Caribbean - Central America Weather

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

please tell me the temperature there Cycloneye......I may just come vist!

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST SUN JAN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AN
ELONGATED...TUTT-LIKE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME LOCATED JUST
WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND
THEN LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
TODAY...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A DRIER...
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY
THURSDAY ALSO...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS. THAT
SAID...BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND A COUPLE OF PASSING SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH A
PART OF TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY
REAL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER...AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IF SHOWERS WERE TO BECOME SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE
COULD HELP TO ENHANCE THEM FURTHER...BUT THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THEN
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN VERY
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DEVELOPING
VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...WITH VERY LARGE BREAKING
WAVES...FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. ALL LOCAL BEACH GOERS...
SWIMMERS AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WATER
UNTIL THESE SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.

HIGH SURF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VARIOUS NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING
COASTAL AREAS. PLEASE REFER TO ALL LOCAL MARINE PRODUCTS FOR
FORECAST DETAILS AND AREAL DELINEATIONS OF
WARNINGS/WATCHES/ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 80 72 / 0 10 20 30
STT 83 71 83 71 / 0 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

please tell me the temperature there Cycloneye......I may just come vist!

Hi Saska. Here are the temperature averages that we have and you will like it.When will you come?

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
 YESTERDAY
  MAXIMUM         82    258 PM  88    1981  83     -1       84
  MINIMUM         72    610 PM  63    1965  72      0       71
  AVERAGE         77                        78     -1       78


[cycloneye]

January 13 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy over northern parishes, mostly sunny elsewhere.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Fair and windy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:41 a.m.
 5:51 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:46 a.m.
 5:56 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:47 a.m.
 5:57 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

The conditions in the seas are very rough and dangerous. Even the majority of the surfers dont venture out there,only a few brave ones.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1221 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2013

...LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...

.LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THESE SWELLS
WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH VERY LARGE
BREAKING WAVES AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS...AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT WATER LEVEL RISES THAT WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL
FLOODING.

PRZ001-002-005-008-012-VIZ001-140900-
/O.UPG.TJSJ.CF.A.0001.130113T2200Z-130115T0400Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.CF.Y.0001.130113T1621Z-130115T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130115T2100Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-CULEBRA-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
1221 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2013

...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AST TUESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AST MONDAY. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WAVES AND SURF: 8 TO 11 FOOT SWELLS WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 16 TO
20 FEET AND LOCALLY HIGHER.

* TIMING: BUILDING THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING OF IMMEDIATE SHORE FRONT
PROPERTY AND CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO BOATS AND PIERS ARE
POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION AND FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS WILL RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED THREAT OF LIFE AND
PROPERTY WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND
INUNDATION MAY CAUSE WATERFRONT AND SHORELINE ACCESS ROADS TO
CLOSE.

* COASTAL FLOODING: TOTAL WATER RISES OF 2 TO 4 ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE.

THE TIMES OF SOME HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: TONIGHT 10:17 PM AT 1.09 FEET.
MONDAY 11:13 AM AT 1.63 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT 11:18 PM AT 1.13 FEET.

ARECIBO: TONIGHT 9:54 PM AT 1.29 FEET.
MONDAY 10:28 AM AT 1.88 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT 10:51 PM AT 1.36 FEET.

AGUADILLA: TONIGHT 9:38 PM AT 1.06 FEET.
MONDAY 10:17 AM AT 1.53 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT 10:30 PM AT 1.11 FEET.

FAJARDO: TONIGHT 10:05 PM AT 1.21 FEET.
MONDAY 10:47 AM AT 1.62 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT 11:03 PM AT 1.24 FEET.

