TUESDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO OUR NORTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE REGION MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
MOST OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR
TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS LOW MOVE TO OUR NORTH...AND SLOWLY MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...LOCAL REGION WILL REMAIN IN A COL AREA WITH
VERY LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVEN SHIFT
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THIS MOMENT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE AREA...AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSH
THE REMNANTS OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION...AND
CONVERGE WITH THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE. IN THE LONG
TERM...PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS 0.8 INCHES BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH...IF VERIFIES...WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
THE UPCOMING THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF JMZ AND JBQ THRU 21Z WITH CIGS
BKN040. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN MON AS UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST CNTRL ATLC. THIS TO WEAKEN MID
LEVEL CAP AND ALLOW TSRA TO DEVELOP.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 74 85 / 40 40 30 30
STT 77 86 75 85 / 60 60 30 40

[cycloneye]

November 18 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

November 18 2012
 
Significant Feature: Surface trough over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Generally fair except for isolated showers mainly over sections of eastern and central parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 5 knots (6 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (82F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:15 a.m.
 5:30 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:20 a.m.
 5:35 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:21 a.m.
 5:36 p.m.