Texas Winter 2012-2013

[dhweather]

The 06Z GFS sees it differently, with the heaviest rain occurring in the gulf of Mexico, where it's needed the most.

[CaptinCrunch]

If the 06Z NAM is right on rainfall totals, this would be great.

Could you imagin this system with next weeks cold airmass in place....OMG!!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

hmmmm lets see you folks are going to be swimming for your lives soon and you want freezing cold on top of that?????

Do you remember that frozen dugout I spoke about awhile ago ThunderSleetDreams?

[CaptinCrunch]

hmmmm lets see you folks are going to be swimming for your lives soon and you want freezing cold on top of that?????

Do you remember that frozen dugout I spoke about awhile ago ThunderSleetDreams?

We would have a little taste of Moose Jaw in the South....lol

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

hmmmm lets see you folks are going to be swimming for your lives soon and you want freezing cold on top of that?????

Do you remember that frozen dugout I spoke about awhile ago ThunderSleetDreams?

We would have a little taste of Moose Jaw in the South....lol

you fellows are truly certifiable!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Bring it! WE could use a week off down here!

[dhweather]

That would roughly be a meager 4.5 feet of snow, that's be more like weeks off.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Bring it! WE could use a week off down here!

Oh SS be careful who you play with.....they just ain't right IN THE HEAD!!!

[Portastorm]

Sounds like things are going to ramp up quickly this afternoon ... buckle your seatbeats, kiddies!


SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/08/13 1626Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES E 1615Z GG/LP
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT... MOD/HVY RAIN EVENT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
UL LOW AND STG WRAP AROUND JET NOSING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SUPPORTING NEW
CONVECTIVE GROWTH IN CENTRAL TEXAS. RECENT IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS CLOUD
TOP COOLING IN THE VIC OF REAL, BANDERA, AND KERR COUNTIES LOCATED ALONG
WHAT APPEARS IN WV TO BE A MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE/LINE EXTENDING
SW TO NE FROM MEXICO THRU SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND IS HAS ACTED AS A
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WITHIN THE DRY SLOT. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A 1.25"-1.5" PW MOISTURE PLUME PER SATELLITE BLENDED TPW BEING FEED
BY 30-40 KT SLY LLJ. GIVEN CLD TOP TEMPS AND PWS RAIN RATES COULD BE
ESTIMATED A BIT HIGHER BUT DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS LOWERS RATES TO AROUND
1"/HR...AND GIVEN CELL MOTIONS TOTALS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN 1"

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH RATES OF 1.5-2.0"/HR
IS MOVING ACROSS THE TX/LA BOARDER SUPPORTED BY SFC MST CONVERGENCE FROM
ELY AND SELY FLOW ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER ITS MOVEMENT IS BEGINNING
TO OUTRUN UL SUPPORT AND CLDS HAVE BEGUN TO GLACIATE IN VISIBLE/WARM
IN IR. STILL BLENDED TPW SHOWS DEEP SOUTHERLY MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE
MEXICAN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH VALUES STARTING TO REACH
1.75" AND GREATER NEAR BRO. HEIGHT FALLS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF IN MEXICO CONTINUE TO INCREASE SFC EASTERLIES ACROSS
LAND LENDING TO EXCELLENT SFC/LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FOR NEW
CONVECTION FOCUSED AT THE AXIS OF THE TPW PLUME JUST OFF BRO TO CRP BUT
ALSO WEAKLY ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TX COAST INTO LA.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1630-0000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK... ACROSS S CENT TX... A LOBE OF VORTICITY IS CURRENTLY
BEING SHED FROM THE MAIN UL ACROSS THE BIG BEND OF TX... IN A FEW
HOURS... THIS SUPPORT CONTINUES TO ROTATES OUT AND ADD TO INSTABILITY
ALOFT WITH SOME CAA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED ML CONVERGENCE LINE LIKELY LEADING TO UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE GROWTH POTENTIALLY ORIENTING ALONG THE CELL MOTION FOR
SOME TRAINING LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL EWX CWA.... THIS COULD
LEAD TO A NARROW SWATH OF HIGH TOTALS OF 2-3" POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED FF
THREAT.... HOWEVER ONE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR
BRO WILL ROB BEST MST CONVERGENCE.