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: MONDAY 11:12 AM AT 1.1 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT 09:58 PM AT 0.32 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...SWIMMERS AND SURFERS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE
WATER UNTIL THESE VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE. PERSONS
ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES
SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES INTO
THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY
OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS...BATTERING WAVE
WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS
SWIMMING CONDITIONS...AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BECOME LOCATED JUST WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MASS TO INDUCE A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ALTHOUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...UNDER
THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...PATCHES OF MOISTURE CANT BE RULED
OUT FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS IS TUESDAY...AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF STATIONS THROUGH 14/22Z. HOWEVER...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AFT 14/08Z TIL 14/14Z MAINLY IN THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND LUQUILLO RANGE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. WITH WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE FIRST 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THESE SWELLS WILL
RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...WITH VERY LARGE BREAKING
WAVES...FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS...AND LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING. ALL
LOCAL BEACH GOERS...SWIMMERS AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS SHOULD STAY
OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE. HIGH SURF
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING COASTAL AREAS.
PLEASE REFER TO ALL LOCAL MARINE PRODUCTS FOR FORECAST DETAILS
AND AREAL DELINEATIONS OF WARNINGS/WATCHES/ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 72 81 / 10 20 30 30
STT 71 83 71 83 / 10 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The seas continue to be rough so dont venture to the water.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST MON JAN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME...AN
ELONGATED...TUTT-LIKE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME LOCATED JUST
WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND THEN LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT SAID...BANDS AND PATCHES
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME
TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND REDUCED THE AMOUNT...BUT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SURGE OF MOISTURE LOCALLY...BUT NOW FOR MOSTLY
TUESDAY...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY
REAL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF
SHOWERS WERE TO BECOME SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE COULD HELP TO ENHANCE THEM
FURTHER...BUT THIS IS STILL NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TODAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VERY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST NOON AST ON WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...NEARBY BUOYS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 8.5 TO 11.5 FOOT
SWELLS AT 13 TO 16 OR 17 SECONDS AND THESE LARGE AND LONG PERIOD
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS...WITH VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES...FREQUENT AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS...COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. ALL LOCAL BEACH
GOERS...SWIMMERS AND SURFERS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL
THESE SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.

HIGH SURF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VARIOUS NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING
COASTAL AREAS. PLEASE REFER TO ALL LOCAL MARINE PRODUCTS FOR
FORECAST DETAILS AND AREAL DELINEATIONS OF
WARNINGS/WATCHES/ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 72 81 72 / 30 30 30 30
STT 82 71 83 71 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

January 14 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy over northern parishes, mostly sunny elsewhere.

Afternoon: Expect periods of light to moderate showers over sections of the island.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:41 a.m.
 5:51 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:46 a.m.
 5:56 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:47 a.m.
 5:57 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

Well,sad news to report as a person drowned in a beach despite the warnings about the high waves and rip currents. My condolenses to his family.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 26219.html

The strong waves of pine nuts yesterday caused the second drowning there this year, on this occasion, a 40-year-old man, Juan Sánchez Hernández.

The individual, a merchant father of three children (8, 15 and 17 years), was enjoying a family picnic in the area of La Pocita of Loíza.

According to agent Enrique Alverio, Sanchez Hernandez was standing on a reef next to his eight year old son and a friend when strong waves dragged them offshore. His friend and the child managed to return to shore. The body of the deceased was spotted by a police helicopter to a quarter of a mile from the shore, after which it was rescued.

"A coup occurred in the head, forehead, apparently was unconscious", said Alverio Rivera.

Child Correa, of the State Agency for the management of emergency and disaster management, regretted what happened since, he said, in the area is it had warned, in captions, of the danger of strong hangovers. "Be warned but is discretion of the person," he said.

Rose Velazquez, of the Office of emergency management, Loíza, said that even searched the body of a tourist drowned in the area on 1 January. "Everything has a purpose of the Lord," said, meanwhile, the daughter of the deceased, who yesterday was late together widow, brothers and other relatives waiting in the grounds of the maritime unit of Loiza for Institute of forensic sciences collected the body.

