Texas Winter 2012-2013

[iorange55]

12z GFS is cold!

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is cold!

For the Lakes and northeast. At the same time the Euro is giving us frigid temps in the teens, 12z GFS says we push 60! It is clueless though, after 192 everything is all over the place at 5h, no continuation or sense

[arizona_sooner]

We had the fertilizer snow on the ground also up here in Tulsa. Not a lot, looked like fertilizer - probably was graupel and not sleet...

[orangeblood]

haha, if you live in Canada. Over the past 3 days, this mornings 12Z GFS run is the warmest of the bunch. After the middle of this week, the 850 line doesn't even make it down into North Texas. If the PNA gets too positive, like the GFS is showing, than most of the cold air will pass us by to the east. A neutral to slightly positive PNA has given Texas most of their severe outbreaks.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: haha, if you live in Canada. Over the past 3 days, this mornings 12Z GFS run is the warmest of the bunch. After the middle of this week, the 850 line doesn't even make it down into North Texas. If the PNA gets too positive, like the GFS is showing, than most of the cold air will pass us by to the east. A neutral to slightly positive PNA has given Texas most of their severe outbreaks.

Is it even possible for it to do that (even with +PNA) when the GFS at the same time is raging the NAO+? Something is fishy with that model

[orangeblood]

12z GFS is cold!

For the Lakes and northeast. At the same time the Euro is giving us frigid temps in the teens, 12z GFS says we push 60! It is clueless though, after 192 everything is all over the place at 5h, no continuation or sense

Yeah, it looks like it's having trouble with the Arctic region and what to do with the wind reversal now taking place at the 1 mb level, transitioning down to the 30 mb level. It'll probably take the GFS a couple of days to piece all of this Strat Warming together.

Edit: 12Z Canadian coming back in line with last night's Euro....1050 + high crossing the Canadian border late next weekend.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: haha, if you live in Canada. Over the past 3 days, this mornings 12Z GFS run is the warmest of the bunch. After the middle of this week, the 850 line doesn't even make it down into North Texas. If the PNA gets too positive, like the GFS is showing, than most of the cold air will pass us by to the east. A neutral to slightly positive PNA has given Texas most of their severe outbreaks.

Is it even possible for it to do that (even with +PNA) when the GFS at the same time is raging the NAO+? Something is fishy with that model

With an extreme negative AO, NO WAY!!

[orangeblood]

Speaking of Strat Warming, check out this animation showing the PV split with a new center setting up shop over North America

[Palmer divide shadow]

We have plenty of cold to share with you guys in colorado.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im curious to what the Euro will come up with. The GFS is obviously all over the place but the Euro has had an arctic blast two runs in a row now. I think/hoping it has a better handle on the SSW event. The event has taken place, now we just need to wait and see where the PV goes.

Of course i want hardcore cold at least once this winter so im biased, but i think the Euro is onto the situation

[Ntxw]

I figured out why the GFS went the way it did!

[Rgv20]

In about 8 days the 12zCMC has a similar 500mb set up to the 0zECMWF

[Palmer divide shadow]

http://i1353.photobucket.com/albums/q66 ... 0d9984.jpg

[Palmer divide shadow]

That setup looks like it takes the brunt of the cold air east of the spine of the rockies, which puts the coldest air in the greatlakes and southeast regions.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think most of the really really cold air will be around the Great Lakes or Chicago area because of the PV's location. That doesnt mean it will be plenty cold here. It just means it will be BRUTAL cold for the Great Lakes region. The high according to the CMC or the Euro is in a prime location for cold air to intrude our region

[Ntxw]

The coldest air in any outbreak will always be in the Lakes/Northern plains (right underneath the PV). Key for us is location of highs - we want something in Montana or Dakotas to funnel cold air back into the front range- and strength of it pushing the western chunk very far to the south.

[Palmer divide shadow]

Yep nwtx very true.

[BigB0882]

I figured out why the GFS went the way it did!

So does that mean you think it is way off?

[Ntxw]

I figured out why the GFS went the way it did!

So does that mean you think it is way off?

It's bogus. Every model, even it's ensembles keep the AO extremely negative. The AO has spent 5 days total positive this entire winter and with a stratwarm in place there is just no way.

[BigB0882]

Thanks. I guess I will disregard this run of the GFS and future runs until it figures out how to handle the start warm event.