ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

3.4 dropped a bit as of this morning' s update from the cpc along with the other regions

[cycloneye]

3.4 dropped a bit as of this morning' s update from the cpc along with the other regions

Here is the text of this week's update. Indeed all ENSO regions went down.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

ESPI in negative at -0.43

Another indication that El Nino is hiding and does not want to come.

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

[Cyclenall]

This is the write up this month (back on the 6th) from Wolter Klaus at NOAA about the current enso event and what to look forward to, included in his monthly MEI calculation discussions.

Stay tuned for the next update by 8 December 2012 (hopefully sooner) to see where the MEI will be heading next. While it is too early to write an obituary for the short-lived El Niño event of 2012, the odds for a rebound have dwindled since last month. Therefore, we are facing our first ENSO-neutral winter since 2003-04. Furthermore, every 'double-dip' La Niña of the last century has been followed by either one more La Niña winter or a switch to El Niño, so this is even more unusual. Meanwhile, we will have a few months before a return to La Niña becomes a possibility in 2013.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/mei.html

We are definitely in uncharted territory when trying to use for forecasting long term.

I love uncharted territory when it comes to the weather, this is great .

3.4 dropped a bit as of this morning' s update from the cpc along with the other regions

Here is the text of this week's update. Indeed all ENSO regions went down.

This is fantastic!! All regions dropping like I'd of hoped. The possibility of a triple-dip La Nina grows every week this happens.

[weatherdude1108]

Has there ever been another time when the CPC's forecast of a coming El Niño -- BUSTED like this? "Epic fail" as they say?

[LarryWx]

Folks,
Like it or not, it is now the right time for a very important announcement. I'd really appreciate it if the phasers were put away...I'm just trying to deliver a message. Nothing more, nothing less. This is not an easy thing to do.

[Ntxw]

Looking at TAO/Triton and subsurface values, cold pools are growing in the depths especially to the east. Again, we won't see true values reflecting it until the March or April period when a possible Nina might emerge but the growing cold areas are increasing the chances for that to happen.

[weatherdude1108]

WONDERFUL
What that actually means is that the weather pattern will reflect an El Nino. El Nino lost, but then found. I know, I'm -removed-.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

My province is going to drown come spring.

[weatherdude1108]

:eek: My province is going to drown come spring.

:eek: My province is going to drown come spring.

We'll take your drowning down here to fill up our lakes. It never seems to work out evenly.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 12/3/12 update

Nino 3.4 continues to go down now at +0.2C and the other regions did the same.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[NDG]

Not good news for many areas across the southern US where drought conditions have persisted, the pattern is closer to a La Nina already with much of the eastern US and southern US having a drier than average wx during the month of November with not much hope for at least the FL Peninsula over the next few days, good thing that FL just came out of the wettest summer on record so area lakes have not been affected yet.

[Ptarmigan]

The PDO is cool and that causes the jet stream to go further north taking the storms with it.

[Cyclenall]

Folks,
Like it or not, it is now the right time for a very important announcement. I'd really appreciate it if the phasers were put away...I'm just trying to deliver a message. Nothing more, nothing less. This is not an easy thing to do.

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress. ... ad_jim.jpg

Awesome. The only thing that would have made this even better was if wxman57 posted it himself!

Looking at TAO/Triton and subsurface values, cold pools are growing in the depths especially to the east. Again, we won't see true values reflecting it until the March or April period when a possible Nina might emerge but the growing cold areas are increasing the chances for that to happen.

That's quite something. How often does that happen in December when a La Nina event was not expected in the coming months?

:eek: My province is going to drown come spring.

Its a trend .

Climate Prediction Center 12/3/12 update

Nino 3.4 continues to go down now at +0.2C and the other regions did the same.

. Look at how rapid Nino 1+2 is dropping, Nino 3 now in negative as well.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

:eek: My province is going to drown come spring.

Its a trend .

Sometimes I think you enjoy bad news too much Cyclenall.

So how long will this last??? We just went through 30 years of varying degrees of drought....does that now mean 30 years of, more than less, rain??? (trying to remember how many years now that we've been overblessed).

Wish we could balance this out somehow Texas (I sure don't want your drought but I also don't want to see my city's valley fill with rain/melt again).

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 12/6/12 December update

No big surprises here as Neutral ENSO is what was expected as El Nino has been for the most part absent in the Summer and fall.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 and into spring 2013.

During November 2012, the Pacific Ocean reflected ENSO-neutral conditions. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies were slightly positive across all of the tropical Pacific Ocean except for the far eastern portion (Fig. 1) as also indicated in the Niño indices (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) was also slightly above average (Fig. 3), with largest amplitude in the east-central part of the basin (Fig. 4). Despite the subsurface and surface Pacific Ocean being slightly warmer than average, the tropical atmosphere remained in an ENSO-neutral state. Upper-level and lower-level zonal winds were near average, and convection was slightly suppressed over the eastern and central tropical Pacific (Fig. 5). Thus, both the atmosphere and ocean indicated ENSO-neutral conditions.

Relative to last month, the SST model predictions increasingly favor ENSO-neutral, with many remaining just slightly above average in the Niño-3.4 region through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 and into spring 2013 (Fig. 6). While the tropical atmosphere and especially the ocean suggested borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions at times from July to September, these signs have now largely dissipated. Therefore, it is considered unlikely that a fully coupled El Niño will develop during the next several months. ENSO-neutral is now favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 and into spring 2013 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

[Ntxw]

^ Latest buoy data confirms. Mostly neutral waters, and at the sub-surface warmth and cool are equal and have been going back and forth. Earliest possibilities of a La Nina may rise in the Spring or early summer. The PDO has been rising so I am not certain how strong it may be if it does come.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,what do you see on the SOI front? Does this recent plunge in the past few days is noise or is something more serious to see if El Nino comes out from hiding?

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,what do you see on the SOI front? Does this recent plunge in the past few days is noise or is something more serious to see if El Nino comes out from hiding?

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

I certainly didn't see it coming. Don't think it says Nino, it is likely a result of MJO/Kelvin convection near the dateline. Probably says that a Nina in the near future is not likely even with the eastern cooling and neutral is best until spring. Strangely ONI for SON was 0.6, which makes no sense since November and Sept had signature cooling periods and definitely cooler than JJA which they said was only 0.1. Not much consistency there.

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI hit -48. At the same time 3.4 and 4 cooled while 1+2 warmed a little.