[cycloneye]

Good news that the rough seas will slowly go down.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST MON JAN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH LINKS A CUTOFF LOW OVER
JAMAICA AND A DEEP LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WILL PULL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA LATER IN
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE CUT-OFF LOW
WILL WEAKEN...OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND CROSS PUERTO RICO ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL ALWAYS BE WEAKER THAN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE JUST OVER 1400 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ARE SENDING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR TOWARD
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL STALL OVER AND TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK LEAVING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. FLOW
FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TODAY WERE MOST CONCENTRATED
OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF CENTRAL PUERTO RICO BUT LIGHT SHOWERS
WERE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE ISLAND. NOTABLY...THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS AND MAYAGUEZ SAW LITTLE RAIN. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT MID-WEEK AND THEN BECOME EASTERLY. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW MORE BANDS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA. THE NEXT ONE SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING
THE MORNING AND PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE SHOWERS
LIKELY IN THE SAN JUAN AREA AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF PUERTO RICO NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOWER CHANCES TAPER OFF BUT
NEVER REALLY DISAPPEAR AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND EXPECT THAT THE
EAST COAST WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
TRYING TO BRING THE WEST COAST SHOWERS FROM CONVECTION...BUT THIS SHOULD
BE DISCOUNTED CONSIDERABLY. NO MAJOR FEATURES ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 81 72 81 / 70 70 30 30
STT 72 83 71 85 / 40 40 20 30

[cycloneye]

Some very brave surfers are enjoying those huge waves in Rincon on the west coast of PR.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Still big waves and rip currents are arriving to the north coasts of the NE Caribbean islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST TUE JAN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME...AN
ELONGATED...TUTT-LIKE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED JUST
WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BAND (SURGE) OF MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN
MENTIONED THE PAST FEW DAYS...IS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE COMBINATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE AND AN "OVERALL" DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL STILL BE BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND LOCALLY NUMEROUS PASSING SHOWERS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS HAVE
PEAKED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THESE SWELLS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

NEARBY BUOYS HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED 7 TO 9 FOOT SWELLS AT 11 TO
14 SECONDS OVERNIGHT...WITH NWW3 FORECASTING AND BUOY 41043
BEGINNING TO VERIFY (NOW 10 FEET AT 12 SECONDS) A SECONDARY SURGE
OF SWELLS FOR TODAY. STILL EXPECT THESE LARGE AND LONG PERIOD
SWELLS TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...WITH
LARGE BREAKING WAVES...FREQUENT AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...BEACH
EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING. IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT ALL LOCAL BEACH GOERS...SWIMMERS AND SURFERS STAY OUT OF THE
WATER UNTIL THESE SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.

GIVEN THAT THE PEAK OF SWELLS AND THEREFORE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AND 18 TO 20+ FOOT BREAKERS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED...THE HIGH SURF WARNING WAS REPLACED WITH A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WAS DISCONTINUED FOR MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY...VIEQUES AND
ST CROIX...AS 10 FOOT BREAKING WAVES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS...BUT LOCALLY ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE.

ALSO...STILL ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE...WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM
AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAME AREAS THAT NOW HAVE THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 72 81 73 / 70 30 30 40
STT 83 71 85 75 / 40 20 30 20

[cycloneye]

January 15 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers over sections of the island.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:41 a.m.
 5:52 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:46 a.m.
 5:57 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:47 a.m.
 5:58 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
337 PM AST TUE JAN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH BETWEEN A STRONG LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND A WEAKER CUT OFF LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK AND THE CUT OFF LOW OPENS INTO
A TROUGH AND PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND PERSISTS UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND BUILD SOUTHWEST
BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 10 DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND BECOMES ANCHORED IN THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING BACK TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. THESE WINDS WILL CARRY PATCHES AND BANDS OF MOISTURE THAT
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE SURROUNDING WATERS AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER WERE STILL MOVING IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC OVER PUERTO RICO AS OF 3 PM AST BUT MOST AMOUNTS
ACCUMULATED DURING THE DAY WERE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. THERE
IS A DRIER AREA BETWEEN THE BAND THAT JUST PASSED AND THE NEXT
BAND THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THEN SOME MORE
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TO THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TONIGHT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DIP TO THEIR LOWEST POINT IN THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS AND THEN REBOUND TO AROUND 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES BEFORE SUNDAY. THIS
TREND IS REFLECTIVE OF THE GENERALLY CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN THAT
WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FEATURES...FRONTS OR LOWS TO ALTER THE STATUS QUO OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE WIND WARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO IN
GENERALLY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI/BVI AND NORTH AND EASTERN PR. TJSJ 15/12Z
SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS ALL
THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 25K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND
STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW 7 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL COME
DOWN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 73 82 / 30 30 40 50
STT 73 84 74 85 / 20 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

