Texas Winter 2012-2013

[iorange55]

What a great and informative discussion! Someone needs to send them a box of Christmas cookies.

[Ntxw]

I guess now it makes sense why our greatest single snowfall event had all of us panicking when it happened that the warm air would advect north, instead it just sat right below I-20 letting the warm and cold air to continually clash!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I put this in my original apology and had originally wrote it to send to Vbhoutex but thought it should go here:

I apologize for causing hard feelings. I really truly didn't notice the word evaporation til after I came back from supper. I seem to get caught up in the joking around and decide to cut and paste something that tickles my funny bone without carefully reading the whole posting first.

I knew as soon as I noticed the Texan thread hadn't moved and my name was still showing as last poster I'd screwed up again.

I really really have to learn NOT to cut and paste anything unless I have time to read it carefully (vs. my unthinking quick scan). Especially when it comes to weather in an area that I am unfamiliar with.

I just feel so bad ruining the thread by my thoughtlessness.

all I could say was crap.

I feel like that too as I know drought is no laughing matter down there.

[Rgv20]

Wow that was a great read out of the NWS in Dallas!

Just took a look at today's Monthly ECMWF Forecast and it has a massive Arctic Outbreak starting around Jan 7....Its forecasting -10c 850mb Temps almost to Deep South Texas The CFSv2 and Monthly ECMWF have been rather consistent on at least the first half of January is going to be COLD for much of the nation..

[iorange55]

SaskatchewanScreamer

No hard feelings here! Heck, I don't even know what you are apologizing about (guess I missed it.) I highly doubt you ruined the thread for anybody.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, don't worry SasketchewanScreamer we joke about our own misery all the time! We take nothing to heart =)

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Thank you for your kind words iorange and Ntxw.

I'll leave you folks to your scheming, dreams and hair pulling and get back to my wrapping, cooking, and baking.

Wishing you folks the whitest Christmas you can handle (but remember to make that snow cold has to be present )

[Yukon Cornelius]

Just wanted to say hello from Burkburnett, north of Wichita Falls. I'm new to the boards but have been a looking guest for quite some time. Figured should go ahead and create a profile. I want to thank you all for the work y'all do and the posts. Y'all keep me informed on all things Texas weather and do a hell of a job! This page is my number 1 source for all things winter in TX. Good to be here!

[Ntxw]

The 0z GFS overall looks very similar to it's 12z run so far, confines the snow to central Oklahoma-northern Arkansas

Welcome to the board Yukon Cornelius!

[Turtle]

The 0z GFS overall looks very similar to it's 12z run so far, confines the snow to central Oklahoma-northern Arkansas

That's disappointing to hear. When was the last GFS model to show some snow along I-30/I-20?

[iorange55]

The 0z GFS overall looks very similar to it's 12z run so far, confines the snow to central Oklahoma-northern Arkansas

Yeah, the maps are loading extra slow for me (so I might be behind) but it looks like it is showing heavier precip up there, but overall it looks pretty similar.

No surprise really, I don't expect it to start changing until tomorrow night/saturday. If it does indeed change.

[Ntxw]

Been awhile Turtle. With so many changes I can't remember which run did what.

iorange55, try this page http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ NCEP for awhile has been slow on loading I'm not sure why.

[iorange55]

Been awhile Turtle. With so many changes I can't remember which run did what.

iorange55, try this page http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ NCEP for awhile has been slow on loading I'm not sure why.

Ah, thanks for the link! I thought I was the only one having trouble with NCEP.

[BlueIce]

The GFS 0z run is looking better for Central Oklahoma. It has the most QPF I have seen in the last four runs. It should be interesting to see how this plays out. I am also intrigued by the potential for a follow up storm on new years eve/day.



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[Ntxw]

Canadian gives north central and northeast Texas some snow Christmas afternoon

[ouamber]

How does the Euro look? Any precip showing up? Or is going to be a dry storm? Hoping OK and parts of Texas can get some? The GFS showed very little precip.

[Ntxw]

0z Euro also has snow for north central and northeast Texas. Probably the best euro run to date, again eyeballing I'd say more than 1. Perhaps wxman57 will give us numbers in the morning!

Also has some for southern and eastern Oklahoma, bulls-eye is in southeast Oklahoma

[iorange55]

The runs overnight and even the 06z GFS run this morning have been in our favor. GFS is still a little north with the snow, but it looks like the 06z drops it a lot closer to North Texas.

