2013 U.S Severe Weather: Videos / Photos / Stats / Forecasts

[cycloneye]

I am creating this thread (Like a mother thread) to allow the peeps to keep track of how the 2013 severe weather season in the U.S is doing in terms of activity. Of course,the members can post as we always do in this forum individual threads of specific dates of upcomming severe weather events. In this thread, the peeps can discuss all about how the season is doing in terms of the stats.Also videos and photos of 2013 tornadoes and the aftermath damage will be posted and the forecasts for the next severe weather events will be posted as well. Let's see when the severe activity starts to pick up this year and let's see if it will be an active season or not.

Below is the Wikipedia information of the 2013 Severe Weather Season and the graphics that update with every new information that SPC releases of how things are going.

2013 Severe Weather Season Wikipedia information

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/mo ... mmary.html

[cycloneye]

One of the questions about how active or not the 2013 U.S Severe Season will be may be the drought that persists in the Central Plains. We will see down the road how things evolve in terms of any effects the drought conditions may have.

[cycloneye]

Let's see if some severe weather occurs on the second week of 2013.

[CrazyC83]

If that drought persists, I expect another relatively quiet year in the Plains, with most of the activity focused on the Southeast and Great Lakes.

[cycloneye]

SPC has a slight risk area for South Texas on the 8th.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CST SUN JAN 06 2013

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TX...

...TX...

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST UPPER LOW
OVER NRN MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EWD DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD AS
MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ROTATES TOWARD THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VALLEY LATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR NWD ADVANCEMENT OF MARITIME
TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX/LOWER TX COAST. AS SFC DEW
POINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION WITHIN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
AS COASTAL/WARM FRONT ADVANCES INLAND BUOYANCY SHOULD INCREASE SUCH
THAT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...BOTH ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
AND PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE PRESENT. STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL
ENCOURAGE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION ACROSS TX
WITH TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX ELEVATED AND LESS BUOYANT IN
NATURE. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH NEAR-SFC BASED ACTIVITY
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION. NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED BY COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION BENEATH
THE WARM CONVEYOR.

..DARROW.. 01/06/2013

[cycloneye]

Here are the past three years to compare with what the 2013 severe season will be like at the end. Notice that 2010 and 2011 were very active and 2012 was much less active.


2010







2011








2012





http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/mo ... .html#2013

[cycloneye]

Forecast for slight risk on the 8th and 9th for South Texas and Southern States.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST SUN JAN 06 2013

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TX...

...SOUTH TX...

SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN MEXICO AND
EJECT TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRAND RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IN FACT IT APPEARS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL NOT SPREAD INTO DEEP SOUTH
TX UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

CURRENT THINKING IS MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL STRUGGLE A BIT TO
MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD BUT FAVORABLE SELY TRAJECTORIES
OFF THE WRN GULF BASIN WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEW
POINTS TO ADVECT INTO SOUTH TX AS COASTAL/WARM FRONT ADVANCES NWD.
WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT IN THEIR TIMING OF PACIFIC
COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO SOUTH TX THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL DRIVE WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR. AFTER 00Z THE SUPERCELL
THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AS 70-80KT MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX BEGINS TO ROTATE TOWARD THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES EXHIBIT
VERY STRONG SHEAR WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE BUOYANCY AND NEAR-SFC
BASED INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...A SQUALL LINE MAY
ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD SPREAD
TOWARD THE LOWER TX COAST BY DAYBREAK. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
EVEN SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.

..DARROW.. 01/07/2013



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CST MON JAN 07 2013

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN TX/LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...SERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...

07/00Z ECMWF IS THE FAVORED MODEL THIS EVENING REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW AS IT EJECTS ACROSS NRN MEXICO ACROSS NWRN TX
INTO CNTRL OK. IT APPEARS A STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE SERN QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD THEN TRANSLATE TOWARD ERN TX WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER FLOW/HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER BY EARLY
EVENING.

BY WEDNESDAY VERY MOIST MT AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WRN GULF
BASIN AND PW VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-2 INCHES WILL ADVECT INLAND
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND INTERIOR AS FAR NORTH AS I-20 WHERE A SFC
WARM FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW. VERY MOIST BUT
POOR LAPSE RATE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD YIELD MORE THAN
ADEQUATE CAPE FOR NEAR SFC-BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...MUCH OF IT
ELEVATED...WILL BE NOTED WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PW VALUES.
FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY SUGGEST SUSTAINED ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE BUT ONE OR MORE
SQUALL LINE-TYPE MCSS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER FORCING/COLD FRONT. FOR THIS REASON THE GREATEST SEVERE
RISK MAY BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO SEEM POSSIBLE
GIVEN THAT SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK.

