WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[Meow]

The (likely) last tropical cyclone this year is a Category 5 super typhoon. This typhoon season really wants to end with a bang.

It will be the worst nightmare to Mindanao in the history...

[Dave C]

Here's a nice map which you can blow-up for more detail of Mindinao. Map is pdf format
http://www.mindanaomaps.com/Mindamaps/MindanaoMap.pdf

[cebuboy]

My goodness! Then it will pass south of Cebu, the second most populous city in Philippines. This is so scary.

[stormstrike]

JTWC update is late.. i wonder why they're taking so long to release their latest forecast...

[cebuboy]

The (likely) last tropical cyclone this year is a Category 5 super typhoon. This typhoon season really wants to end with a bang.

It will be the worst nightmare to Mindanao in the history...

I hope not, Mindanao already sufferred a lot from the recent floods and still have not fully recovered until now.

[supercane4867]

Bopha is running into some cooler waters，hopefully this can weaken it before landfall，but Bopha is moving too fast to let it happen

[euro6208]

Category 5 Super Typhoon Bopha making a beeline for Mindanao...God bless everyone in the southern philippines!

[euro6208]

OMG! 155 knots! this is the kind of storm we wish we had recon for...totally unbelievable! this is clearly stronger than only 140 knots...



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 DEC 2012 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 7:29:46 N Lon : 128:08:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.5 / 911.3mb/155.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.5 7.6 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +6.2C Cloud Region Temp : -81.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 107km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.4 degrees

[supercane4867]

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 7.4N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 8.2N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 9.2N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 10.3N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 11.4N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.9N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NOR

[CrazyC83]

This is a true nightmare scenario. What is the strongest storm ever to hit Mindanao?

It's probably going to miss the mountains too so it may not weaken rapidly after it comes in...

[CrazyC83]

03/0830 UTC 7.2N 129.6E T7.0/7.0 BOPHA -- West Pacific

That was several hours ago so it might be 7.5 at next update. Intensity looks to be about 150 kt right now.

[yulou]

Bopha is C5 at the lowest latitude in NW Pacific!
it became 140kt at 7.4N

pretty small eye

[CrazyC83]

My goodness! Then it will pass south of Cebu, the second most populous city in Philippines. This is so scary.

It should weaken some, but will still be incredibly dangerous...stay safe!!! Even Category 1 winds are nothing to mess around with.

[supercane4867]

Bopha is C5 at the lowest latitude in NW Pacific!
it became 140kt at 7.4N

It's probably the lowest in the world, I can't think of any other CAT5s that had lower latitude

[cebuboy]

This is a true nightmare scenario. What is the strongest storm ever to hit Mindanao?

It's probably going to miss the mountains too so it may not weaken rapidly after it comes in...

I think its Mike in 1990: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Ruping ..It's very strong and I still remember it. I was still 9 years old.

[stormstrike]

Look at that flaring convection approaching the east coast

[cebuboy]

My goodness! Then it will pass south of Cebu, the second most populous city in Philippines. This is so scary.

It should weaken some, but will still be incredibly dangerous...stay safe!!! Even Category 1 winds are nothing to mess around with.

Thanks for your concern..There is already an announcement over the news that all classes are suspended in Cebu City for tomorrow. This is a good move from the government.

[euro6208]

03/0830 UTC 7.2N 129.6E T7.0/7.0 BOPHA -- West Pacific

That was several hours ago so it might be 7.5 at next update. Intensity looks to be about 150 kt right now.

bopha is amazing but terrible for the philippines...this is like her 3rd time with a pinhole eye...

[euro6208]

Bopha is C5 at the lowest latitude in NW Pacific!
it became 140kt at 7.4N

It's probably the lowest in the world, I can't think of any other CAT5s that had lower latitude

i don't think it's the lowest...i know of many super typhoons at 5 N of the equator but i forgot their names...bopha isn't a rare typhoon after all...

[dexterlabio]

oh come on PAGASA this is no 175kph typhoon even on 10-min average. this is the right time for you to raise signal number 4!