Maybe this will be the day

Also...information overload from the DFW NWS

THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING EAST AND WILL
APPROACH NORTH TEXAS CHRISTMAS DAY. AS HAS BEEN STATED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DISCUSSIONS...THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL PLAY A
CRUCIAL ROLE IN WHAT THE UPPER LOW SUBSEQUENTLY DOES. MODELS
ALMOST ALWAYS HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THESE TYPES OF FRONTS IN THE
EXTENDED AS TEMPORAL AND VERTICAL RESOLUTIONS OF THE MODELS ARE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UNDERSTAND EVERYTHING THAT IS OCCURRING IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIFT THE SHALLOW FRONT NORTH
CHRISTMAS MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...BUT THIS
MODEL CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SOLUTION AND THINK IT
ISNT TOO LIKELY. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS /18Z ON THE 24TH/ HAS A
DECENT 850 FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD
AIR...AND THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO A STRONGER/DEEPER INITIAL
PUSH OF COLD AIR. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARPENING OF THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW...AND WHERE THIS OCCURS WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT. OPEN TROUGHS
WILL TRACK NEAR THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND THEREFORE...WHEREVER THE
SURFACE FRONT TIGHTENS AND THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...THE UPPER
LOW WILL TEND TO FOLLOW.

THE GFS IS OF COURSE THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON...DUE TO THE COLD FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO NEAR
THE RED RIVER CHRISTMAS MORNING. THE ECMWF TIGHTENS UP THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE CANADIAN FALLS BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
COLD FRONT IS...AND WE MUST NOTE THAT MODELS TYPICALLY
UNDERESTIMATE THE TIMING OF THESE COLD FRONTS...AND ANY INCREASE
IN THE SPEED OF THE FRONT WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO A FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW.

THE NEXT QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS MOISTURE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT RAIN SHOWERS ARE PROBABLE IN THE EASTERN ZONES
AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR. THE ECMWF HAS MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND
THUS MORE PRECIP. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT A DRY SLOT
WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER...WHICH SHOULD END
PRECIP FOR WHEREVER THIS LOCATION IS AT THE TIME. THE GFS ENDS
MOST PRECIP BEFORE TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ARRIVES TO NORTH
TEXAS...AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ABOVE 850MB IS SCARCE. THE ECMWF
HAS FAR MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND THUS SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. PERFECT PROGGING THE LOW CENTER PLACES THIS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...AND INTO THE METROPLEX.

GIVEN ALL THESE VARIABLES AND POSSIBILITIES...IT IS TIME TO TRY TO
COME UP WITH OUR SOLUTION OF THE CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT FORECAST.
GIVEN OUR UNDERSTANDING OF HOW THESE COLD FRONTS USUALLY
WORK...THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY RESEMBLE THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER...BUT HOW FAR SOUTH IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE EXACT
TRACK/MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL DECIDE HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW FALLS
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THINK THE CHANCE OF PRECIP IS DEFINITELY
THERE AND WILL FORECAST 20/30 POPS CHRISTMAS DAY. COLD AIR
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOULD BE ARRIVING BETWEEN 18Z-00Z FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND WILL MENTION -RA/-SN HERE. AFTER
00Z...WENT ALL SNOW FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF A JACKSBORO...DALLAS TO
CANTON LINE WHERE THE MOST PROBABLE POSITION OF THE BACKSIDE
PRECIP WOULD BE LOCATED. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
MOISTURE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION ACCUMULATIONS. CURRENT
THINKING BASED ON AVAILABLE DATA...IS ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE 26TH AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

[Portastorm]

And herein lies the storm which will make or break hearts in Texas next week! (Warning: link to IR satellite loop below is time sensitive)

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/EP1/COMP/

[wxman57]

Models (Euro/GFS) have definitely come into good agreement in the past 3-4 runs, though they differ on the exact placement on the snow band next Tue/Wed. GFS keeps it all north of the Red River. Euro is a little farther south, with 1/2 to 1 inch amounts a county or two south of the Red River and 3-5" across southern OK. I think if you live up in Dallas then there is a chance that snow will fall on Christmas afternoon/evening. South of there, I wouldn't get my hopes up.