..DARROW.. 01/07/2013

[cycloneye]

SPC update of Southern Texas slight risk.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST MON JAN 07 2013

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SCNTRL TX...

...SCNTRL TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PART OF MEXICO ON
TUESDAY AS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
SYSTEM. IN RESPONSE...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
SCNTRL TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN TAKING PLACE DURING THE DAY. MODEL
FORECASTS INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S F IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP MODERATE
INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS. BY
TUESDAY EVENING...THE MODELS APPEAR TO DEVELOP AN MCS ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EWD
ACROSS SCNTRL TX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 03Z/WED ABOUT 100 STATUTE MILES SOUTH OF SAN
ANTONIO SWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER GENERALLY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 55 TO 60 KT RANGE. THIS
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL
FORMATION ESPECIALLY IF CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE WITHIN THE
DEVELOPING MCS OR IF STORMS CAN INITIATE OUT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE A BIT SLOW TO MOVE TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...THE NAM
MOVES THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE RED RIVER
AROUND 06Z TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATE OF AN APPROACH WOULD DEVELOP
THE MCS IN WEAKENING INSTABILITY KEEPING THE SEVERE THREAT MORE
ISOLATED. GIVEN THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT ON THE MARGINAL
SIDE...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD PROBABLY BE FOR A TORNADO OR WIND
DAMAGE.

..BROYLES.. 01/07/2013

[CrazyC83]

Somewhat off-topic, but a sad day at the Storm Prediction Center.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/Racy/

Jonathan Racy, lead forecaster, died today at age 42 from cancer. Thoughts and prayers go out to his family, friends and everyone at the SPC.

[weatherdude1108]

Edit: Just saw that after posting this. Sad news! My thoughts and prayers are with his family, friends, colleagues, and loved ones.

I know this isn't the U.S., it's Australia back in November 2012. But is severe weather. Found it the other day. Seriously INSANE hail.

"Brisbane Hail Storm Nov 18th 2012 (Westlake)"

http://youtu.be/uh9S0MdSYpk

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 PM CST THU JAN 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF QUITMAN...
SOUTHERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MERIDIAN...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 351 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR QUITMAN
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
STONEWALL BY 400 PM CST...
SABLE AND MIDDLETON BY 410 PM CST...
SAVOY BY 420 PM CST...
MEEHAN AND INCREASE BY 425 PM CST...
ZERO BY 430 PM CST...
NELLIEBURG BY 435 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8872 3202 8892 3251 8890 3232 8843
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 197DEG 23KT 3209 8879

$$

GRG

[cycloneye]

Video of first Tornado of 2013

It occured on January 10th in Iberville Parish,Louisiana.

http://www.wbrz.com/videoplayer/?video_ ... egories=58

[cycloneye]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF FAR NERN TX / SWRN-CNTRL-NERN AR / MO
BOOTHEEL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 121925Z - 122200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR TRANSITION TO SURFACE-BASED STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONCE THIS BECOMES
APPARENT...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW 30
MI E DAL AND A COLD FRONT DRAPED SW TO NE FROM NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX THROUGH W-CNTRL AR AND INTO SERN MO. THE SRN PORTION OF
THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EWD INTO FAR NERN TX BY EARLY EVENING AS
THE LOW DEVELOPS NEWD...BUT THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER AR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OR SLIGHTLY NWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AS SUCH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ LEADING TO A
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NWD INVOF THE
FRONT OVER CNTRL-NERN AR.

DESPITE A THICK MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY RETARDING SURFACE
HEATING...TEMPS ARE GRADUALLY WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG
MLCAPE WHEN MODIFYING THE 12Z SHV RAOB --FEATURING A 14-15 G/KG MEAN
MIXING RATIO-- FOR THE 19Z TXK SURFACE OBSERVATION. MOIST LOW
LEVELS COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ TO 55 KTS BY 00Z...WILL
ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS /500 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH/ AND FACILITATE AT LEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES WITH A MESSY
CONVECTIVE MODE FOCUSED NEAR THE FRONT.

..SMITH/HART.. 01/12/2013

[cycloneye]

Some damage has occured with this January 12 event in Kentucky.