FURTHER SOUTH/EAST...EXPECT SFC LOW TO DEEPEN ALONG TX COAST WITH
WARM/STNY FRONT TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN WITH COLD DEEP CONVECTION
ONLY LIFTING SLIGHTLY INTO COASTAL COUNTIES OF TX FROM CRP TO HOU.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING AND WITH DEEPER MST
PROFILE...MUCH MORE PROLIFIC WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 1.5" LIKELY AND
ISOALTED 3-4" TOTALS POSSIBLE.

[iorange55]

Oh, that crazy 12z GFS. Showing a 1064 high at the end of its run.

[ndale]

Interesting read.

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... y.html?m=1

Gave up trying to read the blue text on the blue background.From what I'm looking at, it's looking like the moisture is gone as the temps get cold enough for winter precip this weekend.

Sitting in a hotel room in cold, rainy Austin - not far from the Portastorm weather center. Will meet him for lunch tomorrow. I'm ready for some nice, warm sunshine. Been off the bike for 3 weeks with the cold and rain in Houston. Hope they get a bunch of rain here tomorrow. Don't need it in my neighborhood in Houston, but we'll probably get another 3-6 inches today/Wed.

Welcome to Austin Wxman57, sorry we didn't have the warmth you wanted. I don't like cold rain either but we are so moisture deprived I will take any rain we can get.

[dhweather]

Oh, that crazy 12z GFS. Showing a 1064 high at the end of its run.

Where?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Oh, that crazy 12z GFS. Showing a 1064 high at the end of its run.

Where?

I northern Alaska but WHOA. Well we know something will happen around that time if the SSW event has begun.

[Ntxw]

A little note about the SSW. Last year was not a major SSW, it was a mild case (the vortex was only moved to eastern Europe not split). Most years are not major like this one maybe a few per decade. A major will break it down and reverse the winds (has happened). We are pretty much certain North America will get frigid from it as the vortex is already settled over this side of the world. And we also now have ridging in place over the NE Pac. So the question is not who will get it (globally), it's how far south will it go based on teleconnections.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

You think the MJO will be 8-1-2 around the time the event occurs?

[Ntxw]

You think the MJO will be 8-1-2 around the time the event occurs?

Definitely. It's no coincidence the MJO decided to wake up and roar all of sudden. It is reacting to all the other players piecing the board together

[Ntxw]

Also, not sure if anyone's mentioned this, but gradient temperature pattern will be in place next week/weekend behind polar front. Euro is showing freezing rain for North Texas while GFS has a chilly rain in the 30s for Sunday night/Monday (it had snow in previous runs). I suspect the cold air will be very shallow and will try to push against the SE ridge. We'll see

[BigB0882]

Things seem to be getting interesting again. All the major players have shown up, we just need the ref to start to the game!

[gpsnowman]

Things seem to be getting interesting again. All the major players have shown up, we just need the ref to start to the game!

It sure is. Are we still in line for a series of fronts starting next week? I hope it is the start of something big and long lasting.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1225 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2013

TXZ147-161-162-175-081900-
FREESTONE TX-LEON TX-LIMESTONE TX-ROBERTSON TX-
1225 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL FREESTONE COUNTY
SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY
WESTERN LEON COUNTY
NORTHEASTERN ROBERTSON COUNTY

AT 1224 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GROESBECK OR NEAR
MARQUEZ...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MARQUEZ...JEWETT AND
BUFFALO.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3158 9635 3150 9593 3105 9626 3119 9649
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 217DEG 34KT 3123 9629

$$