Here is the 2012 weather review of rainfall totals and temperature in PR/USVI.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=2012_review

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST WED JAN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL YIELD TO
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVR THE WRN CARIBBEAN LATER IN
THE WEEK. RIDGE THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
FLATTENS MID NEXT WEEK AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS ERN
NOAM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WHILE MODELS MAINTAIN A PRETTY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
LATEST GFS SUGGESTS CLOUD CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES TO AFFECT THE AREA OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. SO EXPECT TO
SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF A LIGHT SHOWER EACH
DAY BUT AMOUNTS WILL ONLY AVERAGE A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
WHILE CLOUD CVR MAY TEND TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT...1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES ARE FCST TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS ARE ALSO FCST TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND A COL REGION DEVELOPS NEAR OUR AREA.

NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS) SHOWS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING PRETTY MUCH INTACT THROUGH DAY 10 FRI JAN
25.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...NNE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS BREAKING WAVES WILL STILL HOVER AROUND THE 10 FT ADVZY
THRESHOLD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY BUT SHOULD GO BELOW IT TONIGHT.
HIGH SURF ADVZY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE FIRE RISK SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA...WEST COAST
OF PR...ST. THOMAS AND ST. CROIX THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WILL LIKELY OFFSET ANY NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT CLOUD COVER MIGHT
HAVE. WINDS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY EARLY NEXT WEEK REDUCING THE
FIRE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 72 81 72 / 20 20 20 20
STT 83 74 85 74 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

January 16 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers over sections of the island.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:42 a.m.
 5:53 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:47 a.m.
 5:58 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:48 a.m.
 5:59 p.m.
 


[Macrocane]

Here is the 2012 weather review of rainfall totals and temperature in PR/USVI.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=2012_review

Thanks cycloneye, I love this climatology things

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST WED JAN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AS WELL AS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE USVI LATE IN THE MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA...AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE PATTERN AND THUS A GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN WITH VERY LOW PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITES IMAGES THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTED NUMEROUS PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED
IN THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION. SOME OF THESE PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME
TO TIME DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE WHILE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCURS DURING THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TONIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS COMBINED WITH MODERATE TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
DUE TO CIGS AT TNCM AND TKPK...TIST AND TJMZ BUT WITH CONDS IMPROVG
AFT 17/02Z. LLVL WINDS 10 TO 20 KT BELOW 10 KFT. TOPS OF CLOUDS
BELOW 10 KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 72 81 / 40 30 30 30
STT 74 85 74 84 / 40 30 20 20

[Macrocane]

Finally, after one of the warmest starts of a year I can remember, a new strong cold front is on its way to Central America

EXPECT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO PRODUCE STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO PUSHES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
35-50 KT TONIGHT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 45-50 KT WINDS
CONTINUING FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO UNTIL FRI MORNING...BUT
GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
UNTIL MON MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN A SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
PERSISTENT STRONG PRES GRADIENT IN CENTRAL AMERICA. GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE STRONG PERSISTENT NE WINDS FRI
THROUGH MON IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS
WILL EXTEND FAR DOWNWIND FROM SOURCE REGIONS NEAR TEHUANTEPEC
AND PAPAGAYO...RESULTING IN VERY LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED SEA
HEIGHTS IN NE SWELL THU THROUGH SAT NIGHT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM
05N TO 14N E OF 115W.