[cycloneye]

The big question is if the 2013 severe season will be active as it started very early like in 2011. This graphic doesn't include the January 12 activity.

[cycloneye]

Tornado Watch issued

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

TORNADO WATCH 3 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC001-011-013-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-037-039-045-051-053-
055-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-079-081-085-091-093-095-
097-099-103-105-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-133-135-
137-139-141-145-147-149-130600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0003.130112T2320Z-130113T0600Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLAY CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CROSS DALLAS
FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT
GREENE HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LAWRENCE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER
LONOKE MILLER MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA
OUACHITA PERRY PIKE
POINSETT POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
SALINE SCOTT SEVIER
SHARP ST. FRANCIS STONE
UNION VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

TORNADO WATCH 3 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MOC069-155-130600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0003.130112T2320Z-130113T0600Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$


ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...

[cycloneye]

It was an EF-2 tornado:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
131 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0318 PM TORNADO HAMPTON 37.28N 88.37W
01/12/2013 F2 LIVINGSTON KY NWS STORM SURVEY

LATE REPORT. EF-2 TORNADO. BEGAN ON SW SIDE OF TOWN AND
TRAVELED NE ALONG HWY 838 ENDING 1.5 MILES NE OF TOWN. PK
WND 120 MPH. PATH LENGTH 1.75 MILES. PATH WIDTH 175
YARDS. SANCTUARY OF ONE CHURCH COLLASPED. SECOND CHURCH
HAD STEEPLE BLOWN OFF AND SOME SHINGLE DAMAGE. SEVERAL
TREES BLOWN DOWN/SNAPPED. FEW HOMES RECEIVED SHINGLE
DAMAGE.


&&

$$

SMITTY

[newtotex]

What do y'll think will be in store for this springs severe weather season?
More specifically what do you think is in store for Texas and Oklahoma

[CrazyC83]

What do y'll think will be in store for this springs severe weather season?
More specifically what do you think is in store for Texas and Oklahoma

I'd personally expect below normal, at least early in the season, due to the drought. Maybe more activity later if it moistens.

[cycloneye]

11 Tornadoes have occured so far in the 2013 season.

Code: Select all

TORNADO TOTALS AND RELATED DEATHS...THROUGH MON JAN 21 2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2013

       ...NUMBER OF TORNADOES...    NUMBER OF       KILLER
                                    TORNADO DEATHS  TORNADOES
    ..2013.. 2012 2011 2010 3YR               3YR             3YR
    PREL ACT  ACT  ACT  ACT  AV 13  12  11 10  AV  13 12 11 10 AV
JAN  11    -  79   16   30   42  0   2   0  0   1   0  2  0  0  1
FEB   -    -  57   63    1   40  -  15   1  0   5   -  7  1  0  3
MAR   -    - 154   75   33   87  -  42   1  1  14   - 10  1  1  4
APR   -    - 206  758  139  368  -   6 363 11 127   -  1 43  2 15
MAY   -    - 121  326  304  250  -   0 178  7  62   -  0  9  4  4
JUN   -    - 110  160  324  198  -   4   3 12   6   -  2  1  6  3
JUL   -    -  37  103  146   95  -   0   0  2   1   -  0  0  1  0
AUG   -    -  38   57   55   50  -   0   2  1   1   -  0  2  1  1
SEP   -    -  39   51   57   49  -   0   0  2   1   -  0  0  2  1
OCT   -    -  37   23  108   56  -   0   0  0   0   -  0  0  0  0
NOV   -    -   7*  44   53   35  -   0   5  0   2   -  0  2  0  1
DEC   -    -  51*  15   32   33  -   0   0  9   3   -  0  0  4  1
---  --   -- ---  ---- ---- ---- -  -- --- -- ---   - -- -- -- --
SUM  11    - 936* 1691 1282 1303 0  69 553 45 222   0 22 59 21 34

* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ACTUAL TORNADOES. FINAL VALUES WILL
BE ENTERED WHEN STORM DATA IS PUBLISHED LATER IN 2013.

COMPARISONS BETWEEN 2013 PRELIMINARY COUNTS AND ACTUAL COUNTS FROM
PRIOR YEARS SHOULD BE AVOIDED.

PREL = 2013 PRELIMINARY COUNT FROM ALL NWS LOCAL STORM REPORTS.
ACT  = ACTUAL TORNADO COUNT BASED ON NWS STORM DATA SUBMISSIONS.

..CARBIN..01/22/2013